NASCAR’s Federated Auto Parts 400 Betting Preview, Odds and Picks

On Saturday, September 12^th, NASCAR returns to action with a night race from Richmond. This is the second race of the Playoffs and the action has certainly picked up.

Last weekend, Kevin Harvick announced to the field that he’s still the man to beat in 2020 and extended his overall lead in the standings by winning at Darlington.

This week, Harvick is once again one of the odds on favorites to win according to the best NASCAR betting sites. He’s tied with Martin Truex Jr. atop the betting odds. Drafting behind them are Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin.

Race Profile

Richmond Raceway is a short track with a lap distance of .75 miles and shaped like the letter “D.” All four turns have a banking of 14 degrees and the surface is made of asphalt. Saturday’s Federated Auto Parts 400 breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 300 miles
• Total Laps: 400 laps
• Stage 1: First 100 miles
• Stage 2: Second 100 miles
• Final Stage: Remaining 200 miles

The Federated Auto Parts 400 is set to begin at 7:30 PM ET and will air live on NBCSN.

✨ 𝗧𝗛𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗘 𝗦𝗟𝗘𝗘𝗣𝗦 ✨

SAT, SEPT. 12 | 7:30 PM ET | NBCSN#Federated400 x #NASCARPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/xhSo2rTLS9

— Richmond Raceway (@RichmondRaceway) September 9, 2020

What to Watch for at Richmond

With all of the racing action heading into the second weekend of the Playoffs, the following on-track storylines are worth keeping an eye on this Saturday at Richmond:

• Can Kyle Busch pick up his first win of the season?
• Will a non-Playoff driver win this race?
• Can Joe Gibbs Racing continue their recent domination at Richmond?
• How will the Playoff standings shakeout?

2020 NASCAR Playoff Standings

The current Playoff standings heading into the first race of the postseason:

1. Kevin Harvick (2106)
2. Denny Hamlin (2087)
3. Joey Logano (2060)
4. Brad Keselowski (2055)
5. Alex Bowman (2052)
6. Martin Truex Jr. (2049)
7. Chase Elliott (2045)
8. Austin Dillon  (2043)
9. William Byron (2042)
10. Kyle Busch (2040)
11. Kurt Busch (2037)
12. Aric Almirola (2005)

Below the Cutoff Line

1. Clint Bowyer (2033)
2. Cole Custer (2030)
3. Matt Dibenedetto (2016)
4. Ryan Blaney (2016)

Nine active drivers have multiple wins at @RichmondRaceway.@KyleBusch is the only one with more than three. #NASCARPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/2AFUuplfQX

— #NASCARPlayoffs on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) September 11, 2020

Previous Federated Auto Parts 400 Winners

The first Richmond fall race began in 1958 and was won by Speedy Thompson. “The King” Richard Petty holds the all-time mark for most wins in this race with seven. Of the active drivers, Denny Hamlin has the most wins of this race with three. Martin Truex Jr. is the defending champ.

The following is a list of winners dating back to 2005:

• Kurt Busch in 2005
• Kevin Harvick in 2006, 2011
• Jimmie Johnson in 2007, 2008
• Denny Hamlin in 2009, 2010, 2016
• Clint Bowyer in 2012
• Carl Edwards in 2013
• Brad Keselowski in 2014
• Matt Kenseth in 2015
• Kyle Larson in 2017
• Kyle Busch in 2018
• Martin Truex Jr. in 2019

NASCAR Federated Auto Parts 400 Betting Odds

The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

• Martin Truex Jr (+325)
• Kevin Harvick (+375)
• Denny Hamlin (+450)
• Kyle Busch (+600)
• Brad Keselowski (+1000)
• Joey Logano (+1000)
• Chase Elliott (+1400)
• Aric Almirola (+2500)
• Clint Bowyer (+3300)
• Erik Jones (+3300)
• Kurt Busch (+3300)
• Ryan Blaney (+3300)
• Alex Bowman (+4000)
• Christopher Bell(+5000)
• Jimmie Johnson(+5000)
• William Byron (+5000)
• Tyler Reddick (+6600)
• Austin Dillon (+8000)
• Cole Custer (+8000)
• Matt DiBenedetto (+8000)
• Ryan Newman (+10000)
• Matt Kenseth (+15000)

Betting Favorites to Win at Richmond

According to most online betting sites, the following drivers are considered the odds on favorites to win the Federated Auto Parts 400:

Driver	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Start	Avg Finish	DNF
Kevin Harvick	3	15	25	13.1	9.8	0
Martin Truex Jr	2	5	11	13.3	17.9	4
Denny Hamlin	3	13	17	10.1	9.1	0
Kyle Busch	6	18	22	12.1	6.8	0
Brad Keselowski	1	5	11	10.0	12.7	1

Kevin Harvick (+375)

• Top 3 (+110)
• Top 5 (-155)
• Top 10 (-560)

Last weekend at Darlington, Harvick proved that he’s still the class of the field with a solid win at Darlington in the Cook Out Southern 500. I predicted it would come down to Harvick and Denny Hamlin, but I went with Hamlin to win the race.

When other drivers began to fade last weekend, Harvick got stronger and eventually secured his 8^th win of the season. In fact, he’s won four of the last seven NASCAR races and has opened up a 19 point lead over second place Hamlin.

At Richmond, Harvick has three wins, 15 Top 5s, 25 Top 10s, and a 9.8 average finish which is third best among active drivers.

In the last 17 races at this track, he has two wins, 10 Top 5s, and 12 Top 10s. Harvick has finished in the Top 7 for four straight races at this track and eight of the last nine.

I fully expect Harvick to be at the front of the field for most of the race especially since he starts on the pole. You can lock him in for a Top 10, Top 5 and a Top 3 finish.

Because this is short track racing, anything can happen late in the race with bump drafting. But, Harvick should contend for another checkered flag.

Martin Truex Jr (+325)

• Top 3 (+110)
• Top 5 (-155)
• Top 10 (-560)

Truex enters the weekend 6^th in the standings after a disappointing 22^nd place result at Darlington last week. Fortunately, he heads to Richmond where Truex has had success at.

Truex has won the last two Richmond races, after sweeping the field in 2019. He has three straight Top 3s and has led laps in five straight races at this track.

With that said, I do have come concerns with the #19 car. For starters, he’s starting 14^th on Saturday night which means he will have his work cut out for him. Additionally, his 4 DNFS are the most among the betting favorites.

Prior to his three race stretch of Top 3 results, Truex had an average finish of 11.3. Now, I believe he will be a Top 10 car and potentially crack the Top 5, but I am not comfortable with saying he will be in the Top 3. It will take hard work and some bad breaks from other drivers for Truex to finish in the Top 3.

Denny Hamlin (+450)

• Top 3 (+130)
• Top 5 (-139)
• Top 10 (-500)

Despite leading 19 laps last weekend at Darlington and being a co-favorite with Harvick to win, Hamlin ended up a disappointing 13^th. Fortunately, he still sits in 2^nd place overall with a 27 point lead over 3^rd place Joey Logano. Additionally, Hamlin starts 7^th this Saturday night.

As mentioned, Hamlin has won this race three times which is the most among active drivers. His 9.1 average finish is also second best among the field. The #11 car had some early success in his career with two wins, but then went into a bit of a slump at Richmond for few years.

However, since 2015, Hamlin has been one of the best at this track. In the last nine Richmond races, he’s had one win and eight Top 6 finishes. His worst result was 16^th in 2018. Last year, Hamlin finished 5^th and 3^rd at Richmond which is a 4.0 average finish.

I believe Hamlin can finish 4^th or higher this weekend. In fact, I see him contending for the win alongside Kevin Harvick and one of his teammates: Busch or Truex.

Kyle Busch (+600)

• Top 3 (+185)
• Top 5 (+105)
• Top 10 (-335)

I said last week that Busch really needed a strong performance at Darlington in order to climb above the cutoff line. The 2019 Cup champion did just that as he finished 7^th overall and jumped up four spots to 10^th in Playoff points.

Busch is just five points behind 7^th place Chase Elliott and could make another big jump in the standings with a strong run at Richmond where he has dominated at in recent years.

For his career, Busch has six wins, 18 Top 5s, 22 Top 10s, a 6.8 average finish and zero DNFs. He leads all active drivers in wins, Top 5s, and average finish.

Over the last five races at this track, Busch has two wins, three Top 5s, and five Top 9s. His teammate Truex has won the last two races at this track, but it was Busch who won the two races prior as he swept the field in 2018.

I believe Busch will have a solid run on Saturday night with a Top 10, Top 5 and possibly even a Top 3 result. The #18 car will start 6^th this weekend.

Brad Keselowski (+1000)

• Top 3 (+225)
• Top 5 (+115)
• Top 10 (-278)

Keselowski’s 11^th place result at Darlington last weekend dropped him one spot in the standings down to 4^th as his teammate Joey Logano passed him up and leads Brad by five points.

Keselowski has had a strong run at Richmond over the last six years with one win, five Top 5s, and nine Top 9s in the last 12 races at this track.

Last year, Keselowski finished 7^th and 4^th which is a 5.5 average finish. I believe he has a shot at reaching that mark this weekend as I do like the #2 car to have a bounce back performance this Saturday. With that said, I don’t see Keselowski cracking the Top 3. His ceiling will be a Top 5 result.

