NASCAR Pennzoil 400 Betting Preview, Odds, and Predictions

On Sunday, March 7^th, NASCAR heads to Las Vegas for the Pennzoil 400. This is the 4^th race of the season and if the first three races are any indication, this weekend’s event will be an exciting one as well.

William Byron stunned the field in Miami last weekend with a big win. He marks the third consecutive race with a surprise winner. Can we keep that trend going in Las Vegas this Sunday?

According to online sports betting sites, Kevin Harvick is the odds on favorite to win the Pennzoil 400. He’s followed closely by Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski.

Let’s put our safety gear on, strap in tightly, rev those engines and make some checkered flag winning predictions.

Race Profile

The Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a traditional tri-oval track with a lap distance of 1.5 miles. There are four turns with banking from 12 to 20 degrees. Sunday’s race breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 400.5 miles
• Total Laps: 267 laps
• Stage 1: First 80 laps
• Stage 2: Second 80 laps
• Final Stage: Remaining 107 laps

The Pennzoil 400 is set to begin at 3:30 PM ET and will air live on FOX.

What to Watch for at Las Vegas

With all of the excitement heading into the first weekend of March, the following storylines are worth keeping an eye on at Las Vegas this weekend:

• Can Team Penske win a 3^rd straight Vegas race?
• Will Joey Logano win his 3^rd in a row at Vegas?
• Can Ford win its 4^th straight Las Vegas race?
• Can Chevy win for the first time since 2015?
• Will we get another surprise winner?

Previous Pennzoil 400 Winners

The first NASCAR Cup Series race in Las Vegas was held in 1998 and won by Mark Martin. Jimmie Johnson would go on to win this race four times, which is the all-time mark. Joey Logano has won the last two races at Las Vegas.

The following is a list of winners dating back to 1998:

• Mark Martin in 1998
• Jeff Burton in 1999-2000
• Jeff Gordon in 2001
• Sterling Marlin in 2002
• Matt Kenseth in 2003-2004, 2013
• Jimmie Johnson in 2005-2007, 2010
• Carl Edwards in 2008, 2011
• Kyle Busch in 2009
• Tony Stewart in 2012
• Brad Keselowski in 2014, 2016
• Kevin Harvick in 2015, 2018
• Martin Truex Jr. in 2017
• Joey Logano in 2019, 2020

NASCAR Pennzoil 400 Betting Odds

The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

• Kevin Harvick (+500)
• Martin Truex Jr (+650)
• Chase Elliott (+775)
• Denny Hamlin (+775)
• Brad Keselowski (+900)
• Joey Logano (+900)
• Kyle Larson (+1000)
• Kyle Busch (+1200)
• Ryan Blaney (+1200)
• Kurt Busch (+1600)
• Alex Bowman (+1800)
• William Byron (+1800)
• Austin Dillon (+2500)
• Christopher Bell(+2800)
• Aric Almirola (+4000)
• Matt DiBenedetto (+5000)
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr (+5000)
• Tyler Reddick (+5000)
• Cole Custer (+6600)
• Darrell Wallace Jr (+6600)
• Chase Briscoe (+8000)
• Chris Buescher (+8000)
• Ryan Newman (+8000)
• Daniel Suarez (+10000)
• Ross Chastain (+10000)
• Michael McDowell (+12500)

Pennzoil 400 Betting Favorites from Vegas

According to most betting sites offering odds on NASCAR, the following drivers are considered the odds on favorites to win the Pennzoil 400 from Las Vegas on Sunday, March 7^th:

Kevin Harvick (+500)

• Top 3 (+175)
• Top 10 (-265)

Harvick has moved up one spot in the standings to 2^nd overall after finishing 5^th at Homestead-Miami last weekend. He’s one of only two drivers to have finished in the Top 10 for all three races this season. Harvick was 4^th in the Daytona 500 and 6^th at the Daytona road course.

He has yet to win a stage and has only led 17 laps this year, which is surprising considering how well he’s finished each week.

At Vegas, Harvick leads all drivers with Top 5s (7), Top 10s (12), laps (5,809), and laps led (679). His 13.7 average finish is 8^th best among drivers.

Harvick has seven Top 10s in the last nine races at this track including two wins and four Top 5s. He finished 8^th and 10^th at this track in 2020. The #4 car will start on the pole this weekend.

