Pick: Oregon +1.5
Odds: -105
$100 Could Win You…$195.24
Two rivals from the Pac-10 conference find themselves going at on Sunday night as the Oregon Ducks take on the USC Trojans. The stakes couldn’t be higher this time around both on the court and at the sportsbooks online. This game takes place in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament so you know it going to be an interesting one. Considering their seeds in the West region (USC #6 and Oregon #7), one of these teams is going to be an unlikely Elite Eight entrant.
Moneyline Betting Odds: Oregon vs USC
| Team |
|
|---|---|
| USC | -140 |
| Oregon | +120 |
Spread Betting Odds: Oregon vs USC
| Team |
|
|---|---|
| USC | -2 -115 |
| Oregon | +2 -105 |
Over/Under Betting Odds: Oregon vs USC
| Team |
|
|---|---|
| USC | O 138.5 +105 |
| Oregon | U 138.5 -125 |
Oregon comes into the Sweet 16 with just one game under their belt in the tourney. They were able to advance into the second round without playing because first-round opponent VCU had to bow out due to safety protocols. But they were ready in Round 2, blasting #2 seed Iowa with a shooting barrage en route to a 95-80 victory.
As for USC, they’ve glided through the first two rounds with their relentless defensive intensity. They handled popular upset pick Drake in Round 1. Even more impressive was the way that they absolutely obliterated Kansas in Round 2, defeating the Jayhawks 85-51.
Rematch Impact
Can anything be gleaned from the first time these two teams met? Back on February 22 in conference play, USC blitzed the Ducks from the opening tap. They scored the game’s first 15 points, were up 21 at half, and dominated in just about every category in a 72-58 win that really wasn’t that close.
They did all this without starting forward Isaiah Mobley, who sat out that game with injury but comes in off a big effort in the win over Kansas. But you could also argue that Oregon comes in with better footing into this game. At the time of that first contest, senior guard Will Richardson was still rusty after coming back with injury, but he has not established himself as a cagey floor leader.
One stat from the first game that could be relevant is that the Trojans won the rebounding battle by a margin of 39-25 even without 6’11” Isaiah Mobley. Oregon makes its bones with its shooting. But they have to do a good job of gutting out some rebounds on Sunday night.
Styles Clash
USC and Oregon might be in the same conference, but they might as well be from different worlds. Theyir styles of play and strengths are about as opposite as you can get. And which team imposes its will on Sunday night will probably win the game.
USC’s defense has been practically impregnable so far in the tournament, as its opponents have discovered:
- Drake: 29.4 FG%, 30.4 3PT%
- Kansas: 29.0 FG%, 24.0 3PT%
The Trojans can be rugged out front because they know they have the Mobley brothers, Isaiah and Evan, to clean things up. Evan blocked three shots in each of the tournament games so far. USC also keeps the pace down in the doldrums as much as possible, because they know their strengths lie in a grind-it-out game.
But Oregon wants to pump up the pace as much as possible. They convinced Iowa, a team which had a decided edge inside, to run up and down the court with them. Oregon simply shot them out of the gym, making 11 threes and nailing 56 percent for the field, so that Iowa All-American Luke Garza’s 36-point effort all went for naught.
Neither team is going to give up their preferred style of play without a fight. Oregon will gladly trade some easy baskets by the Trojans for the opportunity to shoot threes on the other end before the USC defense sets up. But they have to get out of the gate much better than they did in their regular-season meeting.
Bad Blood
The Ducks were crowned regular-season conference champions in the Pac-10 over USC on what you might argue is a technicality. Oregon played two less games, going 14-4 to the Trojans 15-5 for a slightly better winning percentage. That twist, as well as the fact that USC had so thoroughly dominated Oregon when they met in the regular season, apparently had some of the Trojans feeling ripped off:
Isaiah Mobley on Oregon: “They’ve been on a roll. I don’t want to say necessarily they’ve got luck. They’re a good team. But they stole the Pac-12 championship from us.”
— Ryan Kartje (@Ryan_Kartje) March 23, 2021
Some skeptics might suggest that, if USC needs bulletin board motivation for an NCAA Tournament game, something is wrong. But it can’t be denied that, in a game that figures to be a battle, some intangibles can creep into the picture. Oregon might have just a little bit more hear coming out of the tunnel on Sunday night as they try to survive and advance.
What’s The Best Bet?
So much of this game is going to come down to the opening minutes, because whoever establishes a lead will then be able to play the kind of game they want to play. If it’s USC, they’ll be able to keep the pace at a snail’s pace and make Oregon take ill-advised shots. And it’s Oregon, they might just be able to speed the Trojans up.
March Madness Pick: Oregon +1.5 (-105)
Even with the Mobley’s patrolling the lane, the Trojans might not be able to slow the Ducks like they did the first time around. Oregon isn’t going to be trying to score in close anyway. Look for Oregon to jump out early with their shooters, like rising star Chris Duarte, and salt away an easy win to cover.
Jim Beviglia
Jim Beviglia joined Gamblingsites.org as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of freelance writing into contributions on a number of different topics. He handles the sport of horse racing for GamblingSites.org and the intersection between the worlds of cryptocurrency and online gambling in a weekly blog.
For his full-time job, Jim handles the television and track announcing duties at a h …
