KBO Picks for Thursday, April 29

Wednesday was a low-scoring night in the KBO, with no team scoring more than five runs. Three games were decided by two runs or fewer, with the Hanwha Eagles and LG Twins both failing to put a single run on the board. The current midweek series around the league will conclude on Thursday before a fresh weekend set gets underway on Friday.

Let’s pick some winners using MyBookie’s new batch of odds ahead of Thursday’s KBO slate.

Hanwha Eagles vs. Kia Tigers

Kia picked up a second-straight win over Hanwha on Wednesday with an easy 4-0 triumph. The Eagles couldn’t muster anything against Eui-lee Lee, who finished with 10 strikeouts and just two hits allowed in six dominant innings of work. The Tigers’ pitching staff allowed just three hits all game long, and they’ll look to complete the three-game sweep over Hanwha at home on Thursday.

The series finale pits a pair of American big leaguers against one another. Daniel Mengden, who pitched in the majors for the Oakland A’s, will take the ball for Kia. Hanwha will counter with lefty Ryan Carpenter, who previously plied his craft with the Detroit Tigers.

Mengden is fresh off of his best KBO outing to date. The right-hander struck out nine while allowing just a run on three hits in a win over Samsung in his most recent start. Mengden is 1-1 on the season with a 3.97 ERA through his first four starts, and tonight he’ll be facing the weakest offense in the entire league in Hanwha.

Carpenter, another KBO rookie, has been even more impressive. The 30-year-old hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any game through his first four starts, a stretch that includes several tough opponents including the Twins, Dinos, and Bears.

Carpenter is only 1-1 after getting no run support in his loss against LG last time out, but this guy might just be too good for this league. Carpenter has struck out 24 through 22.1 innings of work while yielding just 16 hits.

Hanwha is an even-money moneyline underdog here, while the Tigers are listed at -140 on the road. The under on 7.5 runs looks appealing at -107 odds given the quality of the pitchers here, but I’m inclined to take a shot on the Eagles. Carpenter has been untouchable to this point, and he seems to give this team its best chance to actually win moving forward. Take Hanwha on the moneyline.

KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers

The KT Wiz crushed SSG Landers 14-5 on Tuesday, but SSG battled back with a 4-2 win in the rematch on Wednesday. The two teams will play the rubber match of their three-game set at Incheon-Munhak on Thursday.

SSG is a -120 home favorite, but KT still have -113 moneyline odds of their own to win the game outright on the road. Jong-hun Park will go for SSG, while Hyeong-jun So is the probable starter for KT. This game comes with an over/under of 9.5 runs, which is tied for the second-highest on tonight’s slate.

Park, a 29-year-old righty, is 2-0 so far this season with a 2.45 ERA. He’s actually fresh off of his worst outing of the young season after yielding four runs on seven hits in his last start against the Kiwoom Heroes. Park has a career 4.60 ERA at the KBO level, and he has been a regular in the Landers’ rotation since 2015. He hasn’t posted an ERA north of 5.00 in a season since 2016, so he has become a reliable arm for SSG over the years.

So is a 19-year-old righty in his second season with the Wiz. He made 24 starts and impressed with a 3.86 ERA as a rookie last year. Through his first three outings of 2021, he has no record with a more inflated 5.52 ERA. The youngster only struck out 92 hitters in 133 innings a year ago, so his 3.86 ERA may have been a bit on the lucky side.

I like the Landers here with Park on the mound. The under on 9.5 runs also looks viable considering neither pitcher has been bad over the past few years. SSG at -120 is the safer bet, but take a shot on the under if you’re feeling frisky.

Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins

The Lotte Giants picked up a 3-0 win over the LG Twins on Wednesday night. We thought that game had the potential to turn into a pitcher’s duel between Dan Straily and Casey Kelly, and that’s exactly what went down. Straily held the Twins’ bats scoreless on just two hits in six efficient innings of work, while Kelly allowed just two runs on four hits himself.

We don’t have quite as appealing a pitching matchup in store for the series finale, but we do have a pair of ex-San Francisco Giants squaring off against one another. Andrew Suarez will face Enderson Franco. These two were actually teammates briefly back in 2019 with the Giants. Suarez and the Twins are massive -243 moneyline favorites against Franco and the Lotte Giants (+170) on Thursday.

