Oakland A’s at Los Angeles Angels MLB Pick for August 11, 2020

Teams	Runline	Moneyline	Total
A’s	+1.5 (-145)	+140	Over 9 (-110)
Angels	-1.5 (+125)	-150	Under 9 (-110)

Angel Stadium isn’t typically known as a hitter-friendly park, but the ball was flying on Monday night. The teams combined to score 19 runs in their series opener, with the Angels pulling out a dramatic 10-9 victory thanks to some late-game heroics from Mike Trout.

The two teams will do battle again on Tuesday night in Orange County. We have a couple of veteran right-handers taking the mound against one another. Mike Fiers will take the ball for the visiting Athletics, while Dylan Bundy will look to continue his hot start for the home team. The Angels are -150 moneyline favorites with Bundy on the hill in a game with an over/under of 9 runs.

Bundy’s Flying Form

Dylan Bundy has always allowed quite a bit of power, which made him a questionable fit for Baltimore’s homer-happy home park. The right-hander allowed a league-leading 41 homers back in 2018, and last year he was taken deep 29 times in 30 games.

The Angels banked on the notion that a move to Anaheim would help Bundy in the power department. So far, so good. He’s allowed two homers through his first three starts, but he has otherwise been dominant. Bundy is 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA through his first three outings, one of which came against these very same Oakland A’s.

The 27-year-old twirled a complete game with 10 strikeouts in his last start against the Mariners last week. In his first game of the year in Oakland, Bundy allowed just a run on three hits with seven punchouts in 6.2 innings of work.

Bundy has always had a good amount of success against same-handed hitters. He struck out over 28 percent of righties in 2019, which makes the A’s a pretty favorable matchup for him. Matt Olson is really the only big left-handed bat in the Oakland lineup. The rest of the order is largely populated by righties, so it’s no surprise that Bundy was able to carve them up in his only previous meeting with the A’s this season.

Fiers’ Struggles

Mike Fiers has a strikeout rate just over seven percent through his first few starts, which is among the lowest marks in all of baseball among starters. Of course, generating swings-and-misses has never been a huge part of Fiers’ game. Instead, he relies more on generating lazy fly balls and soft contact.

While those skills have resulted in a pair of no-hitters for Fiers in the major leagues, he’s generally a pitcher that doesn’t profile too well against powerful lineups full of right-handed hitters. The Angels are nothing if not an offense with plenty of right-handed thunder. Fiers’ splits have always been worse against righties, and tonight he’ll have to deal with Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Justin Upton, Albert Pujols, and Jo Adell, among others.

Fiers’ fly ball ways can be enough to allow him to skirt by when he’s pitching in his spacious home ballpark, but Angel Stadium isn’t quite as favorable. In his first and only meeting with the Halos on the year, Fiers allowed four runs on seven hits in just four innings of work. He didn’t record a single strikeout, either.

Oakland A’s at Los Angeles Angels – MLB Pick

The Angels are sizable favorites in this one, and with good reason. The fact that Bundy has enjoyed a good bit of success early in his stint with his new team isn’t a huge surprise. While it’s always a bit daunting to face a lineup with as much talent as Oakland’s, it’s just a spot in which Bundy should thrive. The numbers back it up.

It’s not ideal that he’ll be facing the same lineup for the second time in a matter of a couple of weeks, but it’s still a good matchup for Bundy on paper. The same can’t be said for Fiers against the aforementioned murderer’s row of righties that should be populating Los Angeles’ lineup this evening.

I think there’s merit to taking a shot on the Angels’ runline in this one. Fiers is in a spot in which he should struggle, while Bundy grades out nicely. LA should win this one fairly easily tonight, so grab the value on the Halos to win by at least two runs at +125.