NFC Betting Preview: All SB LV Roads Lead Through Green Bay

With the Playoffs set to begin on January 9^th, the NFC will have to go through Green Bay if they want to represent the conference in the Super Bowl.

The Packers clinched the #1 seed in the conference, which means they will have home field advantage throughout the Playoffs. That’s a bit more significant in the NFC than the AFC Playoffs considering most of the NFC Playoff teams aren’t accustomed to playing in the snow.

The Saints, Rams and Buccaneers play in domes or warm climates. Furthermore, the Bears and the Washington Football team haven’t had much success at Lambeau Field in recent trips.

In reality, the other six conference Playoff teams will have an uphill battle to beat the Packers in Green Bay especially with the weather and Aaron Rodgers who will most likely be this year’s NFL MVP. Can any of them take down Green Bay at Lambeau Field?

NFL betting sites have released their updated odds on the seven teams’ chances of winning the NFC. Let’s huddle up to examine these odds, identify any value, and make some conference winning predictions.

NFL Betting Odds

The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

• Green Bay Packers (+145)
• New Orleans Saints (+300)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+450)
• Seattle Seahawks (+525)
• Los Angeles Rams (+1200)
• Chicago Bears (+3500)
• Washington Football Team (+4000)

Green Bay Packers (+145)

The last time that the Green Bay Packers were the #1 seed in the NFC, they went 15-1 during the regular season but ended up losing their first Playoff game.

Yet, this year was unlike any other season before, due to the pandemic. And, with the Playoff format expanding to seven teams in each conference, with only the top seed getting the first round bye, the Packers didn’t care about their history when fighting to the end to get the #1 seed in the NFC.

In fact, QB Aaron Rodgers believed it was necessary to get the top seed in order to allow some guys to heal up.

The NFC playoffs are officially coming through the Tundra. ❄️❄️❄️ pic.twitter.com/L5OXdycSm5

— #1 Seed🧀 (@HailRodgers12_) January 4, 2021

Rodgers is 1-3 in NFC conference title games, but does have a Super Bowl win on his resume. For the Packers to get back to the Super Bowl this year, it will be all about protecting Rodgers long enough for the future HOF quarterback to carve up the opposing defenses.

Make no mistake about it, this year’s Packers team rests on the throwing arm and decision making of Rodgers and the passing attack. Although the other NFC teams know it, they can’t stop it.

Green Bay has one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. They finished 5^th in total yards at 389ypg, 9^th in passing at 256.6ypg, 8^th in rushing at 132.4ypg, and led the league in scoring at 31.8ppg.

Aaron Rodgers had a phenomenal season that will earn him his 3^rd NFL MVP award. He was 7^th with 4,299 passing yards, 1^st with 47 TDs, 1^st with fewest interceptions at five, and 1^st in QBR at 84.4.

The duo of Rodgers and WR Davante Adams are lethal. Adams led the NFL with 18 TD catches on 115 receptions and 1,374 yards which were both Top 5 in the league as well.

Running back Aaron Jones finished 4^th in the NFL with 1,104 rushing yards, which gives this Packers team scary balance. Ever more haunting is that the Packers have a strong play action game due to the threat of the run.

For any team to beat Green Bay, they will have to slow down the Packers offense and put up plenty of points. That rules out most of the NFC except for the Saints, Seahawks and Bucs.

At +165, there’s great value with the Packers.

New Orleans Saints (+300)

Here’s a team that’s getting healthy at the right time. QB Drew Brees returned after missing a few games and his top receiver Michael Thomas will also be ready for the Playoffs after a stint on IR. Additionally, their top running backs will be off the covid list as well.

Although they finished 12-4, this team could’ve been even better if they were healthy all season long. Despite missing key players on offense for long stretches of the season, the team still finished 5^th in scoring at 30.1ppg, which is pretty remarkable especially when Brees didn’t play.

With Brees under center, the Saints are a more balanced offense. Yet, the real threat on this side of the ball is RB Alvin Kamara who had an impressive season as one of the best dual threats in the game.

Kamara finished the regular season with 932 rushing yards and 16 TDs. Who can forget his 6 TD performance on Christmas?

He also led the team with 756 receiving yards, 83 receptions and another 5 receiving TDs. That gave him 1,688 total yards and 21 total TDs.

The Saints’ offense should be able to march into the Divisional round as they play the Bears who won’t be able to keep up in the scoring department. Furthermore, the Saints defense will give Chicago’s offense problems. In fact, if fully healthy, this Saints defense is one of the best in the NFC.

New Orleans’ defense was 4^th in yards allowed (310.9ypg), 5^th against the pass (217ypg), 4^th against the run (93.9) and 5^th in scoring (21.1ppg). I don’t think many fans realize that the Saints have a Top 5 defense, which should help lead this team to a spot in the NFC title game.

