The AL East should be one of the most fun divisions in baseball to bet on this season. The reigning champion Tampa Bay Rays are primed for a repeat run, while the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, and Boston Red Sox are all chasing them. Boston actually leads the division at 6-3 in the early going, while Toronto, New York, Tampa Bay, and the Baltimore Orioles all enter Monday’s action at 4-5.
The Yankees and Blue Jays will tangle on Monday night at the Jays’ temporary home in Dunedin, Florida. Toronto’s final game over the weekend against the Los Angeles Angels was washed out due to rain, but the Jays did plenty of damage on Saturday night. Toronto romped the Angels by a score of 15-1, which snapped a four-game losing streak.
| Odds | Yankees | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline Odds | -200 | +170 |
| Runline Odds | -1.5 (-125) | +1.5 (-105) |
| Over/Under Odds | Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110) |
The Yankees dropped two of their three games over the weekend in Tampa Bay before an 8-4 victory on Sunday. Gerrit Cole will make his third start of the season for the Bronx Bombers on Monday night, while Robbie Ray will make his season debut for Toronto.
Hot Start for Cole
Gerrit Cole was one of the strikeout leaders in the American League last season, and he’s picked up right where he left off to begin 2021. Cole struck out 13 over the course of seven shutout innings against the Orioles in his last start. On Opening Day, he fanned eight more Blue Jays while allowing a couple of runs on five hits in 5.1 innings of work.
Cole’s 43.8 percent strikeout rate likely won’t be sustainable, but he did post a 39.9 percent rate two years ago with the Astros. Toronto’s projected lineup has struck out 22.4 percent of the time against right-handed pitching dating back to the start of 2020, so it’s not the easiest lineup for Ks. We also know that Cole will allow the occasional homer. Teoscar Hernandez took Cole deep on Opening Day, and the right-hander did allow 14 homers in 12 outings a season ago.
Gerrit Cole, 101mph ⛽️
And insta-K strut. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/jf14xh94nt
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 6, 2021
Cole is typically dominant, but the Blue Jays do have enough power in the lineup to do some damage against him. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Marcus Semien, Lourdes Gurriel, Randal Grichuk, and Bo Bichette all have isolated slugging rates (ISO) north of .200 in their careers. Cole may rack up the strikeouts again, but the fact that this will be his second outing in three starts against Toronto is likely good for the Jays’ chances of putting some runs on the board.
The stadium in Dunedin also seems quite hitter-friendly. TD Ballpark ranks as the seventh-most-favorable park for hitters in all of baseball, trailing Coors Field, Fenway Park, Progressive Field, Great American Ballpark, Yankee Stadium, and Guaranteed Rate Field.
Ray’s Volatile History
Robbie Ray showed flashes of brilliance during his time in Arizona, but he was never able to put it all together. The lefty has a solid career strikeout rate over 28 percent at the big league level, but walk issues have plagued him for years. Ray has a career walk rate of 11 percent, and he posted a gaudy mark of near 18 percent last year between Arizona and Toronto.
The Blue Jays traded for him ahead of last year’s deadline with the hopes of trying to fix his weaknesses. Ray did strike out 25 hitters in five games for Toronto last year, but he also walked 14 while allowing 11 earned runs.
ROSTER MOVES:
🔹 LHP Robbie Ray activated from 10-day IL
🔹 OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. activated from COVID-related IL
🔹 INF Santiago Espinal optioned to Alternate Training Site
🔹 RHP Joel Payamps optioned to Alternate Training Site pic.twitter.com/EGr829jX7Z
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) April 12, 2021
The Yankees’ lineup may not be at full strength without Luke Voit, but Ray will still have to run the gauntlet in this one. Ray is a lefty with a wide platoon split that has allowed no shortage of power to right-handed bats in his career. Taking on a righty-heavy, powerful Yankees lineup in the Jays’ tiny spring training ballpark is about as bad a matchup as you can possibly find for Ray.
Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, and Gio Urshela all have well-above-average power numbers against lefties historically, while DJ LeMahieu, Clint Frazier, and Aaron Hicks are all quality hitters. The Yankees have an implied team total of 5.28 runs tonight, which is one of the highest marks of any team on the schedule.
What’s the Best Bet?
This is a tough spot for oddsmakers. We have two of the best offenses in the American League squaring off tonight, and the Yankees will be taking on a homer-prone lefty in Robbie Ray. That sets up as a great spot for New York, of course, but the Blue Jays are facing a much more difficult matchup against Gerrit Cole.
Pick: Over 9 Runs
Odds: -110
$100 Could Win You…$190
It’s rare to see a game with an over/under betting option of 9.0 runs when one team is expected to crack 5.0 by themselves, but that’s what we have. Oddsmakers are obviously expecting the Yankees to do most of the scoring in this one, but I do think Toronto will be able to put a few runs across against Cole and the New York bullpen.
This is a great opportunity to capitalize on the uncertainty and bet the over on 9.0 runs. The Yankees are fully capable of scoring double digits themselves in this one, while we did just see the Blue Jays score 15 in their last game. Given the quality of both lineups and the favorable hitting conditions in this ballpark, the over looks like a great bet in this one.
Taylor Smith
Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu …
