MLB Player Props for April 27: Can Max Scherzer Stop the Blue Jays?

We went four-for-five with our MLB player props on Monday, so let’s try to keep the good times rolling with another batch on Tuesday! We’ve got 15 games on the schedule today, which means no shortage of betting options if you’re looking to take advantage of the various player props offered at MLB betting sites around the industry.

The following are the five best player props to target on Tuesday’s MLB slate.

Max Scherzer Total Strikeouts

• Over 8.5 (+108)
• Under 8.5 (-137)

There aren’t many better pitchers in the league than Max Scherzer. Even at this advanced stage of his career, the 36-year-old can still rack up strikeouts with the best of ’em. Through his first four outings of 2021, Mad Max is the proud owner of a 35.9 percent strikeout rate and an average of 11.88 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.

Scherzer has one of the highest K-rates in the league early in the year, which is hardly a surprise considering he has posted K-rates of at least 30 percent in every season since 2015. Tonight, Scherzer takes his show on the road to Dunedin, where he’ll face the Blue Jays in their temporary home.

Dunedin is one of the smaller parks in the league, which makes it one of the more hitter-friendly venues in baseball. So far this season, TD Ballpark in Dunedin ranks as the seventh-best hitter’s park in the majors overall, and it’s fifth-best for home runs. Scherzer is a fly ball pitcher by trade that has always allowed his fair share of power. The fact that most of the homers he allows tend to come with the bases empty means he usually limits damage, but Scherzer has already been taken deep four times in four starts thus far.

Blue Jays adding Teoscar Hernandez & George Springer to the roster is basically a blockbuster trade in April without losing anybody.

— Blue Jays Dad (@BlueJaysDad) April 24, 2021

The Blue Jays are also getting healthier tonight with George Springer set to make his season debut after beginning the campaign on the injured list. Toronto’s projected lineup for tonight’s game has a collective 20.5 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching dating back to the beginning of last season. Cavan Biggio, Randal Grichuk, and Rowdy Tellez are the only hitters with below-average K-rates against righties. Scherzer will also be moving from the National League to the American League tonight, which means he’ll face a designated hitter instead of getting his usual free Ks against opposing pitchers.

Corey Kluber Total Strikeouts

• Over 5.5 (+128)
• Under 5.5 (-165)

It wasn’t too long ago that Corey Kluber could be mentioned in the same breath as Max Scherzer. Kluber won a pair of AL Cy Young Awards during his time with Cleveland, but injuries and age have caught up with him. Through four starts this season with the Yankees, Kluber has a strikeout rate of just 19.2 percent, which is the lowest mark of his entire career. His walk rate is also north of 15 percent, which happens to be the highest he’s ever posted.

It’s admittedly early in the season, but it seems safe to conclude that this is no longer the ace-caliber pitcher he was just a few years ago. Kluber posted a 26.4 percent K-rate in his last fully healthy season in 2018, which was only a little above league average. In his four games so far in 2021, he has posted strikeout totals of five, three, four, and two.

The Orioles lineup on the other side of this matchup won’t keep opposing pitchers up at night, but it’s still not a great matchup for Ks. Baltimore’s projected lineup has a 23 percent strikeout rate against righties since the beginning of 2020. Kluber will also be taking the mound at Oriole Park, which has consistently been a hitter’s paradise since it opened in the early-90s. As is the case with Scherzer, Kluber won’t have the benefit of facing a pitcher in the lineup, either.

Kluber’s K prop of 5.5 is just too high for him at this point in his career. This seems to have more to do with his track record than his current skill level, and the Orioles aren’t a total cakewalk of a matchup in the first place. I’d be hammering the under on 5.5 here, even at the -165 odds.

David Peterson Total Strikeouts

• Over 4.5 (-113)
• Under 4.5 (-113)

David Peterson is hardly a household name compared to most of his teammates in the Mets’ talented starting rotation, but he is a promising young left-hander. Just two starts ago, Peterson racked up 10 strikeouts in the best performance of his career in a victory over the Phillies. Tonight, Peterson will take the mound at home against the Red Sox.

Since debuting in the majors last year, Peterson has a K-rate of just over 22 percent. So far this season, he’s up at 31 percent. I doubt he’ll maintain a K-rate above 30 percent moving forward, but there is still reason for optimism after he put up decent K numbers at the lower levels. Peterson is a lefty that has shown occasional control issues, but his 2.98 SIERA is a lot more impressive than his bloated 6.75 ERA so far this season.

Through 17 Games, Mets starters have now had 10 occurrences of 6+ IP, 5 Hits or fewer, 2 ER or fewer, & 3 BB or fewer.

Jacob deGrom (4)

Marcus Stroman (3)

Taijuan Walker (2)

David Peterson (1)

This is tied for most such starts in the 1st 17 games of a season since 1901. pic.twitter.com/dLVdABqOdr

— Greg Harvey (@BetweenTheNums) April 25, 2021

The Red Sox may seem like a daunting matchup on paper, but Peterson has a few things going for him tonight. Boston will take a huge park downgrade going from hitter-friendly Fenway Park to Citi Field, which has always been one of the best environments in the league for pitching. Boston will also lose the DH in this one, which means Peterson will likely get one or two chances to strike out Red Sox pitcher Garrett Richards.

Peterson is just more talented than a pitcher that should have an over/under of 4.5 strikeouts tonight. Boston has a sub-4.00 implied run total here, so it’s a little curious that oddsmakers aren’t more bullish on Peterson’s chances of racking up a few extra Ks. With the same -113 odds on either side of this one, I think the over is a stellar bet tonight.

Gary Sanchez Total Runs Batted In

• Over 0.5 (+105)
• Under 0.5 (-136)

The Yankees faltered last night in a prime matchup against Matt Harvey, but you can pretty easily argue that the Bronx Bombers find themselves in an even more favorable spot tonight. The Yankees will still be taking their hacks at Camden Yards, but this time they’ll be facing a mediocre left-handed pitcher in Bruce Zimmermann.

New York has been pretty underwhelming with the bats so far this season, but it’s hard to imagine this lineup struggling against a rookie lefty. Zimmermann has a low K-rate of just 16.7 percent so far this season, and he has whiffed just under 14 percent of right-handed hitters since debuting in the big leagues last season.

The Yankee lineup boasts all sorts of right-handed power. Strikeouts are typically the kryptonite for Gary Sanchez, but we know he’s capable of inflicting major damage if he’s able to get the bat to the baseball. Against a lefty in Zimmermann that doesn’t miss bats, Sanchez is in a prime spot this evening. Since the beginning of last season, Gary has a .243 ISO against left-handed pitching. His strikeout rate is over 34 percent, but Zimmermann doesn’t really have the stuff to blow him away.

The Yanks have the highest implied run total of any team in action tonight at 5.72. You can easily argue that number should be higher, and perhaps it would be if New York hadn’t gotten off to such a sluggish start to the season. They should be able to awaken from that slumber tonight, and I’d be surprised if Sanchez doesn’t get involved in the onslaught. You can get pretty appealing +105 value on Gary picking up at least one RBI in this one, which looks like a pretty wise wager given the Yanks’ hefty team total.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Runs Scored

• Over 0.5 (-120)
• Under 0.5 (-110)

The Padres impressively took three of four games over the rival Dodgers in Los Angeles over the weekend, and San Diego will look to keep the momentum going tonight. The Pads will continue their road trip in Arizona, where they’ll begin a midweek series against the Diamondbacks tonight.

Fernando Tatis Jr. missed a few weeks with a shoulder injury earlier in the year, but he sure does seem to be back to full strength. Tatis thwacked five homers in the four-game weekend series against LA as he personally ravaged arguably the best pitching rotation in all of baseball. His season-long numbers are underwhelming relative to expectations (.246/.338/.632), but he seems to be fully out of his early-season slump.

.@tatis_jr put up some major numbers this series. pic.twitter.com/nVhuXQ0uwd

— MLB (@MLB) April 26, 2021

Tatis is expected to occupy the leadoff spot in the Padres’ lineup tonight against Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks. Kelly hasn’t been bad since joining the Arizona rotation a couple of years ago, but his struggles to begin 2021 have been pronounced. Kelly has allowed a barrel rate of 10.5 percent early this season, which is one of the highest marks in the league. The right-hander has already allowed four homers in four starts with a sizable 7.71 ERA, as well.

Tatis and Kelly have faced one another 15 times as NL West bunkmates. Across those 15 plate appearances, Tatis has five hits, three home runs, five RBIs, and a walk.

He has owned Kelly in their head-to-head matchups, which is hardly a surprise given Kelly’s mediocre numbers over the past few seasons. San Diego is another team projected to score quite a few runs tonight (4.92), and I’d be willing to bet the over on that total. Tatis should have no shortage of opportunities to do damage out of the leadoff spot, which makes him as likely as anybody else in the lineup to cross the plate at least once.

Bet the over on 0.5 runs scored for Tatis in this one at -120.