With an explosive offense, and a Top 5 defense, the Saints offer a lot of betting value at +300 odds.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+450)

The time has come for Tampa Bay Buccaneers to prove that they’re a legitimate Super Bowl contender. All season long, they have been pegged as one of the favorites to win the NFC. After an up and down season that saw them finish 11-5, the Bucs look ready to battle for a spot in SBLV.

Let’s not sugarcoat this at all. The Bucs Playoff hopes come down to Tom Brady. This team will go as far as the GOAT can take them, which is pretty far if they play to their full potential.

Brady had a strong season with 4,633 yards (3^rd), 40 TDs (2^nd), 12 INTs, and a 72.4 QBR (10^th). He has numerous weapons in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. This offense was built for the Playoffs with its experience and explosiveness.

Who has the best game face? 😤

RT for Tommy, like for Gronky. pic.twitter.com/SMK2skQ8gf

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) January 5, 2021

The Bucs offense finished the season 7^th in total yards (384.1ypg), 2^nd in passing (289.1ypg), and 3^rd in scoring at 30.8ppg. Their weakness was running the ball as they averaged just 94.9ypg.

Yet, don’t let that stat fool you. They’re a pass first team and they do have a stud running back in Ronald Jones who almost eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards despite missing a few games this year.

Although all of the attention will be on Tom Brady and the offense, this defense is pretty stout. They finished 8^th in scoring (22.2ppg), 1^st against the run (80.6ppg), 21^st against the pass (246.6ypg), and 6^th in total yards (327.1ypg).

Their pass defense is a concern, but Tampa has been able to overcome that most of the season with their high scoring offense. They should be able to get through Washington in the Wild Card round and then head to Lambeau for a showdown between two HOF quarterbacks.

Let’s not forget that Brady and the Bucs handed the Packers their worst loss of the season when they beat them 38 to 10 in Week 6.

I think the biggest threat to the Packers is the Bucs. However, if the Bucs win their first two games and the Saints win their two games, it would put the NFC South rivals on a collision course for a third matchup. The Saints swept the Bucs this season.

Keep an eye on the injury to Mike Evans. If he misses a game, it could cost the Bucs. At +450, there’s plenty of value with Tampa Bay as well.

Seattle Seahawks (+525)

The 12-4 Seattle Seahawks captured the NFC West division, which was the most competitive division in the NFC. Now, they will have to face a divisional rival in the Wild Card round of the Playoffs as they host the Los Angeles Rams. These teams went 1-1 against each other this season.

If Seattle can get by the Rams then they will most likely have to face the Saints which will be a tough matchup. However, this team is peaking at the right time as they head into the postseason with an explosive offense and an improved defense.

Let’s start with the team’s strength which is QB Russell Wilson and the passing game. The mantra for this team heading into the 2020 season was “Let Russ Cook.” And, the all-pro certainly did that as he was the clear cut MVP for the first half of the season.

Although his numbers tailed off, Wilson still finished with 4,212 yards (9^th), 40 TDs (2^nd), 13 INTs, and 73.7 QBR (8^th). He has two talented weapons in the passing game with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett who formed one of the best receiving tandems in the league.

Metcalf is the speed, size and strength with 83 receptions for 1,303 yards and 10 TDs. Lockett also has speed, but does a lot of damage over the middle of the field. He finished with 100 receptions for 1,054 yards and 10 TDs. The 3^rd WR is David Moore who had 35 receptions for 417 yards and 6 TDs.

The running game is also poised to do damage in the postseason with a healthy Chris Carson who played in 12 games and finished with 681 yards and 9 total TDs. Backup RB Carlos Hyde will be ready for the Playoffs which gives them a powerful 1-2 combo.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Seahawks have really stepped it up in the second half of the season. Over the last seven weeks they’ve only allowed 15ppg which is down significantly from 28.8ppg over the first 10 weeks. Since Week 11, they’ve allowed just 13.7ppg and 287ypg.

The key to Seattle’s defense is Safety Jamal Adams who does everything. He’s battling through shoulder injuries and could miss time in the Playoffs if he can’t push through the pain.

With that said, Seattle has all of the tools on both sides of the ball to be a threat in the NFC. At +525 odds, this team offers plenty of betting value.

Los Angeles Rams (+1200)

If this were the Los Angeles Rams from two years ago then they would definitely be one of the favorites. However, this isn’t the high scoring team we grew accustomed to seeing. In fact, somewhere along the lines this team became a defensive juggernaut instead of an explosive offensive led franchise.

The Rams defense finished 1^st in total yards (281.9ypg), 1^st in scoring (18.5ppg), 1^st against the pass (190.7ypg), and 3^rd against the run (91.3ypg).

This defense is led by one of the best players in the league Aaron Donald. He has my vote for the AP defensive player of the year, which would make it the 3^rd time in his career.

The Rams also have DB Jalen Ramsey who is a shutdown corner that locks up the opposing offense’s best receiver. Ramsey and Donald have formed quite the formidable defensive duo.

The big concern for the Rams is their offense. Starting QB Jared Goff could miss the Wild Card matchup against the Seahawks due to breaking his thumb two weeks ago. That means the Rams would have to rely on backup QB John Wolford.

Additionally, they have concerns with WR Cooper Kupp who is on the covid list and starting RB Darrell Henderson who’s trying to heal from a high ankle sprain.

Even with all of their starters on offense, this side of the ball was a middle of the pack bunch. I would put them one step above the Bears in regards to QB concerns.

I actually think the Rams are overvalued here. With their offensive issues and QB concerns, this team should have higher odds.

Chicago Bears (+3500)

Speaking of the Chicago Bears (8-8), they backed their way into the Playoffs after losing in Week 17 to the Packers when they needed to win to get in. Fortunately for Chicago, the Cardinals lost as well and the Bears earned the 7^th seed due to a tiebreaker.

The Bears started off 5-1, then lost six straight games before going 3-1 to luck their way into the Playoffs. Yet, they have a tough challenge in playing the Saints who are a double digit favorite heading into the Wild Card matchup.

#DaBears are headed to #SuperWildCard Weekend! 🐻 @ChicagoBears #NFLPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/mER7zAzJlK

— NFL (@NFL) January 4, 2021

Although Mitch Trubisky has played better in the second half of the season after earning his starting QB spot back, he finished with 2,055 yards and 16TDs to 8 INTs. He has the physical tools to succeed, but his decision making and reading a defense are average at best.

Chicago’s running game improved over the last two months of the season as David Montgomery had some solid outings, which put him over the 1,000 yard mark.

Wide Receiver Allen Robinson also had a solid year despite the QB issues that Chicago faced all season long. Robinson finished with 102 receptions (6^th) for 1,250 yards (9^th) and 6 TDs.

The Bears defense finished as a middle of the pack unit, but they might be without LB Smith due to an injury and that will definitely hurt their chances.

Other than the Buccaneers, the Bears didn’t beat a winning team. Their other seven wins were against losing teams.

Chicago is outmatched against the Saints and pretty much any other NFC Playoff team except for the Rams and Washington. Yet, I would still pick the Bears to lose against those two teams.

They have no shot at winning the NFC.

Washington Football Team (+4000)

The 7-9 WFT captured the NFC East division after a controversial win over the Eagles who pulled starters late in the game. Yet, they have more potential to win in the Wild Card round than the Bears do.

For the Washington Football team to have a shot against the Bucs, they will need to rely on their defense which is 14^th against the run (112.8ypg), 2^nd against the pass (191.8ypg), 2^nd in total yards (304.6ypg), and 4^th in scoring (20.6ppg).

This Washington defense is solid and will cause problems for Tampa Bay or any other team that they face. They’re scary with their front four led by rookie Chase Young who has the makings to become a future Hall of Fame defender.

Unfortunately, the big issue with WFT is their offense. They have allowed 50 sacks this season and are 25^th or worse in total offense, passing and rushing. They also only average 20.9ppg.

News coming out prior to the Wild Card round is that Ron Rivera will possibly rotate QBs during the WC game. As the old saying goes, if you have to use two QBs then you really don’t even have one.

It’s been great seeing QB Alex Smith return to football and lead this team to the Playoffs, but the inspirational story will come to an end on Wild Card weekend. Washington just doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Bucs.

Who Wins the NFC?

Let’s start with the teams that have no shot at winning the NFC: the Rams, Bears and WFT. That leaves us with Seattle, Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Green Bay.

All four of those teams finished 11-5 or better and have the best offenses in the NFC. Furthermore, they all have MVP caliber QBs with Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers.

For Seattle to win, they will need to beat the Rams, Saints and Packers or Bucs. They would face two great defenses including a divisional rival and on the road at New Orleans. That’s a tough road and one that I don’t see happening if they are dealing with injuries to their defense.

Saints clinch No. 2 seed in NFC playoffs, complete first-ever NFC South sweep with 33-7 win over Carolina; Chicago up next in playoffs

Read more in the @Zatarains postgame recap! ⤵️https://t.co/1Fn9pOQCBq

— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) January 4, 2021

For Green Bay to capitalize on home field advantage in the Playoffs, they will most likely have to beat Tampa Bay and New Orleans. I have a hard time seeing that since the Bucs crushed Green Bay this season.

Tampa Bay is the one team that can go into Green Bay and beat them. They can match up against the Packers on both sides of the ball and have the GOAT who has no problem playing in cold weather.

I believe the NFC is going to come down to the Saints and the Bucs. With that said, the Saints have the better defense, a comparable offense, and have beaten the Bucs twice this year.

I am taking the Saints to win the NFC in what could be Drew Brees’ last season in the NFL. With a Top 10 offense and a Top 5 defense, this team is will finally break through after a few years of heartbreaking losses in the Playoffs.