It’s a little hard to believe, but we have just over a month until Election Day. The good news is that means 2020 is almost over. The bad news is that this is expected to be a fairly ugly and contentious election season.
Political betting markets have been volatile over the past few months. Incumbent President Donald Trump has been a minus-money favorite to win reelection for most of the past four years, but Democratic challenger Joe Biden took the lead over the summer. Odds have shifted slightly back in Trump’s direction in recent weeks, but Biden is still a slight favorite.
At BetOnline, the former Vice President is a -120 favorite, with Trump (+100) not far behind. Polling from all over the United States has given Biden a steady lead over Trump. While Trump was able to eke out an Electoral College victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016, polls indicate that Biden has a strong chance to win back a number of key swing states.
Betting on the Electoral College outcomes may be a way for you to soften the blow if your preferred candidate doesn’t win the election. BetOnline is giving you the chance to wager on which candidate will win all 50 states. Let’s dive into a few of the swing states and try to unearth some betting value.
Arizona
| Candidate | Odds at BetOnline |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | -145 |
| Donald Trump | +115 |
As mentioned, Trump won just about every swing state he needed in order to pull the upset four years ago. That included a win in Arizona, a state he won by a margin of 48 percent to 44 percent over Clinton.
As of now, the Grand Canyon State looks primed to swing blue. According to the latest polling from FiveThirtyEight, Biden holds a 49 percent to 40 percent lead over the incumbent. This state may also wind up being a loss for Republicans in the Senate, where Martha McSally is trailing challenger Mark Kelly by a 50 percent to 42 percent margin in the most recent New York Times poll.
Arizona hasn’t gone Democrat since voting for Bill Clinton back in 1996, but Trump’s lagging poll numbers in the state coincide with his relatively weak showings in other toss-up states, as well. There isn’t a ton of value in betting on Biden at the current -145 odds, but given the nine-point lead in polling, Arizona’s 11 Electoral College votes seem likely to swing in Biden’s favor.
Colorado
| Candidate | Odds at BetOnline |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | -900 |
| Donald Trump | +600 |
Colorado is one of the more progressive states in the union, so it’s likely to stay blue in 2020. Clinton beat Trump here by a 48-43 percent margin, and Dems have won Colorado in each of the last three presidential elections. George W. Bush went back-to-back in Colorado in 2000 and 2004, while Bob Dole knocked off Bill Clinton here in ’96.
COLORADO
Biden 50% (+11)
Trump 39%
Jorgensen 4%
Hawkins 1%
West 1%
.
Head-2-Head:
Biden 53% (+12)
Trump 41%@GSG/@ProgressNowCO (D), LV, 8/28-9/1https://t.co/1FA3rl3BLH— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 14, 2020
While Colorado has a more red-leaning history, the state also has a Democratic Governor, and there is a decent chance that the Centennial State will have two Democratic Senators this fall, as well. Former Governor John Hickenlooper is leading incumbent Republican Cory Gardner pretty steadily in the same FiveThirtyEight polling averages.
Biden holds an even bigger lead here (53-41 percent) than he does in Arizona. There isn’t much value here either way. Biden seems like a shoo-in at -900.
Florida
| Candidate | Odds at BetOnline |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | -120 |
| Donald Trump | -110 |
As always, Florida will be the center of attention on Election Night. Florida is a key prize every election season, with 29 votes up for grabs. Democrats used to dominate the Sunshine State, but it has been leaning more Republican over the past several cycles.
Barack Obama won Florida in 2008 and 2012, respectively, but the state has voted Republican in three of the last five presidential elections overall. Trump won by a hair four years ago, 49 percent to 48 percent. Florida now has two Republican Senators and a Republican Governor, as well.
As is typically the case, Florida is once again a toss-up. Biden holds a narrow 43-42 percent lead in the latest Kaiser poll, which is obviously not a comfortable margin in the least. While Biden has consistently led polling in the state, a Trump win here wouldn’t be all that surprising.
As a result, you can get decent value on Trump to win his adopted home state at the current -110 odds.