I expect Harvick to be a Top 10 and Top 5 car this weekend. He could also be a Top 3 car, but will have to battle Team Penske and Joe Gibbs Racing for a shot at the checkered flag.

Martin Truex Jr (+650)

• Top 3 (+190)
• Top 10 (-265)

Truex’s 3^rd place finish at Homestead-Miami last weekend improved his spot in the standings from 14^th to 9^th overall. It was his first Top 5 and Top 10 finish for the year.

At Vegas, Truex has had a solid run over the last decade. During that span, he has one win, six Top 5s, and nine Top 10s. He was 20^th and 4^th at this track last year, but won at Vegas three races ago. His 11.0 average finish is 4^th best among active drivers.

Truex will be a Top 10 car, but he needs to show some consistency on the track to feel confident about the #19 being a car we can count on as a contender for the checkered flag.

Chase Elliott (+775)

• Top 3 (+235)
• Top 10 (-225)

The defending Cup Series champ is currently 5^th in the standings after a ho-hum 14^th place result last weekend. He’s had to middle of the pack finishes over the last two races and has had some bad luck along the way.

Elliott is hoping his luck will change in Vegas this weekend, but I’m not sure it will. In eight starts at this track, Elliott has just two Top 5s and three Top 10s. He has a pathetic 21.5 average finish at Las Vegas which includes three DNFs.

Of the betting favorites, I would avoid Elliott the most. His ceiling this weekend is a Top 10 finish.

Denny Hamlin (+775)

• Top 3 (+235)
• Top 10 (-225)

Hamlin has started off the season on a strong note. Although he was 11^th at Homestead last weekend, he still sits on top of the driver standings.

He also has won three stages, which is half of the stages this season so far. Hamlin’s 103 laps led is the most of the field heading into this weekend.

Unfortunately, Hamlin has never won at Vegas in his career. He was 3^rd in the fall race here last year, but only has three Top 10s in the last eight races at this track.

Hamlin does have a respectable average finish at 13.4, but he’s only been a realistic threat to win one race at this track and that was last September at the South Point 400.

I see the #11 car finishing in the Top 10 this weekend and flirting with a Top 5, but I don’t see Hamlin contending for the checkered flag.

Brad Keselowski (+900)

• Top 3 (+235)
• Top 10 (-225)

Of the betting favorites, Keselowski has the most wins at Vegas with three. He, along with his Team Penske teammate Joey Logano, are the drivers to beat this weekend.

Keselowski has the 5^th best average finish at 11.5, but has been a star at this track over the last eight years. During that 11 race span, he has three wins, seven Top 5s, 10 Top 10s, and has never finished worse than 13^th overall.

Keselowski finished 7^th and 13^th last year, which was a 10.0 average finish. Prior to that, he had three straight finishes in the Top 3.

For the season, Keselowski is 10^th in the standings with only one Top 5 and one Top 10. He was 16^th at Homestead-Miami last weekend even after leading 47 laps.

I see the #2 car as a Top 10 and Top 5 driver this weekend. He should be in contention for the checkered flag when it’s all said and done.

The Best Pennzoil 400 Betting Value

The following NASCAR drivers offer betting value for the Pennzoil 400 due to their current betting odds, their past success at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and their 2021 season so far:

Joey Logano (+900)

• Top 3 (+235)
• Top 10 (-225)

Logano dropped a spot in the standings from 3^rd to 2^nd overall after finishing 25^th at Homestead-Miami last weekend. It was a big drop from his 2^nd place result on the Daytona road course two weeks ago.

Yet, he has led laps in every race so far and he heads to a track where the #22 car has dominated at in recent years.

Logano has won this race for the last two years and has been in the Top 10 for this race since 2014. His worse result in the last nine years at this track was 14^th last fall. He’s led laps in every Vegas race since 2014.

His 8.4 average finish is the best among drivers and he will definitely be one of the cars to beat on Sunday. I expect Logano to be a Top 10, Top 5 and Top 3 car in the Pennzoil 400.

Kyle Larson (+1000)

• Top 3 (+290)
• Top 10 (-180)

Larson jumped up four spots in the standings after finishing 4^th last weekend. He crashed in the final laps of the Daytona road race, which is the reason why he doesn’t have three Top 10s on the year.

