Politics Props: Will Trump Pardon His Family Members Before Leaving Office?

Donald Trump will be leaving office on January 20. While the president still seems to be frantically trying to overturn the results of last month’s election, the writing is on the wall. Joe Biden will take office in a little over a month. When that happens, Trump will return to private life.

What “private life” means for a person like Trump remains to be seen. He has been a public figure for decades, and he’s not the type of person we can expect to just ride into the sunset once his presidency is over. You can bet that Trump will try his hardest to remain in the spotlight even after he leaves the most important job he’s ever had.

While the clock is ticking on his presidency, Trump will still be in office for another 44 days as of this writing. The president hasn’t made many public appearances since Election Day, but he has still remained as prevalent as ever in the daily news cycle. Last week, the New York Times reported that Trump has been looking into the possibility of further exercising his vast pardon power before leaving the White House.

The president has already been active on the pardoning front over the course of his first four years in Washington. Just a couple of weeks ago, Trump pardoned former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, who had previously pleaded guilty on two separate occasions to lying to investigators about conversations he had with foreign entities. Flynn has remained loyal in his support of Trump, however, and Trump rewarded that loyalty with a controversial pardon.

Flynn isn’t the first Trump loyalist to earn a pardon. He won’t be the last, either.

The Times reported that Trump has been toying with the idea of pardoning himself and three of his adult children. In addition to Ivanka, Eric, and Don Jr., Trump has reportedly looked into issuing pardons for his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and his famed attorney, Rudy Giuliani.

BetOnline.ag is actually taking bets on whether Trump will pardon his family members or Giuliani before trading the White House for Mar-a-Lago in a little over a month. Are any of the BetOnline props worth your while? Let’s take a gander.

Will Eric Trump Be Pardoned?

• Yes (+130)
• No (-170)

Unlike Jared and Ivanka, Eric Trump is not with the Trump administration in any official capacity. While Eric has been installed as one of the top executives in Trump’s personal business, he hasn’t actually held a government position during Trump’s term. However, Eric has been more than happy to campaign for his father and serve as one of Trump’s most devout surrogates in the media over the last five years.

The Times reported that Trump has been looking into whether he should “preemptively” pardon his kids. Historically, presidents typically issue pardons to people that have already been convicted of something. In 1866, the US Supreme Court said that presidential pardon power,

“extends to every offense known to the law, and may be exercised at any time after its commission, either before legal proceedings are taken or during their pendency, or after conviction and judgment.”

That ruling doesn’t mention anything about a pardon having power over legal charges that may come down in the future, which has opened up a debate about whether Trump issuing a preemptive pardon would have any actual legal standing.

EXCL: Donald Trump’s Turnberry hotel was paid nearly £25,000 by the Secret Service for business trips by Eric Trump & his wife, incl a private golf excursion with 30 ‘international guests’. The resort has received circa £300,000 from US taxpayers. Thread👇🏻 https://t.co/g0TntzRhqI

— Martyn McLaughlin (@MartynMcL) December 5, 2020

Of course, we do know that pardons only apply to federal crimes. That means anyone that gets a pardon can still be subjected to local or state-level lawsuits. Trump absolutely can pardon members of his own family. President Clinton pardoned his own brother after his brother was convicted of cocaine possession, for example.

While Trump’s kids haven’t been formally charged with any wrongdoing, the Trump Organization has earned its fair share of legal scrutiny. Manhattan District Attorney Cy Vance has said in court filings that his investigation centers around potential tax or bank fraud. New York’s Attorney General, Letitia James, is also looking into similar issues.

Eric is a vice president of the Trump Organization. He was deposed back in October as a result of his personal involvement in some of the issues under review. The Trumps have cried foul and said that the investigations are essentially political witch hunts.

Donald may give Eric a preemptive pardon, but it wouldn’t do him much good. Eric could still be charged by the state of New York if either investigation turns up any wrongdoing. When it comes to Eric, betting against a pardon seems to be the most logical choice. The -170 odds on “no” are still attackable enough.

Will Ivanka Trump Be Pardoned?

• Yes (-160)
• No (+120)

Unlike Eric, Ivanka Trump has been intimately involved in Trump’s White House. Ivanka and Jared Kushner have served as special advisers to the president since he was inaugurated in 2017. Jared has emerged as a key figure in the Trump admin’s foreign policy initiatives, while Ivanka’s role has been more nebulous.

Ivanka was recently deposed by a local AG’s office in Washington DC in relation to potential wrongdoing with inauguration funds. Ivanka complained that the investigation was political in nature, but it does raise questions about potential legal trouble for the president’s eldest daughter.

.@MaddowBlog: Right around the time we learned about a possible pardon for her, Ivanka Trump was being deposed by DC’s attorney general’s office.https://t.co/irBcRtvgIV

— MSNBC (@MSNBC) December 3, 2020

While we don’t know whether a pardon would actually help Ivanka, it does seem as though she could be at risk of prosecution once the administration comes to an end. There is some value in the “no” options here at +120 odds from political betting sites if these investigations don’t amount to anything, but Trump hasn’t been particularly picky when it comes to his pardon power. His beloved daughter may well earn herself a pardon before Inauguration Day.

Will Jared Kushner Be Pardoned?

• Yes (+105)
• No (-145)

Jared Kushner has been one of Trump’s most trusted advisors since taking office, for better or worse. While Kushner’s actual job description is fairly vague, the 39-year-old has his fingerprints all over the administration.

While the Times reported that Trump has eyed the possibility of pardoning Kushner, the Washington Post reported back in February that Trump has actually put Kushner in charge of pardons. The report says that Kushner has been put in charge of a team of advisors that will vet and recommend potential pardon candidates for Trump to consider before he leaves office.

Back at the beginning of the administration, Kushner reportedly provided false information to federal authorities about his previous contact with foreign officials while he was being vetted for his security clearance. Despite the red flags, Trump wound up forcing the government to issue the highest security clearance to Kushner anyway.

Kushner and his family have had plenty of legal issues in the past. Kushner reportedly omitted information regarding contacts he had had with Russians offering dirt on Hillary Clinton during the 2016 campaign. It’s against federal law to provide false or incomplete information on background check documents for security clearances. Kushner hasn’t been charged with a crime for having done so, but once the Trump administration leaves, it’s not impossible to think that a charge could come down.

Trump could look to shield Kushner from a federal charge by issuing a preemptive pardon. While we don’t know whether the pardon would actually work, that doesn’t mean Trump won’t try. We know that Kushner appeared to break the law, so the president’s son-in-law would actually seem to be a logical choice for a presidential pardon. Take the value on “yes” here at +105.

Will Donald Trump Jr. Be Pardoned?

• Yes (+140)
• No (-170)

Like his younger brother, Eric, Don Jr. has been running the Trump Organization since Don Sr. took office. Don Jr. hasn’t worked for the White House, but he has been an avid supporter of the president’s campaign. He has been particularly visible on social media, and he reportedly has eyes on potentially launching a political career of his own someday.

Don Jr. got himself into some legal hot water during the Robert Mueller investigation. When Mueller was trying to figure out whether the Trump campaign willingly worked with Russia to impact the 2016 election, some of Don Jr.’s contacts came into question. Trump Jr. reportedly took a meeting with some Russians offering compromising information on Clinton during the ’16 campaign, but he was never charged with any wrongdoing.

Trump is also seeking “preemptive pardons” for Ivanka, Don Jr., Eric and Jared.

If his kids haven’t committed any crimes, he shouldn’t have anything to worry about.

So what’s he worried about?https://t.co/NxHqmyszw6

— Tim O’Brien (@TimOBrien) December 2, 2020

Mueller dug into whether Jr.’s contact with Russians and WikiLeaks could have constituted a campaign finance violation. Mueller never interviewed the younger Trump, however, and no charges came down. Unlike Eric, Don Jr. was not deposed in the Manhattan DA’s investigation into the Trump Organization a couple of months ago.

Mueller ultimately determined that Jr. did not realize what he was doing was criminal. Rather than charging him with having committed a crime unwittingly, Mueller simply declined to charge him at all. At this point, any legal issues that arise for Jr. will likely come from the state level. Again, there is no real justification for Trump to pardon Jr. if he won’t be facing any federal legal trouble.

There is some betting value here in “yes” at +140, but “no” looks like the more logical option for Don Jr.

Will Rudy Giuliani Be Pardoned?

• Yes (-165)
• No (+125)

It wasn’t that long ago that Rudy Giuliani was one of the most popular figures in American politics. He was credited with rallying New York City after 9/11 during his time as mayor. Since then, though, he has essentially become a caricature.

Giuliani has been one of Trump’s most fervent supporters since the president launched his first campaign over five years ago. Rudy has represented Trump in a legal capacity on a number of occasions despite not ever having an official White House job. Most notably, Giuliani has spearheaded Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 US Presidential election results. His press conference at Four Seasons Total Landscaping will forever live in infamy.

Big press conference today in Philadelphia at Four Seasons Total Landscaping — 11:30am!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 7, 2020

While Giuliani hasn’t been charged with any crimes, he has come under some legal scrutiny for his actions over the course of Trump’s term. Manhattan prosecutors have been eyeing Giuliani’s involvement with two other men in relation to the pressure campaign in Ukraine that eventually resulted in Trump’s impeachment. Two Giuliani associates – Igor Fruman and Lev Parnas – were arrested in October of last year and charged with violating campaign finance laws. Investigators have been looking into Giuliani’s role in the matter, as well.

Giuliani has insisted that he has only worked for Trump without also working on behalf of anyone in Ukraine, but the results of the probe remain to be seen. At this point, it’s tough to imagine that Giuliani hasn’t gotten himself into any legal hot water with everything he has done over the past several years.

Giuliani is more likely to be charged by the state of New York than the federal government, but we don’t know the full scale of the investigations surrounding the ex-mayor. It’s entirely possible that Giuliani has done something we don’t yet know about that could put him into legal jeopardy. Trump and Giuliani have remained loyal to one another over the years. Giuliani has continued to defend Trump, and it seems as though Trump will continue to have Rudy’s back, too.

Rudy will get a pardon. Bet “yes” here at -165.