Suarez has been electric in his first tour of duty in the KBO. The southpaw is 3-1 thus far with a 1.17 ERA. He has allowed exactly zero runs in all three of his wins to this point, while he still pitched decently (three runs on five hits) in his lone loss of the young campaign. Suarez wasn’t even a bad pitcher in the major leagues, so it’s no surprise that he’s gone to Korea and found some success early on.

Franco hasn’t been quite as good, though he did put in a good effort last time out. Franco held KT to just a run on seven hits with five Ks in his first KBO victory back on April 23. On the season, the right-hander has an ERA north of 5.00, but that number is largely a result of one meltdown start against Samsung. Franco lasted just 0.2 innings after allowing eight runs on six hits against the Lions. In his other three starts combined, Franco has allowed just six runs in 17 innings.

The pitching matchup clearly favors the Twins with how well Suarez has pitched so far, but I think oddsmakers are undervaluing the Giants side here. Franco hasn’t been nearly as bad as his bloated ERA may lead you to believe, so Lotte looks like a pretty attractive option here given the +170 moneyline odds. There’s an awful lot of randomness involved in baseball, and Suarez won’t have a 1.17 ERA forever. Take a shot at some upside by betting the Giants to pull the upset on the road at +170.

NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions

The Dinos have lost each of their first two games to the Lions this week, and NC is in danger of suffering a rare sweep on Thursday. Wednesday’s setback dropped the reigning Korean Series champions to just 10-11 on the young season, which is a far cry from where they were a year ago. NC went 83-55-6 last year on their way to their first-ever championship.

Online betting sites still believe the Dinos will awaken from their early-season slumber eventually. NC is a -128 moneyline favorite on the road on Thursday against Samsung. The game also has an over/under of 10.5, which is the highest on the board. Min-hyeok Shin will toe the rubber for the Dinos in the series finale, while Jung-hyun Baek will take the ball for the Lions.

Baek is 2-2 with a 2.57 ERA so far this season, but the left-hander has been one of the most hittable pitchers in the KBO for most of his career. The 33-year-old has spent his entire career with the Lions. His 4.85 ERA isn’t terrible, but he’s a lefty that doesn’t miss any bats whatsoever. Back in 2019, Baek struck out just 82 hitters in 157 innings of work.

The southpaw finds himself in a difficult matchup against a Dinos offense that should rank among the most prolific in the league by the end of the campaign.

Shin is just 22 and not a proven pitcher at all at this level. He posted a 5.79 ERA as a rookie last season across 17 appearances for the Dinos, including seven starts. he has pitched six times already so far this season, with five of those appearances coming in relief. The right-hander owns a more respectable 4.50 ERA so far this season, but we’re dealing with a very small sample size.

This looks like a really, really obvious spot to bet the over. Baek is no good, while Shin may not be any better. The Lions have been hitting the ball well lately, while we know what kind of a punch the Dinos can pack when they’re at full strength. Hammer the over on 10.5 runs at -136 and don’t think twice.

Doosan Bears vs. Kiwoom Heroes

Kiwoom has broken out of their slump with back-to-back 5-4 wins over Doosan to begin the week, and the Heroes will look for their first sweep of the year on Thursday at home. Kiwoom has improved to 9-13 on the year, which means they have passed Hanwha at the bottom of the league standings. The Bears, meanwhile, have fallen to 10-11 after an appearance in the Korean Series a season ago.

MyBookie likes Doosan to salvage a game here. The Bears are listed as sizable -142 moneyline favorites on the road, while Kiwoom is at +102. Jae-young Jang will get the ball for the Heroes, and the Bears will counter with Won-joon Choi.

Jang hasn’t had much success this season out of the bullpen, and this will be his first start. The right-hander has a 9.53 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP through his first six games, and he hasn’t thrown more than 34 pitches in any outing. This looks like it’ll be a bullpen game for the Heroes tonight with Jang not fully stretched out, which could mean a bounce-back performance for the Bears’ bats.

Choi has been excellent, with a 2-0 record and a 1.21 ERA through four starts to begin the season. The 26-year-old is in his first year as a full-time starter for Doosan after alternating between the rotation and the bullpen last year. Choi hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in any game so far this season, and his career 3.53 ERA at this level is one of the most impressive marks in the league.

Doosan is clearly the better bet given the pitching matchup here, so take a shot on the Bears to win here at -142 on the moneyline.