Pistons at Hawks NBA Pick for December 28

With Christmas in the rearview mirror, the 2020-21 NBA season is officially in full swing. We’ve got several games on a nightly basis these days, which means you essentially have unlimited opportunities as a sports bettor. Barring some sort of health-related situation like the one we saw last March, we won’t have a day without NBA basketball until February.

We’ve got five games on the schedule tonight, which is pretty light by the NBA’s standards. There’s a lot to like about the games we do have, though. One of the more interesting games is a matchup between the 2-0 Hawks and the 0-2 Pistons. Detroit will be shorthanded in this one, while the Hawks will be getting at least one starter back from injury.

As of this writing, BetOnline has the Hawks as 10-point favorites at home in a game with an over/under of 223 points.

Pistons’ Load Management

The Pistons fell in a heartbreaking double-overtime loss to the Cavaliers on Saturday night. Three of Detroit’s five starters wound up logging at least 40 minutes in that game, which has caused head coach Dwane Casey to take a lighter approach when it comes to tonight’s game in Atlanta.

The Pistons will be without veterans Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose in this one. Griffin piled up 26 points, six rebounds, and four assists in 44 minutes against Cleveland, while Rose contributed 13 points in 33 minutes off the bench. With both gone, the Pistons will likely start Josh Jackson in place of Griffin, while rookie Killian Hayes is primed for a bigger role.

Jerami Grant last night:

28 Points

10 Rebounds

2 Assists

3 Blocks

9/14 FG

4/8 3PT

Brace yourself for plenty of statlines like this from Grant this season cause this man is on a mission🔥🎯🗣 pic.twitter.com/ULe2sSjTS8

— Nick Brandel (@MotorCityBanter) December 27, 2020

Hayes has struggled through his first two NBA games. He shot just 1-for-7 in 20 minutes against Cleveland, but tonight will be his first opportunity to earn significant minutes without Rose backing him up. Hayes was the No. 7 overall pick in the draft, and Casey surely wants to see what the rookie can do in an exploitable matchup against Trae Young, who is one of the worst defenders in the league.

Jerami Grant could also have a bigger role without Griffin eating up plenty of usage offensively. Grant left Denver to sign with Detroit this offseason because he wanted a better opportunity for himself. He piled up 28 points, 10 rebounds, and three blocks against Cleveland, and he’ll be one of the Pistons’ focal points offensively by default in this game.

Detroit has also gotten quality early-season minutes from newcomers Mason Plumlee and Delon Wright. Wright went for 19 points, six rebounds, and four assists in 42 minutes on Saturday night, while Plumlee is actually the Pistons’ assists leader (5.5) through the first couple of games. You don’t see many starting centers leading their teams in assists these days.

High-Flying Hawks

The Hawks have a couple of double-digit wins on their ledger to start the season. Atlanta was the most active team in the league this offseason after adding Danilo Gallinari, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Rajon Rondo, and Kris Dunn. Three of those guys have dealt with early-season injury issues, however, which has left Young with a massive amount of offensive responsibility.

So far, Trae has been up to the task. Young is averaging 36.5 points and 8.0 assists per game through the first two games with a usage rate north of 36 percent. There were some murmurs that Young would have to take on a lesser offensive role with the Hawks bringing in so many reinforcements, but that hasn’t been the case early on.

Trae Young has joined Michael Jordan as the only two players in NBA history to have 37+ points, 5+ assists and 5+ rebounds with less than 27 minutes played. pic.twitter.com/52mdcufjwo

— Kevin Keneely (@KevinKeneely1) December 24, 2020

Clint Capela is expected to make his regular-season debut after missing the first couple of games due to Achilles soreness. Capela came to Atlanta from Houston back in February, but injuries have kept him sidelined until now. Capela will come in right away and become a solid pick-and-roll partner for Young offensively.

What Capela’s presence does for John Collins remains to be seen. Collins has been filling in as the starting center through two games, but he’ll now slide to power forward in this game. Collins has the range to extend beyond the three-point line, but that may not be the best use of his offensive skills. Collins is a trade candidate after failing to come to terms on a contract extension before the season.

The Hawks are a perfect 2-0 against the spread so far this season, while Detroit is 0-2 ATS.

What’s the Best Bet?

This game has “blowout” written all over it. The Hawks have started the season on fire, and the return of Capela and potential return of Danilo Gallinari will only boost Lloyd Pierce’s deep rotations. Gallinari should slot in right away as a dynamic scoring option with the second unit, and it’s just hard to imagine the Pistons keeping up with this Hawks offense.

The Pistons are 22nd in defensive efficiency early in the season, and it’s fair to expect them to continue their downward trajectory in that regard. Grant had a nice game the other night, but I’m skeptical of his ability to carry an offense as the No. 1 option. That may be his objective tonight, and I just don’t think that’s the kind of role that suits his particular skill set.

Atlanta should roll in this game at home. They can’t afford the embarrassment of losing to this watered-down version of a Pistons team that may be the worst in basketball even when they’re fully healthy. The Hawks covering the 10-point spread looks like easy money tonight.