At Vegas, Larson has six Top 10s in his nine starts and his 10.8 average finish is the 3^rd best among drivers. He was 9^th in this race last year before being suspended.

Larson hasn’t missed a beat since returning to NASCAR this year and driving for Hendrick. He has value with his Top 10 odds and could be a Top 5 car as well.

Kyle Busch (+1200)

• Top 3 (+375)
• Top 10 (-150)

Busch sits 18^th in the driver standings and fell one spot despite finishing 10^th last weekend. Unfortunately, his 24.5 average finish over the first two weeks has put Busch in a big hole early in the season.

Now, he heads to his home track this Sunday where he hasn’t won at since 2009.

In the last six races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Busch has two Top 5s and four Top 10s. He was 15^th and 6^th at this track last year.

I see a Top 10 finish for Busch in the Pennzoil 400 and I believe his Top 10 odds provide value.

The Top Longshot to Win the Pennzoil 400

Michael McDowell (+12500)

• Top 3 (+3000)
• Top 10 (+375)

I can’t imagine there’s been a worse track for McDowell than Vegas. In 14 starts, he has seven DNFs and has never finished higher than 18^th. He didn’t even finish in seven of his first 10 starts at this track.

Although McDowell was able to finish the last four races, his best result was 21^st in the fall race last year. So, you can see why he’s such a longshot.

With that said, McDowell is the only other driver along with Harvick to have finished in the Top 10 each race this season. He won the Daytona 500, was 8^th in the Daytona road race, and finished 6^th last weekend.

I like his Top 10 odds and think that the #34 car can keep his streak going by sneaking into the Top 10 this weekend.

The Rest of the Field at Pennzoil 400

The following drivers are worth keeping an eye on in this weekend’s Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas:

• Ryan Blaney (+1200) – Blaney has the second best average finish at this track at 9.7. In nine starts, he has three Top 5s and six Top 10s. He was 11^th and 7^th at Vegas last year and will benefit from having two of the favorites as his teammates.
• Kurt Busch (+1600) – Busch won the fall race here last year and was 5^th in this race in 2019. He’s also 6^th in the driver standings with two Top 10s this season.
• Austin Dillon (+2500) – Dillon has the 10^th best average finish at 16.3, but finished 4^th in this race last year. He has one Top 5 and one Top 10 this year so far.
• Christopher Bell (+2800) – This is just his 3^rd start after finishing 33^rd and 24^th last year in Vegas. He does have one win this year, but appears to be a Top 20 car at best this Sunday.
• Matt DiBenedetto (+5000) – Matt is not having a good year so far, but he was runner up in both Vegas races last year and could be a surprise Top 10 driver this weekend as well.

The Best Top 5 Bet for Pennzoil 400

Keselowski is my choice for the best driver to finish in the Top 5. In 15 starts, he has seven Top 5s. In fact, he’s done that in the last 11 races at Vegas. Keselowski has three wins at this track and is one of my race favorites this weekend.

The Best Top 10 Bet for Pennzoil 400

I like Kyle Larson to finish in the Top 10 this weekend at the Pennzoil 400. In nine career starts, he has three Top 5s and six Top 10s. Larson also has two Top 10s on the season. He’s racing well for a driver that missed most of 2020.

My Top 5 drivers this weekend are Keselowski, Logano, Truex, Harvick and Larson. Of these drivers, only Larson hasn’t won at this track. I don’t see him getting that first Vegas win this weekend.

I also don’t see Harvick winning either. He’s been consistently good on the year and at Vegas, but hasn’t won since 2018. In that span, Logano has won twice while both Keselowski and Truex have won once.

I don’t see Logano winning this weekend despite racing really well. I just don’t believe he’s going to win this race three years in a row.

I think the checkered flag will come down to Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski. I’m taking Truex to win this race as he showed last weekend at Homestead that he’s still one of the best drivers at the 1.5 mile tracks.

My Top 5 Drivers

• Kevin Harvick
• Kyle Larson
• Martin Truex Jr.
• Brad Keselowski
• Joey Logano

Pennzoil 400 Betting Recap

Winner

• Martin Truex Jr. (+650)

Betting Value

• Joey Logano (+900)
• Kyle Larson (+1000)
• Kyle Busch (+12000)

Longshot

• Michael McDowell (+12500)