The Best Federated Auto Parts 400 Betting Value

The following NASCAR drivers offer betting value for the Federated Auto Parts 400 due to their current betting odds, their past success at Richmond International Raceway, and their 2020 season so far:

Driver	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Start	Avg Finish	DNF
Joey Logano	2	9	12	10.7	11.1	1
Chase Elliott	0	2	3	16.8	12.8	0
Clint Bowyer	2	5	16	14.7	12.5	1
Kurt Busch	2	7	15	15.5	15.4	1

Joey Logano (+1000)

• Top 3 (+225)
• Top 5 (+125)
• Top 10 (-278)

Last week, I made the following prediction about Joey Logano at Darlington:

“I see Logano’s value being with his Top 10 odds and as he could even finish in the Top 5 if a few things break his way.”

That’s exactly what happened. Logano ended up finishing 3^rd in the race and also moved up to 3^rd in the Playoff standings. Now, he heads to a track where he’s won twice and has raced well at since 2014.

Over the last 12 races at Richmond, Logano has two wins, seven Top 5s, 10 Top 10s, and 12 Top 14 finishes. He’s led laps in half of those races and I see the #22 car running strong this weekend as well.

Last year, Logano finished 2^nd and 11^th which is a 6.5 average finish. I believe his Top 5 odds offer value this weekend as he’s finished in the Top 5 in four of the last six races at Richmond. I like Logano to be a Top 10 car with a Top 5 ceiling. He will start on the front row in 2^nd this weekend.

Chase Elliott (+1400)

• Top 3 (+275)
• Top 5 (+140)
• Top 10 (-230)

Elliott had a poor performance at Darlington last weekend as he finished 20^th overall. It was disappointing considering he had such a strong car for a good chunk of the race as he led the second most laps with 114.

For this weekend’s race, I like Elliott to crack the Top 10. He’s had three Top 10 results in the last five races at this track and has a 12.8 average finish.

It will take some luck for Elliott to crack the Top 5 with so many veteran drivers having more success at this track than the #9 car. With that said, there is risky value with Elliott’s Top 5 odds. He will start 12^th in the Federated Auto Parts 400.

Clint Bowyer (+3300)

• Top 3 (+800)
• Top 5 (+400)
• Top 10 (+100)

Last week I said stay away from Bowyer as he’s historically done poorly at Darlington, but the veteran driver proved me wrong with a 10^th place result. He also moved up one spot in the Playoff standings and is tied with Aric Almirola for 12^th place.

This week, I see value with his Top 10 odds. In 28 starts at Richmond, Bowyer has two wins, five Top 5s, and 16 Top 10s. He also has a 12.5 average finish and has four straight Top 10 results at this track. Last year, Bowyer finished 3^rd and 8^th at Richmond Raceway.

In addition to his recent success at Richmond, Bowyer has three Top 10s in the last five NASCAR races on the season. The #14 car will start 11^th on Saturday.

Kurt Busch (+3300)

• Top 3 (+700)
• Top 5 (+375)
• Top 10 (-106)

Where I was wrong with Bowyer last weekend, I was right with Kurt Busch as he cracked the Top 10 like I predicted. This week, I believe he will crack the Top 10 again as Busch has had some success at this track.

In the last 14 Richmond races, Busch has had one win, three Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and 10 Top 11s. He has a career average finish of 15.4, but during that last 14 races his average finish is 10.3.

For the 2020 season to date, Busch has 15 Top 10s including six in the last 11 races. The #1 car will start 8^th on Saturday and I really like his Top 10 value this weekend.

The Top Longshot to Win the Federated Auto Parts 400

Jimmie Johnson (+5000)

• Top 3 (+800)
• Top 5 (+400)
• Top 10 (+100)

Like most tracks on the NASCAR Cup circuit, Jimmie Johnson has won multiple times at Richmond. Unfortunately, his three wins all came between 2007 and 2008 and the HOF driver hasn’t won since then.

However, Johnson has been able to score two Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and 11 Top 12s since the fall of 2014. Last year, Johnson was 12^th and 10^th overall.

Johnson is a longshot to win this race and to finish in the Top 5 or Top 3. But, his Top 10 odds have some value based on his success at Richmond over the last six years.

