March Madness Sweet 16 Pick: Syracuse vs Houston

It wouldn’t be an NCAA Tournament without Syracuse. Jim Boeheim’s team always seems to make noise in March, and 2021 is no exception. Despite being the No. 11 seed in the Midwest Region, Syracuse has advanced to yet another Sweet Sixteen after back-to-back upset wins over San Diego State and West Virginia.

Syracuse vs Houston: Moneyline Betting Odds

Team
Houston	-265
Syracuse	+225

Syracuse vs Houston: Spread Betting Odds

Team
Houston	-6.5 -110
Syracuse	+6.5 -110

Syracuse vs Houston: Over/Under Betting Odds

Team
Houston	O 140.5 -110
Syracuse	U 140.5 -110

The Houston Cougars haven’t been regular players in the tournament since the days of Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler, but they entered the Big Dance as the No. 2 seed in this region after a 26-3 season. The Coogs crushed Cleveland State in the first round before sweating out a close one over Rutgers in the round of 32. Oddsmakers at March Madness betting sites are expecting Syracuse’s Cinderella run to come to an end here, as the Coogs are 6.5-point favorites in a game with a 140.5 over/under.

Can Houston Solve the Syracuse Zone?

Syracuse makes for a hellish opponent every March thanks to Boeheim’s insistence on playing a 2-3 zone defense. For whatever reason, the zone seems to throw teams out of whack. Most teams play man-to-man these days, so perhaps they just aren’t well-versed when it comes to how to attack the zone.

It’s interesting that the Orange ranked a dismal 142nd in defensive rating during the regular season. Syracuse went just 18-9 in ACC play, which was good for eighth in the conference. For whatever reason, this team always seems to save its best for March.

Buddy Boeheim said he’s a “bucket” after making a 3 😳 pic.twitter.com/XFZEsMQvuv

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) March 21, 2021

While the defense has been excellent through the first two rounds, Buddy Boeheim has been the real story. The coach’s son has been unstoppable, averaging 27.5 points through two games against San Diego State and West Virginia. Boeheim put 30 points on the board against the Aztecs, and he followed it up with a 25-point showing against the Mountaineers. Over his last four games, he’s shooting an incredible 55.8 percent from three-point country.

Grimes Leads the Coogs

Quentin Grimes was hardly a household name when he arrived in Houston after transferring from Kansas, but he has quickly become Houston’s best player. Many thought the Cougars’ hopes were dashed when Caleb Mills transferred away, but Grimes has picked up the slack. The Woodlands native is averaging 18.1 points and 6.0 rebounds per game on the year.

Grimes scored 18 points in their opening-round win over Cleveland State before scoring 22 while playing all 40 minutes last time out against Rutgers.

.@UHCougarMBK guard Quentin Grimes (@qdotgrimes) on this historic opportunity: “We have a chance to make history..for the city really. You have a chance to do something special that hasn’t been done in a long time..We have a great opportunity to show the world how good we are.” pic.twitter.com/xMCcAAy9Q9

— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) March 25, 2021

While we make a lot of the Syracuse defense, Houston was one of the stingiest teams in the country this season. Houston allowed a paltry 86 points per 100 possessions, which was the third-best mark in the nation behind only Memphis and Abilene Christian. The Coogs held Cleveland State to 56 points in the opener, while Rutgers mustered just 60 points in the second round.

This game has the makings of a potential slugfest. Houston has allowed just one opponent to crack 80 points in a game all season, which is a remarkable feat. The Cougars have allowed only 57.9 points per game on the year.

What’s the Best Bet?

Both teams carry some offensive firepower, but I would expect the defenses to reign supreme here. We could also have some jitters for both teams given what’s at stake here. With points coming at a premium and both teams more than capable of stifling their opponents, this could be one of the lowest-scoring games of the entire tournament.

Houston is 14-14 over/under so far this season, while Syracuse is 14-13. Interestingly enough, the “over” has hit in three of the last four games for each of these teams. That said, I do think their similar styles of play will lead to a grind of a game on Saturday. The under on 140.5 points looks like a safe way to attack this game. Betting Syracuse to cover the spread bet is a fine alternative, as well.