Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers NBA Pick for Tuesday, December 22

The second leg of TNT’s NBA opening night double-header brings us a familiar matchup between the Clippers and the Lakers. These two teams were essentially co-favorites to win the title for most of last season before the Clips flamed out in their second-round playoff series against the Denver Nuggets. Sadly, we never got to see these two teams square off in the postseason as the Lakers essentially wound up cruising to a title in the Disney World bubble.

Both teams look a bit different heading into tonight’s highly-anticipated clash. The Clippers parted ways with Doc Rivers after last season, while Montrezl Harrell, JaMychal Green, and Landry Shamet were among the players to have left. The Lakers, meanwhile, have reloaded the roster following their championship run. The Lakers nabbed Harrell from across the hall while fortifying their depth with additions like Dennis Schroder, Wesley Matthews, and Marc Gasol.

The Lakers are heavier championship favorites than they were at this time a year ago. Most betting sites have the Lakers around +250 to win the title, while the Clips are down in the +600 range alongside teams like the Bucks and Nets. LAL is also a 3-point favorite in tonight’s season opener over the Clippers, per the latest odds at BetOnline.

Last Chance for Kawhi in LA?

It’s only been a year since he arrived, but Kawhi Leonard is already entering what could be the final season of his contract. Leonard has the ability to opt-out and become a free agent next summer, which means the clock may be ticking on the Clippers’ chances to capitalize while he’s still in the fold. If the team falls short of expectations again this season, it’s entirely possible that Kawhi will decide to skip town come July of next year.

Of course, Leonard played no small role in the Clippers’ collapse against Denver. LAC blew a 3-1 series lead against the Nuggets thanks in part to Kawhi’s offensive struggles. The former Finals MVP averaged about 24 points per game while shooting around 45 percent from the field in that series, including a miserable 6-for-22 showing for 14 points in the pivotal Game 7 defeat. Paul George drew most of the ire due to his own shortcomings, but Leonard was culpable, too.

NONCOMMITAL: Kawhi Leonard says he’d probably decline the player option with the LA Clippers, but that doesn’t mean he’s going anywhere. https://t.co/P9OYkqH4Ls pic.twitter.com/n5RuH43Nbu

— CBS Los Angeles (@CBSLA) December 21, 2020

The Clips are hoping that this retooled roster will be more cohesive than last year’s was. Serge Ibaka should come in and prove to be a useful cog in the middle from day one. Ibaka brings an element of shot-blocking and floor-spacing that last year’s iteration of the Clippers simply lacked. While Harrell is a fine scorer, Ibaka’s more well-rounded game just complements the rest of the roster better. He doesn’t need to have the ball in his hands in order to leave his mark on the game.

Luke Kennard is another new face that should get plenty of ball-handling duty with the second unit. Lou Williams will surely run the show off the bench, but Kennard is a younger option capable of filling a variety of offensive needs.

The addition of Ibaka means Ivica Zubac can move to the bench, where he’ll presumably see more usage than he would’ve with the starters.

The Clippers didn’t play particularly well during an 0-3 preseason, but their starters didn’t log many minutes in the tune-up games. The Clippers and Lakers split their four regular-season meetings a season ago, with the Clippers picking up the win on opening night. The Clips were also 47-38-0 against the spread last season, while the Lakers were 47-43-2. Those were two of the better marks in the league.

Lakers Looking to Repeat

Assuming LeBron James doesn’t endure some sort of rapid age-related decline, there is little reason to believe the Lakers won’t be in the hunt for another Finals berth this season. The soon-to-be 36-year-old is still at the top of his game, and he has shown absolutely zero signs of slowing down. As a result, the Lakers are justifiable favorites entering the new campaign.

Many have Anthony Davis pegged as a likely MVP frontrunner, and with good reason. Davis averaged 26.1 points and 9.3 rebounds per game in his first year in LA, while also ranking near the top of the league in blocked shots (2.3). Davis is a two-way monster that will challenge for another Defensive Player of the Year Award, as well. It’s worth wondering whether AD will shoulder an even bigger offensive load now that he has had over a year to acclimate to his new team.

Anthony Davis’ chemistry with Marc Gasol and Dennis Schroder came naturally 👌 pic.twitter.com/mF5X3Fni75

— LakeShow (@LakeShowCP) December 17, 2020

Adding Marc Gasol to the starting unit should be helpful, too. The Lakers cycled JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard in-and-out of the center rotation last season, but the presence of Gasol should give the Lakers’ two superstars more room to operate. Gasol has shown the ability to knock down shots from the perimeter while also still having the ability to make plays as one of the game’s best passing big men. Gasol isn’t getting any younger, but the fit in LA is phenomenal.

The Lakers managed to win it all despite not being a great perimeter shooting team last season. LAL led the league in field goal percentage, but they ranked just 21st in three-point percentage. Gasol should help their shooting, while Wesley Matthews is another upgrade in that regard. Dennis Schroder has shown the ability to knock down his open looks, and he should take the spot of Danny Green in the team’s new-look starting unit. The Lakers should be a bit more accurate from beyond the long line this season.

What’s the Best Bet?

This game also has an over/under of 219.5 points, which is significantly lower than the total we’re seeing in Warriors/Nets (231.5). The Lakers were one of the best “over” bets in the NBA last season, while the Clippers ranked bottom-10 in the same category. Both teams are expected to be fairly stingy defensively once again, and the addition of so many new players for both teams could mean we see some early-season offensive struggles.

The Clippers should be hungry and looking to make a statement in this one, especially considering the Lakers will be getting their championship rings before tipoff.

While we do often see reigning champions get off to sluggish starts on ring night, I’d be surprised if the Lakers got too caught up in the moment. I’m expecting both teams to be ready for this one, but I slightly prefer the Lakers against the spread.

The Lakers are the team with fewer question marks heading into the new season. While I don’t think home-court advantage will be in play without fans at Staples Center tonight, Lakers -3 is still an attackable enough spread. Bet the Lakers to cover on opening night.