Georgia
| Candidate | Odds at BetOnline |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | +240 |
| Donald Trump | -300 |
Georgia hasn’t really been a battleground state in years, but things seem to be changing. Georgia has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1996, including 50-45 percent in favor of Trump in ’16. The state has occasionally swung in favor of Southern Democrats like Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, but the southeast is generally reliable Republican territory.
Polls this time around favor Biden. A couple of polls released this week have Biden with slight advantages. Even so, the state is expected to stay red. Trump and the Republicans are massive -300 favorites to hang on to the Peach State.
GEORGIA
Biden 47% (+1)
Trump 46%
.
COLORADO
Biden 50% (+10)
Trump 40%
.
MAINE
Biden 54% (+14)
Trump 40%@FabrizioWard/@HartSurveys/@AARP, LV, 8/30-9/5— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 10, 2020
Georgia elected a pro-Trump Republican Governor in Brian Kemp in 2018, which was quite the controversial election. What could swing Georgia in Biden’s favor is young voters. Despite being the oldest presidential candidate in history, Biden is currently up 49-40 in polls among voters aged 45 or younger. Biden also holds a narrow edge in voters 46-65. Trump carries a sizable 15-point lead among senior citizens, however.
Georgia going Biden’s way means Trump may well lose his reelection bid, even if he manages to win Florida. We still have to give Trump the edge here given the state’s Republican-leaning history, but it won’t be the no-brainer call it was four years ago. Betting on Biden to carry Georgia at +240 offers plenty of upside.
Turnout is always the key for Democrats. If Georgians show up at the polls, Trump will be in hot water.
Iowa
| Candidate | Odds at BetOnline |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | +200 |
| Donald Trump | -260 |
Iowa was an Obama state in 2008 and 2012, while Democrats also carried the state in every election between 1988 and 2000. It broke in Trump’s favor in 2016, however, by a big 51-41 percent margin. The polling still favors Trump, who leads 47 percent to 45 percent in the latest Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research poll numbers. Iowa also seems likely to vote in favor of keeping incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst.
Trump won’t win Iowa by the same margin he enjoyed last time around, but it’s hard to imagine the Hawkeye State swinging in the other direction that this point. This is one of the few swing states that still seems to be leaning toward the Republican nominee.
Michigan
| Candidate | Odds at BetOnline |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | -225 |
| Donald Trump | +185 |
Clinton lost in upset fashion last time around for a variety of reasons, one of which was her failure to secure the midwestern states many believed to be Democratic strongholds. One of those was Michigan, whose 16 votes flipped in favor of Trump. Democrats had taken Michigan every four years between 1992 and 2012, but Trump took the state by a tiny 0.2 percent margin, 47.5 percent to 47.3 percent.
If polling is any indication, though, it won’t be nearly as close this time around. The latest Civiqs poll gives the ex-VP a massive 53-42 percent lead over Trump. That 11-point lead is one of the biggest polling advantages Biden has in any state, let alone a swing state. Biden has steadily held a lead of seven or more percent since earning the nomination earlier this year.
Trump shocked the world here last time around, but that won’t be the case in ’20.
North Carolina
| Candidate | Odds at BetOnline |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | +115 |
| Donald Trump | -145 |
Aside from a pro-Obama vote back in ’08, North Carolina has been Republican country. The state has gone red nine of the last 10 times overall, with Trump winning by nearly four percent four years ago. Trump remains a betting favorite here according to the latest US election odds at -145.
NYT-Siena College poll:
Arizona
Joe Biden 49%
Donald Trump 40%Maine
Joe Biden 55%
Donald Trump 38%
(Biden +2 in ME-2)North Carolina
Joe Biden 45%
Donald Trump 44%— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) September 18, 2020
However, Biden has held a consistent lead in polling. The New York Times’ most recent poll gives Biden a 46-45 percent edge, but the polling here has been neck-and-neck for months. While Biden may have the advantage, polling doesn’t necessarily account for everything.
North Carolina swinging in favor of the Democrats wouldn’t be a huge surprise, all things considered, but we still have to give Trump the nod here.