Avoid These Playoff Drivers at Richmond

The following Playoff drivers should be avoided this weekend at Richmond:

• Alex Bowman (+4000) – Bowman sits 5^th in the Playoff standings, but he’s been downright awful at Richmond in his career. Through eight starts, Bowman hasn’t finished higher than 12^th and has a 25.6 average finish.
• Austin Dillon (+8000) – Last week, Dillon came through as I picked him as my longshot to win the race but believed he would crack the Top 10. Dillon finished 2^nd to Harvick.
• Unfortunately, this weekend, I don’t see Dillon having the same success. He has just two Top 10s in 12 starts and an average finish of 18.7.
• William Byron (+5000) – In four career races at Richmond, Byron has a 17.2 average finish and hasn’t placed higher than 12^th. He would be incredibly lucky to finish in the Top 10 and I just don’t see that happening at such a tough track.
• Aric Almirola (+2500) – Almirola does have five Top 10s in 16 Richmond races, but only one in the last five. I don’t like his Top 10 odds for this weekend, and feel there are better options than the #10 car on Saturday.
• Cole Custer (+8000) – Simply put, Custer just doesn’t have the experience at this track to have any substantial success on Saturday. In his one start, Custer finished 26^th Custer scored a lucky win this season at Kentucky, which is the only reason he’s even in the Playoffs.
• Matt DiBenedetto (+8000) – The #95 car has a 28.7 average finish at Richmond, which is the worst among Playoff drivers. In 10 starts, his best finish was 16^th. “Matty D” will put his Playoff hopes in next week’s race since he won’t be a threat to even crack the Top 15 on Saturday.
• Ryan Blaney (+3300) – After a poor performance at Darlington last week, Blaney took a tumble in the standings as he fell from 7^th to a tie with DiBenedetto for the 15^th Now, he heads to Richmond where he has a 25.5 average finish and has never finished higher than 17^th.

Federated Auto Parts 400 Checkered Flag

My Top 5 drivers for Saturday’s night race at Richmond are Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Joey Logano.

.@KyleBusch and @MartinTruex_Jr have won the last 4️⃣ races at @RichmondRaceway.

Let us know if that changes Saturday night 🔽 pic.twitter.com/DHEOTHu8VQ

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) September 10, 2020

This week, I believe Kyle Busch will be a Top 3 car along with Hamlin and Harvick. I hate sounding like a broken record, but Hamlin and Harvick have to be the favorites to win on Saturday.

I also hate picking against Harvick, but I think we’re going to get a Joe Gibbs Racing driver in the winner’s circle. Since Hamlin has been the best among JGR drivers, it makes sense to take the #11 car this weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised if Busch found his mojo again and won, but I’m going with Hamlin.

My Top 5 Drivers

• Kevin Harvick
• Denny Hamlin
• Martin Truex Jr
• Kyle Busch
• Joey Logano

Well hello there, @RichmondRaceway! Let’s make some more memories Saturday night, mmmkay? 🥳🏆#TeamToyota | #NASCARPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/2CzY4L1G3l

— Joe Gibbs Racing (@JoeGibbsRacing) September 9, 2020

Federated Auto Parts 400 Prop Bets

The following NASCAR prop bets are courtesy of DraftKings:

Car Number of Race Winner

• Even (-155)
• Odd (+115)

Three of my Top 5 drivers have even numbered cars: Harvick (4), Busch (18), Logano (22). Although I took Hamlin to win this weekend, hedging our bet with taking the even option in this prop makes a lot of sense.

Car Number of Race Winner

• Over 11.5 (-112)
• Under 11.5 (-118)

Although three cars in my Top 5 are over 11.5, I am going with the Under because Harvick (4) and Hamlin (11) are the two best drivers in the field and they’ve combined to win five times at Richmond.

Manufacturer of Race Winner

• Toyota (+120)
• Ford (+130)
• Chevrolet (+350)

How can you not go with Toyota this weekend? Three Toyota drivers are among the Top 5 betting favorites and in my projected Top 5 drivers for the weekend. The odds are in favor of a Toyota winning and the +120 odds are too good to pass up.

Team of Race Winner

• Joe Gibbs Racing (+125)
• Stewart-Haas Racing (+350)
• Team Penske (+325)
• Hendrick Motor Sports (+600)
• Any Other Team (+2000)
• Chip Ganassi Racing (+2200)
• Richard Childress racing (+4000)
• Roush Fenway Racing (+8000)
• JTG Daughtery Racing (+10000)

Not only has Joe Gibbs racing won the last two Richmond fall races, but they’ve also won four of the last five. Additionally, they won three of the last four spring Richmond races as well.

Combined, JGR has won 16 Richmond races since 1999. The next closest active team is Hendrick Motorsports with 10 Richmond wins, but only five wins since 1999.

Take JGR this weekend as they have three drivers (Hamlin, Truex, Busch) who can all win on Saturday night.

Federated Auto Parts 400 Betting Recap

Betting Value

• Joey Logano (+1000)
• Chase Elliott (+1400)
• Clint Bowyer (+3300)
• Kurt Busch (+3300)

Longshot

• Jimmie Johnson (+5000)

Winner

• Denny Hamlin (+450)