NBA Pick March 25, 2021: Washington Wizards At New York Knicks

Coming off a romping victory over the Washington Wizards on Tuesday night, the New York Knicks try to make it two in a row at Madison Square Garden in New York tonight. The Knicks remain in a wild battle for position in the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, the Wizards are still trying to climb out of the bottom of the standings despite having the electric duo of Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal.

Moneyline Betting Odds: Wizards at Knicks

Team
New York Knicks	-150
Washington Wizards	+130

Spread Betting Odds: Washington vs New York

Team
New York Knicks	-3 -110
Washington Wizards	+3 -110

Over/Under Betting Odds: Wizards vs Knicks

Team
New York Knicks	O 224 -110
Washington Wizards	U 224 -110

New York’s win on Tuesday over Washington put them back even at .500 with a record of 22-22. That puts them in a three-way tie for fifth in the East with Miami and Atlanta. But they aren’t too far from both the outhouse or the penthouse: They’re just a half-game out of fourth, which would give them a first-round series with home-court edge, but they’re also just 2 ½ games in front of 10^th, which would put them at the bottom of the play-in format.

For the Wizards, their outlook is much clearer, and that’s not a good thing. They had a brief flash of good play before the All-Star Break that gave them some hope, but now they’re right back in the doldrums. Losses in eight of their last ten contests have them sitting 3 ½ games out of 10^th in the East, and they just don’t seem to have the momentum to make another run at this time.

Injury Report

The Wizards will have a mostly full deck heading into the game with the Knicks, with the exception of forward Davis Bertans. Bertans hasn’t been anywhere near as effective as he was a year ago for the Wizards, but he still was capable of a hot night from behind the three-point arc. Coach Scott Brooks has been giving more playing time to rookie Deni Avdija in recent games to compensate.

The Knicks took a lot of grief for having too many point guards on their roster in recent years, but they actually came in handy due to a rash of injuries lately. But with the exception of Derrick Rose, who will likely remain out tonight, New York will have their full contingent of ball-handlers for this one. Elfrid Payton, whose defensive pressure will be key against Beal and Westbrook, returned this week and will be in the starting lineup.

So Far Not So Good For The Wizards

The Knicks are only three-point favorites at home despite the fact that they’ve played Washington twice and beaten them by 18 points in each contest. In the first game in Washington on February 12, the Wizards played without Bradley Beal, so you could make an excuse in that one. But Beal was out there on Tuesday night at the Garden and the margin was exactly the same

One thing that is interesting is that the two games took on entirely different tenors. In the first contest, the Knicks simply bullied the Wizards with their defense and rebounding. Take a look at the numbers:

• Wizards shot 38 percent from the floor and 26 percent from 3-point range
• Knicks outrebounded Wizards 75-47, including 15-9 on the offensive glass
• Knicks outscored Wizards 58-42 in paint

In Game 2 the other night, Washington was able to score the basketball much better, although a lot of that was in garbage time. But the Knicks found other ways to do damage:

• Knicks score 131, second-highest total of their season
• Knicks shoot 16 of 30 from 3-point range
• Wizards commit 17 turnovers to Knicks 10
• Knicks still better on offensive boards 12-7

You would think that having Beal in the lineup would have helped. But the league’s leading scorer at 31.8 PPG had a quiet night with just 22 on only 6 of 15 shooting. On top of that, he and Russell Westbrook combined for a total of -37 on the night, proving that the Knicks had an answer for the dynamic duo.

As for the Knicks, their own dynamic duo in the two games against Washington has been the unlikely pair of Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson. We know Randle has been great all year, but Robinson, who only recently came back from injury, has had some monster efforts as well:

• Julius Randle: 24 points, 18 rebounds in Game 1; 37 points in Game 2
• Mitchell Robinson: 10 points, 14 rebounds in Game 1; 16 points, 12 rebounds, 3 blocked shots in Game 2

The scary thing about Randle on Tuesday against Washington was that he could have done much more damage, but he sat out the entire fourth quarter with the game well in hand:

Although Randle is also a dangerous three-point shooter, the success these two have enjoyed in this matchup speaks to the Wizards lack of beef inside. That’s not going to change tonight. If Washington is able to reverse course, it will only be because they find a way to keep these two out of the lane with the ball in their hands.

Style Smash

This game is the ultimate matchup in conflicting styles. Washington is first in the NBA in pace and the Knicks are last. It’s clear based on the evidence of the first two games that the Knicks grind-it-out style of play has been winning the day.

Part of that is due to the fact that the Knicks are a disciplined defensive team under Tom Thibodeau. They simply don’t get too out of character and work very hard on defensive transition so that run-outs are unlikely. Even with Westbrook whirring down the court, it’s hard to picture Washington beating New York with their pace.

Beal’s Bombing Woes

For the most part, it’s been a banner year for Bradley Beal. The scoring championship seems like his to lose, and his partnership with Russell Westbrook has been an offensive win-win (although the defense may suffer.) But he’s doing all this high-scoring without being an efficient three-point shooter.

Beal has bottomed out with a career-low mark from deep this year, continuing a trend in his three-point percentages throughout his career:

• 2016-17: 40.4%
• 2017-18: 37.5%
• 2018-19: 35.1%
• 2019-20: 35.3%
• 2020-21: 33.3%

The Knicks won’t make it easy, as they are #1 in the league at three-point percentage defense. Beal went 0 for 3 from deep on Tuesday night. If he can find some open spaces and knock them down tonight, it will loosen things up, but that won’t be an easy task against this team.

What’s the Best Bet?

The Knicks have been a solid team at the Garden, especially against the spread. They’re fifth in the league against the spread at home at 12-8-1, and their 7-2 mark covering as a home favorite is tops. Washington has been decent covering as a road dog at 10-8.

Look for the Knicks to dominate the sites that offer NBA betting. Obviously, a huge night from Beal and Westbrook could change all that. But this one feels like an instant replay of the other night’s result, with an easy bet for New York to cover once again.