On Friday, February 12th, the Houston Texans released star defensive player J.J. Watt per his request. This release shook up the league and social media as the former three time NFL Defensive Player of the Year is now a free agent and drawing immediate interest from a dozen teams.
Watt was drafted by the Texans with the 11th pick in the 2011 NFL Draft and became the face of the franchise until Deshaun Watson arrived.
On his social media, Watt made the following comments about his decision to leave:
“I came here 10 years ago as a kid from Wisconsin who’d never really been to Texas before. And now I can’t imagine my life without Texas in it. The way that you guys have treated me, besides draft night. I mean, you guys booed me on draft night. But every day after that, you treated me like family. And I truly feel like you’re my family. I’m excited and looking forward to a new opportunity, and I’ve been working extremely hard. But at the same time, it is always tough to move on.”
Where Watt moves on to is the big debate right now. Additionally, it’s also become a popular prop bet with NFL betting sites. Let’s huddle up and examine Watt’s future, the current odds, and see if we can make some winning predictions.
“The Green Bay Packers signing All-Pro defensive lineman J.J. Watt is the “most likely” scenario for the just-released former Houston Texans All-Pro, a source close to the situation tells https://t.co/d1kgWerqxI.” https://t.co/grvAjmgsYE
— Paul Bretl (@Paul_Bretl) February 15, 2021
JJ Watt Betting Odds
The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+275)
- Green Bay Packers (+300)
- Buffalo Bills (+400)
- Cleveland Browns (+500 )
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+550)
- Baltimore Ravens (+1000)
- New England Patriots (+1200)
- Dallas Cowboys(+1400)
- Indianapolis Colts (+1400)
- Los Angeles Rams (+1400)
- San Francisco 49ers (+1400)
- Las Vegas Raiders (+1800)
- Miami Dolphins(+1800)
- Tennessee Titans (+1800)
- Seattle Seahawks (+2000)
- New York Giants (+2500)
- Kansas City Chiefs (+2800)
Before the 2020 regular season ended, Watt said that he wasn’t interested in playing for a rebuilding team. So, that rules out options like the Giants, Patriots and Cowboys.
Another factor in determining where Watt plays in 2021 is that he will command a contract of at least $12 million per year, which would eliminate teams like the Buccaneers, Seahawks and Rams who are all cap strapped and unable to spend money on a player like Watt.
With that in mind, the following teams are worth considering for a wager on where Watt plays next season:
The Favorites to Land J.J. Watt
Pittsburgh Steelers (+275)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are the betting favorites due to Watt’s younger brothers T.J. and Derek playing for the team. T.J. already took to social media in effort to try and recruit his older brother to come to the team.
However, that might be wishful thinking. The Steelers already have a loaded defensive line with T.J. and Bud Dupree. Furthermore, the franchise is going to be in flux this offseason as it could be the last year that Ben Roethlisberger plays.
Lastly, the team’s salary cap will have some issues considering that they need to replace offensive players that will not be back in 2021.
It would be cool seeing all three Watt brothers playing together, but that dream might have to wait another year or two.
Green Bay Packers (+300)
The Green Bay Packers make a lot of sense for J.J. because he grew up in Wisconsin. Watt has also said in the past that it was a childhood dream to play for the Packers one day. Will that day be now?
Green Bay could certainly use the help along the defensive line, but they might not be able to afford it.
The Packers are projected to be at least $10 million dollars over the salary cap limit, which means they will have to make moves just to get under. Additionally, they have some key free agents that they might have to re-sign like RB Aaron Jones.
More than likely, they will rely on the NFL Draft to add talent or find a bargain free agent, which is not Watt.
Buffalo Bills (+400)
The Buffalo Bills are in a similar position as the Packers with a salary cap being right near the limit. However, unlike Green Bay, Buffalo has several moves that they can make to create cap space including restructuring contracts and releasing underperforming players.
The Bills need to improve their defensive line as they were unable to generate enough pressure with their front four in 2020. That was evident in the AFC Championship game as Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes had all day to pick apart the Bills defense.
Both GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott said after the season that they need to improve their defensive line. That was before Watt became available.
With the Bills, Watt could play for a contender and get paid in the ballpark of what he’s looking for. Wide Receiver Stefon Diggs has already taken to social media to recruit Watt. He’s certainly one player that could convince J.J. to join the Bills Mafia.
Cleveland Browns (+500)
The Browns have become a contender in the Watt sweepstakes as the team has the need and the salary cap to bring J.J. into the fold.
Let’s speak this into existence #BrownsTwitter!! @JJWatt @Browns
Jersey swap by: @TLAartwork pic.twitter.com/jK9tAH9jMM
— Pumpkinhead 🎃 (@PumpkinNation) February 15, 2021
Cleveland is a team on the rise and almost beat the Chiefs in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs last season. They are expected to make some moves this offseason to improve their roster in order to contend for an AFC Championship.
With that said, the Cleveland Browns still seem too unproven to sign a player like Watt. I would imagine he wants a more stable franchise with other talent around him on the defensive side of the ball, which the Browns don’t really have.
The Best Value to Land Watt
The San Francisco 49ers (+1400) offer solid value. This is a team that already has great talent on the defensive line. But, can you imagine Watt playing alongside Nick Bosa? This defense would be one of the best in the league.
The salary could be an issue if the 49ers don’t want to pay his asking price. Furthermore, the team will have a few other needs to prioritize first.
The Top Longshot for Signing J.J. Watt
If Watt wants to play for a contender then the Kansas City Chiefs (+2800) would be the ideal choice as they’re expected to win the AFC Championship for the 3rd straight year.
Putting Watt alongside Chris Jones would be great for the Chiefs and their fans as this defense would easily be Top 10 in the league. However, the Chiefs might not have the salary space to pull this deal off. Furthermore, they really need more depth on the o-line.
Who Will Sign Watt?
Every team on this list has a pro and con for signing Watt. With that in mind, I really like the Buffalo Bills for this prop bet. They are a Super Bowl contender with plenty of talent on both sides of the ball.
Hey @JJWatt —will you be Buffalo’s valentine? ❤️ #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/Q0kThogKk8
— Luke Russert (@LukeRussert) February 14, 2021
Furthermore, they have a big need for defensive line help and plenty of playmakers to surround Watt with. The team has multiple moves that they can make to get more salary space and outbid other teams on this list.
At +400 odds, there’s also value with taking the Bills as well. Buffalo believes they’re a player or two away from making the Super Bowl. Watt could be one of those players that transforms this team just like Diggs did last season.
Who Will Sign Watt? –Buffalo Bills (+400)
Rick Rockwell
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …
