NASCAR’s Dover Doubleheader Betting Preview, Odds, Props and Picks

Once again in 2020, NASCAR will hold a doubleheader weekend at the same racetrack as the sport rolls into Dover, Delaware, for the 24^th and 25^th races of the season on Saturday, August 22^nd and Sunday, August 23^rd.

Fortunately, both races this weekend are called the Drydene 311 and they take place at Dover International Speedway which is commonly referred to as “The Monster Mile.”

Last week, NASCAR made their debut at the Daytona Road Course and it was a fun experience for both the drivers and fans. Chase Elliott won the race and is considered one of the betting favorites this weekend at Dover.

However, it’s Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. that sit atop the betting odds as the co-favorites for Dover’s doubleheader. Rounding out the Top 5 favorites at most NASCAR betting sites are Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin.

Race Profile

Dover International Speedway (DIS) held its first NASCAR Cup Series race in 1969. In 1971, the sport expanded to two annual events. This concrete oval track has a lap length of one mile with four turns all at 24 degrees of banking.

Both Dover races this weekend have the same breakdown:

• Total Miles: 311 miles
• Total Laps: 311 laps
• Stage 1: First 100 laps
• Stage 2: Second 100 laps
• Final Stage: Remaining 111 laps

Saturday’s Drydene 311 is set to begin at 4PM ET and will air live on NBC SN. Sunday’s Drydene 311 will have the same start time and air on the same channel.

It’s been a long, weird, 320 days

BUT IT’S FINALLY RACE WEEKEND!

Added on O for every remaining race!#DrydeneDouble #KDI200 #GeneralTire125 #NASCAR pic.twitter.com/AmdzQBrQrS

— Moooooonster Mile (@MonsterMile) August 21, 2020

What to Watch for at Dover

With all of the excitement heading into NASCAR’s Dover doubleheader, the following racing storylines are worth keeping an eye on this weekend:

• Will any driver win both Dover races?
• How will the Dover races impact the Playoffs?
• Can the Busch brothers get their first wins this season?
• Will Truex Jr. return to the winner’s circle?
• Will Ford break their drought at Dover?

Previous Drydene 311 Winners

The first NASCAR Cup race at Dover International Speedway was held in 1969 and won by Richard Petty. “The King” would also go on to win the annual second race at Dover which began in 1971.

However, it’s not Richard Petty (8) or Bobby Allison (7) with the most wins at this track, but none other than Jimmie Johnson (11).

The following is a list of the previous Drydene 311 winners for Saturday’s race:

• Greg Biffle in 2005
• Matt Kenesth in 2006, 2011, 2016
• Martin Truex Jr. in 2007, 2019
• Kyle Busch in 2008, 2010
• Jimmie Johnson in 2009, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2017
• Tony Stewart in 2013
• Kevin Harvick in 2018

The following is a list of the previous Drydene 311 winners for Sunday’s race:

• Jimmie Johnson in 2005, 2009, 2010, 2013
• Jeff Burton in 2006
• Carl Edwards in 2007
• Greg Biffle in 2008
• Kurt Busch in 2011
• Brad Keselowski in 2012
• Jeff Gordon in 2014
• Kevin Harvick in 2015
• Martin Truex Jr. in 2016
• Kyle Busch in 2017
• Chase Elliott in 2018
• Kyle Larson in 2019

NASCAR Drydene 311 Betting Odds

The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline and for Saturday’s race only:

• Kevin Harvick (+350)
• Martin Truex Jr (+350)
• Chase Elliott (+550)
• Denny Hamlin (++550)
• Ryan Blaney (+1000)
• Brad Keselowski (+1200 )
• Kyle Busch (+1200)
• Joey Logano (+1600)
• Aric Almirola (+1800)
• Jimmie Johnson(+2000)
• Alex Bowman (+2200)
• Erik Jones (+2500)
• Clint Bowyer (+2800)
• Kurt Busch (+3300)
• William Byron (+3300)
• Matt DiBenedetto (+4000)
• Cole Custer (+5000)
• Christopher Bell(+6600)
• Tyler Reddick (+6600)
• Austin Dillon (+8000)
• Matt Kenseth (+8000)
• Daniel Suarez (+10000)
• Ryan Newman (+10000)

Betting Favorites to Win the Drydene 311

According to most NASCAR betting sites, the following drivers are considered the odds on favorites to win Saturday’s Drydene 311:

Driver	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Start	Avg Finish	DNF
Kevin Harvick	2	8	19	15.3	13.7	1
Martin Truex Jr	3	7	16	10.8	12.22	2
Chase Elliott	1	6	6	8.9	8.6	1
Denny Hamlin	0	5	12	10.3	17.1	4
Ryan Blaney	0	0	2	13.4	21.2	1

Kevin Harvick (+350)

• Top 3 (+105)
• Top 5 (-167)
• Top 10 (-550)

The last time that NASCAR held a doubleheader at the same track was two weeks ago at Michigan and Kevin Harvick swept the field by winning both races. However, Harvick had his worse finish since Homestead when he ended up 17^th at Daytona last weekend.

Yet, even with a 17^th on the road course last Sunday, Harvick still leads all drivers in wins, Top 5s, Top 10s, laps led, the driver standings and Playoff points.

At Dover, Harvick has taken the starting line 38 times and has produced the following results: two wins, eight Top 5s, 19 Top 10s, a 13.7 average finish and one DNF.

Harvick has four straight Top 6 finishes and a victory over the last two years at this track. Since 2015, he has two wins, five Top 5s and seven Top 10s in the last 10 Dover races.

I believe Harvick will be a Top 10, Top 5 and possibly even a Top 3 car. With the way his season is going, you can’t count him out of any race. Yet, I am not labeling the #4 car as the man to beat this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr (+350)

• Top 3 (+115)
• Top 5 (-139)
• Top 10 (-500)

Martin Truex Jr. enters the Dover weekend sitting 7^th in the standings. But, as I said last weekend when I picked the #19 car to win the Daytona road race, Truex is heating up at just the right time.

Truex has five straight Top 3 finishes on the season as he came in 3^rd at Daytona last weekend. Although he hasn’t won since Martinsville, which was the 11^th race of the season, Truex is in the midst of his best stretch of races on the year.

Truex enters Dover where he has three wins and plenty of confidence. For his career, he also has seven Top 5s, 16 Top 10s, the 6^th best average finish at 12.2, and 2 DNFs. But, it’s what he’s done in the last six years that have many experts believing in his chances to win this weekend.

Since 2014, Truex hasn’t finished lower than 15^th at Dover. In fact, he has two wins, six Top 5s and 10 Top 10s over that span. Last year, Truex won the spring Dover race and finished 2^nd in the fall race. He has six Top 4 finishes in the last seven DIS races.

I believe Truex will be a Top 10, Top 5 and Top 3 car this weekend. I’ll save you fine readers from having to scroll down, as I believe Truex is the man to beat in Dover.

Chase Elliott (+550)

• Top 3 (+150)
• Top 5 (-110)
• Top 10 (-375)

As mentioned above, Chase Elliott won at Daytona last weekend. He and Truex were the betting favorites for the road race. Although I chose to go with Truex, I did say that Elliott was the safer pick of the two.

On the season, Elliott is 4^th in the driver standings and 4^th in Playoff points. He’s tied for the most stage wins in the series with six. Additionally, Elliott is also in the midst of one of his best stretches on the season with four straight Top 9 results.

Miles has met his match. 😤@chaseelliott will start at @MonsterMile from the #BuschPole!

Complete lineup: https://t.co/V213q5ONpJ pic.twitter.com/IYu8jxMcGr

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) August 19, 2020

At Dover, Elliott has proven that “The Monster Mile” isn’t too much for the young driver to handle. In eight starts, he has one win, six Top 5s, six Top 10s, the second best average finish among active drivers at 8.6 and just one DNF.

However, the one DNF came in the 2019 fall Dover race when his engine blew. Prior to that, Elliott never finished worse than 12^th.

If there’s any driver that can’t upstage Truex this weekend, it’s Elliott. I believe these two drivers will compete for the checkered flags in at least one of the two Dover races. The #9 car will be a Top 10, Top 5, and Top 3 car this weekend.

Denny Hamlin (+550)

• Top 3 (+150)
• Top 5 (-106)
• Top 10 (-375)

Like Harvick, Elliott and Truex, Denny Hamlin is also having a strong run over the last month as we get closer to the postseason. In the last five races, Hamlin has one win, three runner ups and a 6^th place result.

Last weekend, Hamlin surprised many by finishing 2^nd at Daytona. He still sits 2^nd in driver points and Playoff points as well. Hamlin also has the 2^nd most Top 5s, stage wins and laps led in the field. Unfortunately, that’s where the #2 ends for Hamlin as I don’t see him faring as well at Dover.

Sure, Hamlin might crack the Top 5 in one of the races, but he’s only done that five times in 28 starts at DIS. Furthermore, he has an average finish of 17.1 and four DNFs.

Over the last eight Dover races, Hamlin has two Top 5s, and six Top 10s. But, he also has two finishes outside of the Top 20 and has only led laps in two of the races.

I think Hamlin is a Top 10 car with a Top 5 ceiling. I don’t see Hamlin winning either of the two races or finishing in the Top 3. Elliott, Harvick and Truex are all better betting options this weekend than Hamlin.

Ryan Blaney (+1000)

• Top 3 (+350)
• Top 5 (+215)
• Top 10 (-165)

Blaney comes to Dover sitting 5^th in the driver standings and 6^th in Playoff points. Yet, where the other favorites are in the midst of strong runs, Blaney is not.

Over the last five races, Blaney has finished 20^th or worse in four of them. In fact, he’s finished outside of the Top 30 in the last two races. He’s had six finishes of 20^th or worse in the last nine races on the season.

Now, the #12 car heads to a track where he’s never won at. In eight races, he has just two Top 10s and that’s it. Blaney has an average finish of 21.2 which is by far the worst of any driver in the Top 10 of the standings. Last year, Blaney finished 15^th and 35^th at the two Dover races.

Blaney might sneak into the Top 5 for one of the Dover races, but more than likely his ceiling is a Top 10 result. Of the betting favorites, Blaney is the one to avoid at all costs.

The Best Drydene 311 Betting Value

The following NASCAR drivers offer betting value for this weekend’s doubleheader at Dover International Speedway due to their current betting odds, their past success at DIS, and their 2020 season so far:

Driver	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Start	Avg Finish	DNF
Brad Keselowski	1	5	8	11.2	13.1	1
Kyle Busch	3	12	19	9.9	14.3	7
Jimmie Johnson	11	17	25	10.9	9.9	2
Kurt Busch	1	9	12	11.5	17.6	7

Brad Keselowski (+1200)

• Top 3 (+300)
• Top 5 (+195)
• Top 10 (-185)

For all of the success that Keselowski had going into Michigan two weeks ago, he’s crashed into the proverbial wall the last two races. In fact, Keselowski literally crashed out of the second Michigan race and put up a modest 12^th place result at Daytona.

Those two results snapped a six race streak where the #2 car finished inside the Top 9. Yet, even with two subpar races in a row, Keselowski still sits 3^rd in the driver standings and 3^rd in Playoff points. He’s also third in wins, second in Top 10s, third in laps led, and tied for first in stage wins on the season.

At Dover, Keselowski has had an up and down career. He’s had stretches of strong results and stretches of poor finishes. However, he still comes in with a 13.1 average finish which is 8^th best among active drivers.

In 20 starts at DIS, Keselowski has one win, five Top 5s, and eight Top 10s. He’s also only crashed out once in his Dover career.

Keselowski’s value isn’t in winning the race as I don’t see him competing for a checkered flag. Instead, I think his value is with a Top 5 result. I believe the #2 car will be in the Top 10 for at least one of the Michigan races with a Top 5 finish.

Kyle Busch (+1200)

• Top 3 (+300)
• Top 5 (+200)
• Top 10 (-185)

Each week, it seems like Kyle Busch falls further down the odds on favorites list. This week, Busch enters Dover sitting 10^th in the driver standings, but 14^th in Playoff points. If he has another crash, like last weekend at Daytona, then Kyle could be in danger of making the Playoffs.

Fortunately for the defending Cup Series champ, Dover is a track where he’s had success at over his career. In 30 career starts, Busch has three wins, 12 Top 5s, 19 Top 10s, and a 14.3 average finish. Among active drivers, he’s tied for second in wins, third in Top 5s, and third in Top 10s.

I like Busch’s value for a Top 5 result. In his last six Dover races, he has one win, one Top 5, and four Top 10s. Busch finished 10^th and 6^th in last year’s Dover races.

Busch is typically a strong short track racer. With the threat of missing the postseason becoming more of a reality, I expect the #18 car to pull out some strong results this weekend. Look for Busch to be a Top 10 car in both races, crack the Top 5 in at least one Dover race, and flirt with a Top 3 as well.

Jimmie Johnson  (+2000)

• Top 3 (+500)
• Top 5 (+275)
• Top 10 (-140)

Jimmie Johnson is the “King of Dover.” One of the greatest drivers of all-time, Johnson holds the record for most Dover wins at 11. He also leads all active drivers with 17 Top 5s, 25 Top 10s, and has a 9.9 average finish which is 4^th best.

In his last seven Dover races, JJ has one win, two Top 5s, and five Top 10s. He’s also led laps in five of the races over this stretch.

I love Johnson’s Top 10 odds this weekend at -140. I believe this is the best value for the Dover doubleheader. Johnson has a near 70% Top 10 finish rate in his 36 career starts.

Furthermore, Johnson has four straight Top 12 finishes on the 2020 season including a 4^th place result last weekend at Daytona. At Martinsville and Bristol this year, two other short tracks, Johnson was 10^th and 3^rd respectively.

I’m taking Johnson to snag at least one Top 10 this weekend, if not two. And, I wouldn’t be surprised if he cracked the Top 5 in one of the Dover races.

Kurt Busch (+3300)

• Top 3 (+800)
• Top 5 (+450)
• Top 10 (+105)

Kurt Busch has finished inside the Top 18 in 21 of the 23 races this year including every race since Week 3 onward. Last weekend, he was 14^th at Daytona, which was slightly below his two 10 place finishes at Michigan.

Kurt currently sits 9^th in the driver standings and 13^th in Playoff points. He has a 21 point lead over his brother Kyle who’s behind him one spot in both standings.

I really like Kurt’s Top 10 odds this weekend at +105 odds. He’s finished in the Top 10 14 times this year and in 12 of his 39 Dover races.

Over the last four DIS events, the #1 car has two Top 5s, three Top 10s, and an 8.0 average finish. These a strong numbers to consider when placing a wager on Kurt Busch to crack the Top 10 in at least one of the two Dover races. His ceiling is a Top 5 result.

The Top Longshot to Win the Drydene 311

Ryan Newman (+10000)

• Top 3 (+3000)
• Top 5 (+1000)
• Top 10 (+325)

As the regular season winds down, it’s become more and more clear that Newman won’t be making the Playoffs. He needs a win in the next three races to get into the postseason. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening. Newman hasn’t won in 124 races and counting.

With that said, he does offer the best chance as a longshot pick for a Top 10 result.

At Dover, Newman has three wins, seven Top 5s, and 14 Top 10s. The #6 car hasn’t had the same success in the latter portions of his career as he did in the early portions of his career at this track. But, he’s certainly capable of pulling out a Top 10.

At Martinsville and Bristol this year, Newman was 12^th and 15^th respectively. He’s just on the cusp of a Top 10 at one of NASCAR’s short tracks and the 3-to-1 payout on a Top 10 result this weekend is worthy of a flier.

Drydene 311 Checkered Flag

With two races at the same track this weekend, we could have any number of combinations of Top 5 and Top 10 drivers. One thing I am certain of is that Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex. Jr. and Chase Elliott will be the three best drivers at Dover on Saturday and Sunday.

For the second straight week, I believe that Elliott and Truex are the drivers to win. Last weekend, I went with Truex over Elliott. This weekend, I’m picking each driver to win one Dover race apiece. Elliott offers better value, but Truex has been a force at Dover over the last few years.

Whichever driver doesn’t win on Saturday, will end up the favorite on Sunday along with Harvick.

My Top 5 Drivers

• Kevin Harvick
• Chase Elliott
• Kyle Busch
• Martin Truex Jr.
• Brad Keselowski

Drydene 311 Prop Bets

The following NASCAR prop bets are courtesy of DraftKings and for Saturday’s Dover race only. You can expect these odds to change some for Sunday’s race based on the results of Saturday’s event.

Car Number of Race Winner

• Even (-139)
• Odd (+105)

Of my Top 5 drivers, three of them are even numbered cars. However, my race favorites are Chase Elliott (#9) and Martin Truex Jr. (#19) who are both odd numbered cars.

For this prop bet, I am going with the Odd option at +105 odds. I like the plus money on this prop and I think Elliott and Truex are the two drivers to beat this weekend.

Car Number of Race Winner

• Over 11.5 (-105)
• Under 11.5 (-125)

This prop bet is a little more difficult since Elliott is Under 11.5 and Truex is Over 11.5. With that said, Hamlin and Harvick are also two drivers Under 11.5. If you add Keselowski to the mix then you have four legitimate drivers all under 11.5.

Take the Under as a good opportunity to hedge your bets with Truex winning Saturday’s race.

Manufacturer of Race Winner

• Ford (+135)
• Toyota (+150)
• Chevrolet (+260)

Ford has just two victories at Dover in the last decade with Harvick winning in 2018’s spring Dover race. Since 2012, Chevy has won 10 times at Dover and Toyota has won four times.

This weekend, Elliott’s Chevy and Truex’s Toyota are the cars to beat. Clearly Chevy offers the best value this weekend, but Toyota has more possibilities of winning. Along with Truex, his teammates Hamlin and Kyle Busch also driver Toyotas.

Team of Race Winner

• Joe Gibbs Racing (+155)
• Stewart-Haas Racing (+275)
• Hendrick Motor Sports (+350)
• Team Penske (+450)
• Any Other Team (+2000)
• Chip Ganassi Racing (+2500)
• Richard Childress racing (+3500)
• Roush Fenway Racing (+8000)
• JTG Daughtery Racing (+12500)

Joe Gibbs Racing has Truex, Hamlin and Kyle Busch as contenders at Dover this weekend. Hendrick Motor Sports has Elliott and Johnson, while Stewart-Haas Racing has Harvick.

Whichever driver you pick to win the first Dover race (between Elliott and Truex) then hedge your bet and go with the other for this prop. Since I am taking Truex to win on Saturday, I am going with Hendrick-Motor Sports to win this prop bet.

Drydene 311 Betting Recap

Betting Value

• Brad Keselowski (+1000)
• Kyle Busch (+1200)
• Jimmie Johnson (+2800)
• Kurt Busch (+3300)

Longshot

• Ryan Newman (+10000)

Winner

• Martin Truex Jr. (+350)
• Chase Elliott (+550)