In just a matter of days, the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs gets underway. NFL betting sites have released a plethora of odds for each Playoff game in the opening round.
However, in addition to popular player prop bets for the Wild Card Round, online betting sites have also released futures bets for Wild Card teams.
Let’s huddle up to examine these available wagers courtesy of BetOnline, identify any potential value, and make some winning predictions.
Will a Wild Card Team Make the Super Bowl?
- No (-200)
- Yes (+150)
In 1978, the NFL expanded the Playoffs to 10 teams and allowed two Wild Card teams per conference. This was the official beginning of the “Wild Card Round.” However, the term “Wild Card” was loosely affiliated with any team that didn’t win their division since the AFL/NFL merger.
In 1990, the NFL expanded the Playoffs to 12 teams and three Wild Card teams per conference. Following the realignment of 2002, the league reduced the number of Wild Card teams back to two since there were now four divisional winners.
Beginning in the 2020 season, the league expanded the Playoffs to 14 teams which meant that each conference would have three Wild Card teams each.
Despite the first three significant Playoff expansions, there have only been 10 Wild Card teams to make the Super Bowl:
- 1975–76: Dallas Cowboys–Super Bowl X
- 1980–81 Oakland Raiders–Super Bowl XV
- 1985–86: New England Patriots–Super Bowl XX
- 1992–93: Buffalo Bills–Super Bowl XXVII
- 1997–98 Denver Broncos–Super Bowl XXXII
- 1999–2000: Tennessee Titans–Super Bowl XXXIV
- 2000–01 Baltimore Ravens–Super Bowl XXXV
- 2005–06: Pittsburgh Steelers–Super Bowl XL
- 2007–08: New York Giants–Super Bowl XLII
- 2010–11: Green Bay Packers–Super Bowl XLV
This year, with six total Wild Card teams out of 14 Playoff spots, one might think that a Wild Card team could make the Super Bowl this year.
Yet, of the six Wild Cards, only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Baltimore Ravens have any realistic shot. The WFT, Bears and Rams are outgunned in the NFC. The Browns, Titans and Colts won’t make it past the Divisional Round even if they are lucky enough to win a Wild Card game.
For the Ravens to make it to the Super Bowl, they would have to beat the Titans, Chiefs and probably the Bills. That’s three road games and two against the best teams in the conference. That’s too tough of a hill to climb.
For the Bucs, they do have a better chance. They would have to beat WFT, Green Bay (who they already defeated in the regular season), and the Saints (who swept Tampa Bay).
Tampa Bay is the only Wild Card team with a realistic shot at going to the Super Bowl this post season. But, is a line of +150 really worth the flier? If these odds were higher, I would say yes. You are better off taking the Bucs at +450 to win the NFC than to take this Wild Card prop bet.
Will a Wild Card Team Win the Super Bowl?
- No (-500)
- Yes (+300)
Following up with our list from above, only the following six Wild Card teams have ever won the Super Bowl:
- 1980–81 Oakland Raiders–Super Bowl XV
- 1997–98 Denver Broncos–Super Bowl XXXII
- 2000–01 Baltimore Ravens–Super Bowl XXXV
- 2005–06: Pittsburgh Steelers–Super Bowl XL
- 2007–08: New York Giants–Super Bowl XLII
- 2010–11: Green Bay Packers–Super Bowl XLV
As you can see, it’s been 10 years since a Wild Card team took home the Lombardi Trophy when the Packers defeated the Steelers 31 to 25.
As mentioned above, the only Wild Card team with a realistic shot at making or winning the Super Bowl would be the Bucs. With that in mind, I would rather go with Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl odds of +1000 than take this prop bet of +300 for a Wild Card team to win SBLV.
You get way more value with Tampa’s SB odds than this prop bet and there’s no other Wild Card team to even consider at winning the Super Bowl this year, let alone make it.
How Many Wild Card Teams Will Win in WC Round?
- Under 2.5 (-130)
- Over 2.5 (-110)
Now that we got the Super Bowl Wild Card prop bets out of the way, we can take a look at a few more betting options. The first wager for us to examine is the prop bet asking how many Wild Card teams will win in the Wild Card Round.
🏈💪 𝙎𝙐𝙋𝙀𝙍 WILD CARD WEEKEND! 💪🏈
For the first time… 6⃣ Wild Card playoff games LIVE on Sky Sports NFL this weekend!! 🔥🔥🔥
👇👇👇 pic.twitter.com/gko1w3Wldi
— Sky Sports NFL (@SkySportsNFL) January 5, 2021
BetOnline has placed the Over/Under at 2.5 teams which means you are deciding whether or not three Wild Card teams will win in the opening round of the Playoffs.
Let’s take a look at the Wild Card matchups:
(7) Indianapolis Colts at (2) Buffalo Bills
- Bills -6 (-115)
I have no doubt that Buffalo will win this game. I’ve already gone on record in multiple articles stating that the Buffalo Bills will win and do so on the arm of Josh Allen.
Buffalo has the 3rd ranked passing attack going up against the 20th ranked pass defense. That favors Allen and his passing weapons like Diggs and Beasley.
(6) Los Angeles Rams at (3) Seattle Seahawks
- Seattle -3.5 (-102)
This is the one game I expect to be the closest during Wild Card weekend. The Rams have the #1 defense in the NFL, which has already held the Seahawks to 18ppg this season with one win.
The big concern is the injuries to Rams QB Jared Goff and Seattle safety Jamal Adams. If either player misses this game then that team will face a significant handicap.
With that said, I still expect Seattle to win this divisional battle.
