NHL Pick for March 23, 2021: Avalanche vs Coyotes

It was a fairly easy winner with last night’s pick between the Avs and Coyotes where we had Colorado -1.5 on the puckline at quality +115 odds.

The puckline has been a risky play in the NHL this season, but given the Avs’ explosive offense of late and the Coyotes struggling to generate much offense of their own, I felt it warranted a puckline look in favor of the road side.

The Avs took a 2-0 lead into the first intermission and a 3-0 lead after 40 minutes. While the ‘Yotes pulled within two late, an Avalanche empty-netter and another late marker sealed a 5-1 win and notched us a 1.15-unit profit in the process.

We’ll go right back to this matchup tonight for a second dose of an Avalanche vs Coyotes NHL pick from Arizona!

Avalanche vs Coyotes Betting Odds

Colorado vs Arizona Moneyline Betting Odds

Spread Betting Odds Avs vs Yotes

Avalanche vs Coyotes Over/Under Betting Odds

Avalanche vs Coyotes NHL Pick Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche

The Avs remain the hottest team in the NHL after winning their seventh consecutive game last night. It’s also not as if they are squeaking by opponents, either. Over the course of the win streak, Colorado has outscored their opposition 32-8 and outshot them 301-159. Sheer domination.

It’s certainly an offense not to be messed with at the moment. After burying another five last night, the Avs rank third with 3.40 goals per game on the season and remain first while averaging 35.2 shots per game on the season. All five of last night’s goals were even-strength markers, and the Avs’ power play dipped to a share of 13th with a 23.4% clip on the season as a result.

The even-strength numbers remain elite, both on the surface and underneath. At 5v5, the Avalanche rank first in scoring chances for/60, eighth in high-danger chances for/60 and first again in expected goals for/60, according to Natural Stat Trick. Their 2.74 goals for/60 at 5v5 this season isn’t astronomically above their 2.52 expected mark, so there’s not much reason to expect regression moving forward.

It’s more of the same defensively. The Avs have been one of the top defensive teams in the league all season, but have been flat-out impenetrable of late.

For the season, they are tied for second with 2.20 goals against per game on the season with an 86.8% penalty kill that ranks third. Their lone goal against last night came on the penalty kill.

Where Is This Avalanche Headed?

At 5v5, the Avalanche rank first in scoring chances against/60, sixth in high-danger chances against/60 and first again in expected goals against/60 on the season. Their 1.94 goals against/60 at 5v5 is actually above their 1.75 expected mark, so again, don’t expect much, if any regression here.

They’ve faced some low-scoring offenses of late, but averaging a hair over one goal against per game over their last seven is probably a pretty good number.

After Philipp Grubauer built upon his Vezina Trophy candidacy last night, we’re not quite sure who to expect in goal for the rematch tonight.

Hunter Miska has been the team’s backup to Grubauer in the continued absence of true backup Pavel Francouz, but the Avs just traded for goaltender Jonas Johansson from the Buffalo Sabres.

While we don’t know at this point who will get the nod between those two alternate options, we know it’s going to be a weak netminder getting the nod either way.

In five outings this season, Miska has turned in an ugly 4.16 GAA and .838 Sv%, most recently yielding four goals in just seven shots to the Ducks last week.

If it’s Johansson making his Colorado debut, he’d bring a 3.79 GAA and .884 Sv% into action from seven appearances this season in Buffalo. Johansson owns a 3.40 GAA and .888 Sv% across 11 starts and 13 appearances so far in his NHL career, all with Buffalo.

While the defense is elite — especially of late — the goaltending situation certainly puts their recent results in jeopardy.

Arizona Coyotes

The Coyotes were able to halt a five-game losing streak with a sin on Saturday in Anaheim, but last night’s loss marked their sixth over their last seven games as they now sit six points back of the fourth and final playoff spot in the West Division with the L.A. Kings needed to be leapfrogged in the process. They’re also just three points up on seventh-place San Jose with the Sharks sporting two games in hand.

So, their playoff hopes appear to be nearing life support even with 24 games remaining in the season. If they’re to get any momentum going, their offense needs to find a few more gears, to say the least.

The Coyotes have averaged just 1.43 goals per game over their last seven and have scored one goal or less in five of those seven games, including last night. The lowly stretch has dropped them to 27th with 2.38 goals per game on the season while their power play sits in a share of 21st alongside the Pittsburgh Penguins of all teams.

Their early-season underlying metrics suggested they should be scoring more, but it’s clear they haven’t generated much in terms of scoring opportunities since. At 5v5, the Coyotes rank 25th in scoring chances for/60, 14th in high-danger chances for/60 and 19th in expected goals for/60. Their 1.96 goals/60 at 5v5 isn’t too far below their 2.11 expected mark, either.

The underlying numbers aren’t as dire as the surface offensive number, but the Coyotes have also averaged a last-ranked 25.6 shots per game this season and 24.2 over their last seven contests. In this specific matchup, they’ve averaged 17.7 shots per game over their last three against the Avs

We knew Arizona would scuffle on offense, but their once-stout defense has largely disappeared this season as they’ve fallen below average here in 2021

They ranked fourth in overall defense over the last two seasons combined, but have slipped to a share of 18th this season with 2.97 goals against per game alongside the Calgary Flames. This despite owning a penalty kill that ranks seventh at 84.3% on the season.

Will They Let the Avs Offense Into the Coyote Den?

As a result, it would appear their 5v5 defense is lacking. According to their 5v5 metrics, that’s indeed the case as the ‘Yotes rank 26th in scoring chances against/60, 25th in high-danger chances against/60 and 26th again in expected goals against/60. Their 2.44 goals against/60 at 5v5 is right in line with their 2.39 expected mark, so they’ve deserved their even-strength defensive fate to this point.

With Darc Kuemper still on the sidelines with a lower-body injury and Antti Raanta taking the loss last night, it appears it should be Adin Hill getting the nod in this one tonight.

It would mark his fifth starts and sixth appearance of the season if he did start while he’s posted a 2.78 GAA and .908 Sv% in his small sample this season.

He was solid in turning in a 2.68 GAA and .918 Sv% in 13 outings last season, but owns a 2.81 GAA and .907 Sv% in 35 career NHL appearances to date.

He’ll certainly have his hands full with the NHL’s hottest team and offense in this one tonight.

Avalanche vs Coyotes NHL Pick

With Grubauer going last night against a cold Arizona offense, I was confident the Avs would shut it down defensively once again. While they’re very much in the conversation as the best defense in the NHL, the goaltending situation has me thinking the low-scoring Coyotes offense actually has an opportunity to score some goals tonight.

Even though they’ve averaged just over 24 shots over their last seven, their 5.88% shooting rate in that time is low. The lowest overall shooting rate in the league this season is the Sabres at 7.48% and the Coyotes are at 9.27%. I would assume this trend reverses at least some after this lengthy drought.

And then we have a white-hot Avs offense — second best in the league now — going up against a below-average defense and one that is giving up plenty of chances at even strength. While you could say Adin Hill has the goaltending advantage for the ‘Yotes in this one, his career numbers are rather average at best. As a result, I’m targeting the 5.5 total, and I sense a definite betting value in the over here at -117.