KBO Picks for Tuesday, April 20

The LG Twins and NC Dinos sit tied atop the KBO standings at 8-5 apiece as the first month of the 2021 season continues. The Twins lost two of their three games against Doosan over the weekend, while the Dinos took two of three from the Hanwha Eagles. The Eagles, Lotte Giants, and Kiwoom Heroes are tied for the fewest wins in the league with just five each heading into a new week’s worth of action.

Monday was the usual scheduled off day around the KBO, and we have five new series getting underway on Tuesday.

Doosan Bears vs Lotte Giants

As mentioned, the Bears picked up a couple of wins at the expense of the Twins over the weekend. Doosan is off to a middling 7-6 start overall, and they’re listed as slight road underdogs (-104) on Tuesday against Lotte (-131).

Lee Young-ha, who is 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA so far this season, will take the mound for the Bears in this one. Lotte will counter with Noh Kyung-eun, who will be making his first appearance of the new campaign.

Noh is hardly a new face in this league. The 37-year-old has been around since 2003, when he made his debut with Doosan. The right-hander went 5-10 with a 4.87 ERA across 25 games for the Giants a season ago, and his career ERA is sitting at a pretty underwhelming 5.12.

Lee lost his season debut against Samsung before bouncing back with a win last time out against the KT Wiz. The 23-year-old has a 4.51 career ERA in the KBO, and he spent most of last season working out of the bullpen.

The Bears may not be quite as good this season as they were in the latter stages of the last decade, but Doosan is still expected to finish ahead of Lotte in the standings this season. Noh doesn’t profile as a particularly imposing pitcher, so I think this is a pretty good opportunity to take a shot on the Bears’ moneyline betting odds (-104). Lee isn’t great by any means, either, but Doosan still has a potent offense.

Kia Tigers vs LG Twins

Kia is 6-7 on the year after losing two of three to SSG Landers over the weekend. The Tigers will hit the road tonight to take on the LG Twins, who have lost two straight entering tonight’s contest.

The Tigers will have American right-hander Aaron Brooks toeing the rubber in the series opener, while the Twins will start righty Jeong Chan-heon. Jeong took a no-decision against the KT Wiz in his first start of the year despite holding the Wiz scoreless in five solid innings of work. He picked up the victory last time out with six more shutout innings against Kiwoom.

Jeong entered the Twins’ rotation as a full-time starter for the first time last year. The 31-year-old was impressive, posting a 3.51 ERA with a 7-4 record in 19 starts. He has been a solid bullpen hand for LG since being taken with the No. 1 overall pick back in 2008, and he has had no issues transitioning into a starting role.

Brooks, who has previously pitched in the majors with the Athletics and Orioles, was excellent last year in his first tour of duty in the KBO. Brooks went 11-4 with a 2.50 ERA in 23 starts for the Tigers, but he’s had a rough go of it to begin 2021. Brooks is 0-2 with a 4.58 ERA through three games this season, though he did hold Lotte scoreless in six innings in a no-decision in his most recent outing.

Brooks and the Tigers are -120 road favorites in this one, while you can get LG at home at -113 on the moneyline. This game has the lowest over/under on the day at 8.5 runs, which makes sense considering we’ve got a pair of quality starting pitchers going toe-to-toe. The under on 8.5 runs looks appealing, especially considering the odds favor the “U” pretty heavily (-138). Expect runs to come at a premium in this game.

SSG Landers vs Samsung Lions

SSG Landers, who used to be known as the SK Wyverns, are off to a 7-6 start in 2021. SSG took two of their three games over the weekend against the Kia Tigers, including a 4-2 triumph in their last game on Saturday. The Landers are sizable -153 moneyline favorites tonight on the road against the Samsung Lions, who won their weekend series over the Giants.

SSG will have Moon Seung-won on the mound on Tuesday, while the Lions are slated to start Lee Seung-min. Moon’s 4.61 ERA isn’t anything to write home about, but he has become one of the more reliable starters in the league over the past couple of years. The right-hander hasn’t posted an ERA above 4.00 since 2018. Last year, he had a 3.65 ERA in 25 starts for the Wyverns.

Moon allowed just one earned run on three hits in his first outing of the year against Hanwha before losing his last start against the NC Dinos.

Lee is just 20 and set to make his third start of the year. He posted a bloated 6.84 ERA as a rookie last season with the Lions in seven games. He was impressive in holding the Bears scoreless across six innings in his season debut back on April 8, but he struggled a bit more in his last start. Lee was touched up for three runs on six hits in 4.2 innings in a loss to Hanwha on April 14.

I’m assuming SSG is so heavily favored here because oddsmakers are reluctant to buy in on the quick improvement from Lee. Moon has a much more trustworthy track record of success at the KBO level, while Lee is a young pitcher still figuring things out.

These are expected to be a couple of the worst teams in the league this season, but I’m still inclined to back the more established starter. The value on SSG to win outright at -153 isn’t great, so I’m more interested in backing Landers to cover the runline at +100.

KT Wiz vs NC Dinos

The KT Wiz come into tonight’s game riding high after a three-game sweep of the Heroes over the weekend. KT is peaking at the right time considering they’re hitting the road to face the reigning champion NC Dinos to begin the week. NC took the first two games of their weekend set with Hanwha in dominant fashion before an 11-3 setback on Saturday.

As usual, the Dinos are huge favorites (-227) in this one. NC will have American Wes Parsons on the mound in the series opener, while the Wiz will counter with Bae Je-seong.

Parsons was outstanding in his KBO debut last week, as he shut out the Landers while allowing just three hits in 5.2 innings of action. Parsons’ numbers in the United States were supremely underwhelming, but he projects to be one of the better pitchers here given the lesser competition overseas.

Bae, 24, is off to a rough 0-2 start. The right-hander has a 7.71 ERA on the year following back-to-back losses to LG and Doosan, and he has really struggled with his control. Bae has walked eight while striking out just six through two games. However, he does own a much more respectable 4.41 ERA all-time, and he pitched to a solid 3.95 ERA in 26 starts a season ago.

This is one of three games on the schedule with an over/under of 10.5 runs, which seems a little high. Parsons is no proven commodity, but he sure looked like the real deal in his first outing. Bae isn’t a bad pitcher, either, so it looks as though both offenses are a little overvalued here. I like the value in the -105 odds on the under bet in Wiz-Dinos.

Kiwoom Heroes vs Hanwha Eagles

Kiwoom has had a difficult start to the year, as they’re just 5-9 on the year after getting swept by the KT Wiz over the weekend. Hanwha isn’t much better at 5-8, and the Eagles finished with the worst record in the entire league last season (46-95-3). The Heroes weren’t expected to be terrible coming into the season, so perhaps their ragged start is merely a blip on the radar.

Kiwoom is a -131 moneyline favorite on the road tonight with Kim Jeong-in set to draw the start. The Eagles will put right-hander Nick Kingham on the mound.

Kim is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA on the year. He pitched well in his first start of the year against Kia before getting touched up for five runs on seven hits last time out against LG. Kim has only pitched 22 career games in the KBO, but his 7.20 lifetime ERA leaves plenty to be desired.

Kingham, a former Pittsburgh Pirate, managed to keep Samsung scoreless in six innings of work in his most recent start. That was just Kingham’s fourth career KBO outing after he battled injuries last season. He didn’t have a ton of success in the majors, but there is still some reason for optimism moving forward.

The Eagles are likely home underdogs tonight because of their middling offense, but the Heroes haven’t exactly been tearing the cover off the ball to begin the new campaign. The Eagles have actually out-homered the Heroes 8-5 early in the year. Kiwoom may snap out of their funk eventually, but this is a solid chance to take the Eagles against a struggling team at home. Back Hanwha at -105 on the moneyline.