NBA Pick for Tuesday March 23 2021: Denver Nuggets at Orlando Magic

It certainly seems like a mismatch on paper as the Denver Nuggets head out on the road to take on the Orlando Magic at the Amway Center in Orlando. The Magic are one of the league doormats and could be in the midst of a sell-off of key talent before the trade deadline. Meanwhile, the Nuggets believe they are a championship contender, but need to take care of business in games like this to make the assertion.

Nuggets at Magic Moneyline Betting Odds

Spread Betting Odds for Denver vs Orlando

Over/Under Betting Odds Nuggets vs Magic

The records pretty much tell the tale. Orlando was actually early in the season, winning six of their first eight contests. But then injuries hit and the bottom dropped out; they are just 8-26 since the hot start. And it’s been particularly grisly of late, as they they’ve dumped 10 of 11, with only an out-of-character win over Brooklyn on the plus side during that stretch.

As for Denver, they were a disappointing 17-15 on February 27 when they faced off with Oklahoma City. But that’s when they kicked off a 5-0 road trip. Overall, they’ve won eight of their last ten to move into a tie with Portland for fifth in the West, six games out of the top spot.

Injury Report

In terms of players who have been playing in recent games, the Nuggets have a pretty good bill of health. They are missing sixth man/part-time starter Monte Morris and probably will be again tonight. But the play of Facundo Campazzo and P.J. Dozier off the bench have helped to fill that playmaking void left by Morris’ absence.

For the Magic, Terrence Ross has been knee problems in recent games. Ross didn’t suffer any clear injury in a game and has been listed with soreness and as day to day. The full context here is that Ross’ high-scoring ability off the bench is just the kind of thing that would come in handy for a contender, which could be a reason why Orlando is being overly cautious.

Of course, the reason that Orlando are even considering trading Ross is that injuries have truly undercut their season. Check out the ugly stats:

That tweet doesn’t even take into account the caliber of the guys who have missed. Jonathan Isaac is missing the year after an offseason injury, Markelle Fultz went down for the season in the first month, and Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon, each of whom returned recently, have each missed a good chunk of time.

Still, it’s important to judge the Magic on what they have now. They could get Michael Carter-Williams back at the point tonight, and a lineup with MCW, Nikola Vucevic, Gordon and Fournier can hang with anybody. If they should surprise and add Ross to the mix, Orlando won’t be nearly as short-handed as you might think.

Dueling Nikola’s

You might not think a game between two teams so far apart in the standings would be must-see TV. But watching Nikola Jokic and Nikola Vucevic go at it is a must for any basketball fan. Here is the tale of the tape based on their 2020-21 stats:

• Jokic: 27.1 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 8.6 APG, 56.9 FG%, 86.6 FT%, 42.5 3PT%
• Vucevic: 24.6 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 3.8 APG, 48.3 FG%, 83.2%, 40.7 3 PT%

Jokic is just coming off his third award for Western Conference Player of the Week for his play. Vucevic obviously plays with a weaker supporting cast, and he’s not the passer the Joker is (who is?). But their play is very similar in the way they mix the modern ability of bigs to work on the perimeter with post moves that never go out of style.

Neither is a lockdown defender by any stretch, so you would expect the numbers to be good on both sides at the end of the game. But any foul trouble by either player would severely change the outlook of this game. And if one player should severely outplay the other, that also could alter the course of the battle (and the betting angle.)

On the Way Out the Door?

It seems likely that the Magic, as we see them tonight against Denver, won’t be long for this world. We already talked about the interest Ross will draw. But it’s the duo of Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier that could be coveted even more, with the rumor mill on Gordon really heating up after an apparent trade request:

As a bettor, the question then becomes: What do you do with a team like that? Gordon has only been back for a few games, and the results have been mixed. He lit up the Nets for a career-best 38 points in the upset victory, but then followed it up with a clunker in the Magic’s most recent loss to Boston, shooting just 3 for 13.

Fournier, on the other hand, has been in a pretty steady groove so far this month. In four games, he’s averaging 24 points per game on 50 percent field goal and 48 percent three-point shooting. And his minutes have remained high.

Even when Gordon struggled, he played 33 minutes in that game against Boston. What this indicates is that the Magic aren’t taking it easy with these guys, but rather seem to be showcasing their talents as they suit up. In other words, they should be effective weapons against Denver.

Betting Trends

The trends at NBA betting websites point towards Denver in this game. For instance, the Nuggets are 9-6 against the spread as a road favorite, compared to 2-4 as a road dog. It indicates that they can focus on the road against the weaker teams in the league.

Orlando has actually been respectable against the spread overall this year. But they have really struggled against the West. They come into the game at 5-10 against the spread in interconference play, which puts them at tied for 26^th in the league.

What’s the Best Bet?

The trends point toward the Nuggets, as do the NBA standings. But I feel like the spread overlooks the fact that the Magic are a much healthier team than they were when their record hit the skids. Granted, they shot lights out to beat the Nets, but the Nuggets aren’t known for their defensive value; they’re currently a so-so 14^th in defensive rating (compared to 5^th on offense with Jokic directing the show.)

On the first game of the road trip, the Nuggets could come out a bit sluggish. The Magic just need to keep it close to cover. I’d feel better about this if I knew Ross was playing, but even without him, the underdog is the right play here.