(5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (4) Washington Football Team
- Tampa Bay -8 (-110)
The Washington Football Team has a solid defense, but their offense is near the bottom of the league in every major category. Furthermore, Tampa scores roughly 10 points per game more than Washington which means the WFT needs it to be a low scoring game to have any hope.
With that in mind, we all know this is Tom Brady time. And, there’s no way The Goat will lose in the Wild Card Round with this loaded offense even if Mike Evans misses the game.
(5) Baltimore Ravens at (4) Tennessee Titans
- Ravens -3.5 (-102)
This is a rematch from the Divisional Round of the Playoffs last year where Tennessee went in and upset the Ravens who were the #1 seed in the AFC and had the best record in the NFL.
Baltimore would love to get revenge against the Titans for last year’s debacle and this season’s OT loss.
A good one to open #SuperWildCard Weekend. #NFLPlayoffs
📺: #INDvsBUF | Saturday 1:05pm ET on CBS
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app pic.twitter.com/s981uMWHah— NFL (@NFL) January 5, 2021
I believe Baltimore will get the job done in this battle of the two top rushing teams in the league. The key to this game will be which defense makes the most plays.
I expect it to be a high scoring affair, but I see the Ravens defense getting the edge in this matchup as they’re getting back some key starters from injuries. The Titans defense is atrocious.
(7) Chicago Bears at (2) New Orleans Saints
- Saints -10.5 (+105)
This is the biggest spread for the Wild Card round and it’s because the Bears have a subpar offense with a subpar QB in Trubisky. Their offensive line is below average and the Saints have a Top 5 defense.
Furthermore, New Orleans will get back WR Michael Thomas for the Playoffs and all of their top running backs will also return from the covid list.
I don’t really see a scenario where the Bears win this game. Even if starting QB Drew Brees gets injured, backup QBs Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill are good enough to lead the Saints to victory.
(6) Cleveland Browns at (3) Pittsburgh Steelers
- Steelers (-6)
In the AFC, this could end up being the biggest Wild Card Round blowout. The Steelers have owned the Browns in head to head matchups going 13-3-1 SU in the last 17 meetings.
The Browns struggled to beat a Steelers team that rested Ben Roethlisberger and other stars in Week 17. Cleveland won 24 to 22 against many of the Steelers backups.
In the first matchup between the Steelers and Browns this regular season, Pittsburgh won 38 to 7. I expect this Wild Card game to be closer than that, but I do see the Steelers winning by double digits.
How Many Wild Card Teams Will Win?
As you can see, only one of these Wild Card teams is favored in their matchup and that’s the Ravens. Furthermore, four of the six games have spreads of at least 6 points or more, which indicates that oddsmakers don’t see any of those Wild Card teams winning.
By my predictions above, only the Baltimore Ravens will win in the Wild Card Round. At most, we will see two Wild Card teams win and that’s if the Rams pull off the victory.
For this prop bet, take the Under 2.5 (-130). In fact, this wager offers solid value considering that four of the six Wild Card games have a spread of a touchdown or more.
Will Any Team Get Shut Out in the Wild Card Round?
- No (-2500)
- Yes (+800)
In a year where the league saw high scoring marks across the board, the idea of a Playoff shutout seems farfetched.
To give you an example of the rarity this year, in 512 NFL regular season games there were only three contests that went into Overtime:
- Week 6 saw the Miami Dolphins shutout the Jets 22-0
- Week 11 saw the Carolina Panthers blank the Lions 20-0
- Week 13 saw the Patriots smash the Chargers 45-0
And, as you can see, none of the teams that were shutout this season made the Playoffs. In fact, none of the six teams that were involved in these shutout games are in the postseason.
Shutouts can occur in the Playoffs, but it’s highly unlikely with these 12 teams playing in the Wild Card Round. I’m actually surprised that these odds aren’t higher than -2500.
Most Points Scored By a Wild Card Team
- Under 40.5 points (-140)
- Over 40.5 points (+100)
I’ve tossed and turned over this NFL prop bet because that 40.5 Over/Under is very tight. However, for me, I like the Over 40.5 points due to the +100 value and some of the matchups.
The three teams that I feel have a shot at scoring 40 or more points are:
- Buffalo Bills
- Baltimore Ravens
- New Orleans Saints
Buffalo Bills vs Colts
The Bills scored over 40 points three times this season with two of those occurrences coming in their last three games. The Colts gave up 40 points just one time this year.
Yet, with the way Buffalo is playing, and their foot down on the gas pedal all game long, they have a shot at eclipsing 40 points against the 20th ranked pass defense.
Baltimore vs Tennessee
This is the Wild Card game that I feel the most confident in one of the teams scoring 40 points.
The Ravens have scored 38 or more points four times this year including three of their last four games. They eclipsed 40 points in two of their last four games.
The Titans have scored 40 or more points five times this season. They’ve also given up 40 points twice.
I see the Ravens hitting the 40 point mark in a shootout.
New Orleans vs Chicago
I like the Saints chances at scoring 40 points on the Bears. A big reason for this is that they will have plenty of possessions as that Bears offense is average at best and they won’t have a lot of success against a Top 5 Saints defense.
The Saints put up 52 points against the Vikings, who the Bears split with this season. Furthermore, the Bears gave up 41 and 35 points to the Packers who are comparable to this Saints offense.
With at least half of the games, and possibly a 4th with the Steelers, having a team that could drop 40 points, I am going with the Over 40.5 points in this prop bet.
The post NFL Future Bets: Will Any Wild Card Team Make It to SB LV? appeared first on GamblingSites.ORG.
