Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards NBA Pick – March 15, 2021

On Saturday night, the Milwaukee Bucks and Washington Wizards battled in Washington in an entertaining, high-scoring affair. Although the Bucks eventually prevailed 125-119, the underdog Wizards actually held a sizable lead throughout the contest. Tonight, they’re back at it in Washington in the second game of a two-game series with the Bucks looking to get out the brooms.

The Bucks have been playing some of their best basketball of late, winning eight out of ten games to push within a hair of Philadelphia and Brooklyn in the East. In fact, with Joel Embiid out for a few weeks, Milwaukee could possibly see a window where they could close the gap on the top seed or even pass them. It’s hard to say how much home court advantage will matter in this odd season, but it certainly couldn’t hurt in what seems to be a massive three-way battle in the East.

As for Washington, they pulled themselves out of a big early-hole with excellent play in January, although they’ve levelled off to more of a .500 level of late. They’re now four games out of the eighth spot in the East. And their big bugaboo has been in-conference tilts, as they are just 5-16 against Eastern teams, worst in the league.

Moneyline Betting Odds

Team
Washington Wizards	+280
Milwaukee Bucks	-350

Spread Betting Odds

Team
Washington Wizards	+8.5 -111
Milwaukee Bucks	-8.5 -109

Over/Under Betting Odds

Team
Washington Wizards	O 242.5 -110
Milwaukee Bucks	U 242.5 -110

Injury Report

The big news here will be the status of Bradley Beal. Beal, the NBA’s scoring leader, sat out Saturday night’s matchup between the two squads with knee soreness. Keep your eyes peeled for his status leading up to game time, as that could obviously have a huge effect on your wager. but right now things are looking up:

The Wizards’ latest injury report for tomorrow’s game:

Davis Bertans (calf)- Questionable

Raul Neto (rib)- Questionable

Ish Smith (quad)- Out

Bradley Beal was not listed.

— Bucks Lead (@BucksLead) March 14, 2021

If Beal suits up, the Wizards obviously get a big boost. They’ll need the firepower, especially if Davis Bertans sits out. He is the main offensive weapon on the Wizards’ second unit, and they’ll miss his three-point marksmanship, which can pull the Bucks’ big guys away from the hoop.

As for the Bucks, they are as healthy as they’ve been all season. After a few games getting his legs back before the All-Star break, Jrue Holiday took his starting role back on Saturday night’s game and put up 18 points and 8 rebounds. Coach Mike Budenholzer will now be able to play with his rotations and see what this team looks like firing on all cylinders, which could be scary for the rest of the East.

Let This Russ Cook

As I said above, the Wizards were surprisingly feisty on Saturday night, as the game was tied in the final minute. Thank Russell Westbrook for that. Without Beal, he carried the load with a massive effort: 42 points, 10 rebounds and 12 assists, along with a bevy of highlights.

Ideally, with Beal in the game, the Wizards won’t need Russ to do so much. Also, it puts the Wizards in a better position late in the game. In a clutch situation, you’d be much more willing to foul Westbrook than Beal:

• Bradley Beal: 90% Free Throw Percentage
• Russell Westbrook: 57.2% Free Throw Percentage

Bucks Beef

Looking at the stats of that game on Saturday night, most of the key numbers between the two team were very tight. Both teams shot at close to the same percentage from the field and from three, and the turnovers were similar. But the difference came down low:

• Bucks: 13 offensive rebounds, 50 points in paint
• Wizards: 6 offensive rebounds, 36 points in paint

When you think of the Bucks down low, your first thought is likely of Giannis Antetokounmpo pounding people on drives to the rims and dunks. And Giannis did indeed have a typically massive game against Washington on Saturday night, with a triple double of 33, 11 and 11. (The fact that he hit 7 of 8 free throws, well above his normal percentage, didn’t hurt.)

But the Wizards were really hurt by other sources of rebounding might. Donte DiVincenzo, who is nominally the Bucks point guard, was particularly damaging, as he had team highs on the boards with 13 total and 4 offensive rebounds. That just can’t happen again in the Wizards expect to pull off the upset.

Washington Coach Scott Brooks has tried just about everything at the center position since Thomas Bryant was lost for the season. On Saturday, he gave Alex Len the start and 33 minutes of playing time while completely benching Moritz Wagner, who had been starting. Yet Len could only manage 6 rebounds for the game, and that needs to improve or else the Bucks will be living in the paint once again.

The Back To Back Factor

The NBA schedule attempted to limit travel situations by instituting two-game sets where two teams play each other on the same court. That’s a little different than the home-and-home setup that we’ve seen in the past. But the results have been somewhat inconclusive so far as to whether the advantage goes to either side, i.e. the first game’s winner or the first game’s loser, in the second half of the mini-series.

In this case, you have a Bucks team that was probably smarting somewhat from being pushed to the hilt by a Washington team that, for all intents and purposes, they should have squashed, especially without Beal. That could mean that they come out determined to put things right early in this game. Washington might be hard-pressed to stem that tide.

What’s The Best Bet?

Saturday night’s struggles notwithstanding, the Bucks are playing at an extremely high level and look like they should be a handful night in and night out. One thing that did occur on Saturday that was a positive for them was that they executed well down the stretch of a tight game. That’s something that needs to happen for them with regularity, especially since they’ve struggled at times with that aspect of their games in the past few postseasons, when they bowed out far before it was expected.

I think Beal’s presence might not mean as much in this game as the fact that Milwaukee will come in a little bit angry. Milwaukee might have been surprised by the Washington pace on Saturday night, but that won’t happen again. Look for the Bucks to cruise and cover as home dogs.