North Carolina –Trump (-145)
Ohio
| Candidate | Odds at BetOnline |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | +175 |
| Donald Trump | -215 |
If you want to win the presidential election, you’d better make sure you win Ohio. Ohio has voted in favor of the winning candidate just once since 1944. The lone blemish came back in 1960, when they voted in favor of Richard Nixon over JFK. The margins have been very close here over the years, and it hasn’t exactly been consistent in terms of party. Bill Clinton won here in 1992 and 1996. It flipped red for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. Obama went back-to-back in ’08 and ’12 before Trump took it in 2016.
Ohio has voted in favor of the incumbent running for reelection in each of the last four instances, dating back to Ronald Reagan in the mid-1980s. That’s a stat that favors Trump, of course, and the 45th POTUS is also ahead in the most recent polling. Trump is up 48-45 percent in Civiqs’ most recent showings.
Given Ohio’s history of favoring incumbents, we like Trump to take the Buckeye State.
Pennsylvania
| Candidate | Odds at BetOnline |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | -155 |
| Donald Trump | +125 |
Biden hails from Pennsylvania originally, but he has spent most of his political career calling Delaware home. PA went blue six election cycles in a row between 1992 and 2012 before Trump pulled his upset in 2016. The Donald toppled Clinton 48.6 percent to 47.9 percent in another incredibly close vote.
Pennsylvania is expected to lose some political impact following the 2020 census, but the state still has a sizable 20 electoral votes this time around. Biden is up 50-45 percent in Civiqs’ most recent polls. Trump pulled to within three percentage points of Biden back in the middle of May, but since then the Democrat has opened up a consistently bigger lead. His advantage has slimmed over the past few weeks, but a five-point edge is still noteworthy.
Pennsylvania looks like a good bet to turn back blue, as the odds indicate from election betting sites.
Pennsylvania –Biden (-155)
Texas
| Candidate | Odds at BetOnline |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | +350 |
| Donald Trump | -500 |
It’s hard to imagine Texas being a swing state, but here we are. Trump is still a pretty easy -500 favorite in the Lone Star State, who hasn’t voted for a Democrat in any election since 1976. Texas has 38 electoral votes this year, a number that is likely to climb after the census. Texas’ population has skyrocketed in recent years, and it’s still growing.
With Arizona polls looking strong for Biden lately and Florida polls looking weak (though he maintains a narrow lead), a person does wonder which camp Texas would fall into.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 18, 2020
Trump took Texas by nine points last time around, which was the smallest margin of victory for a Republican in the state since Carter’s win in ’76. The recent polls here are ridiculously close, with Trump holding a 47.7 percent to 46.4 percent lead on Biden.
They’re virtually tied, but the odds show that oddsmakers still have faith in Republicans doing their thing here. This will be very interesting to watch on Election Day, but it’s still hard to pull the trigger on a Democrat actually winning it this year. You can take a flier on Biden given the very profitable +350 odds, but Trump losing Texas would still be a major surprise.
Wisconsin
| Candidate | Odds at BetOnline |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | -160 |
| Donald Trump | +130 |
Clinton’s failure to win Wisconsin was a big shock, and essentially the final nail in her candidacy’s coffin in 2016. Clinton didn’t even campaign in the state because she was so confident that she had it in the bag.
Trump’s 47.2 percent to 46.5 percent win ended a seven-election run by Democrats. The last time the state flipped red was in 1984 for Reagan. A total of zero polls leading up to the 2016 election had Trump ahead of Clinton, yet he was able to flip the script once voters hit the voting booths.
Obviously, that kind of thing makes trusting polling numbers a bit dicey, but before 2016 polls had typically been reliable. Biden has a 50.4 percent to 43.6 percent lead over Trump in the latest Wisconsin polling averages. On Election Day of 2016, Clinton had an 83.5 percent chance of taking the state, with a lead of 49.6 percent to 44.3 percent in the final poll numbers.
Biden has a bigger lead than Clinton did. The history here gives me a bit of pause, so Trump at +130 is a solid value option as of now.
Taylor Smith
Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu …
