Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets NBA Pick for January 28

The see-saw of an NBA schedule continues tonight with four games around the NBA. We had just three games on Tuesday before last night’s 12-game bonanza. The TNT doubleheader kicks off with an interesting matchup between the injury-riddled Trail Blazers and the new-look Rockets in Houston. The Rockets opened as two-point favorites in this one, but a flood of money on Houston has pushed the line to Rockets -4.5 as of this writing.

The Blazers continue to play without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, who are both sidelined indefinitely due to injury. Portland was also without swingmen Robert Covington and Rodney Hood on Tuesday night, but Hood is listed as probable to play tonight. Covington will miss a second straight game with a concussion, which means Portland will be playing without three starters again tonight.

Wood Returns to Rockets

The Rockets are expected to get Christian Wood back from an ankle injury, which means the team will be at full strength for the first time since trading James Harden just over two weeks ago. Wood has missed each of the last three games after suffering an ankle sprain against the Suns on January 20.

The 25-year-old is in the midst of a breakout campaign after inking a deal worth over $40 million to join the Rockets over the offseason. Wood is averaging career-highs in scoring (23.5), rebounds (10.8), and minutes (33.6) while getting a legitimate opportunity for the first time. He played very well down-the-stretch last season for Detroit, and he was able to parlay that showing into a nice deal with Houston.

So, Stephen Silas’ crew will have Wood, Victor Oladipo, and John Wall all healthy and playing together for the first time tonight. Houston has gone 4-3 since the Harden trade, but they enter tonight’s game on a three-game winning streak. While the offense without Harden has been a work-in-progress, the defense has looked very good. The Rockets have allowed 102.9 points per 100 possessions since the trade, which is the third-best mark in the entire league.

Lillard Leads Blazers

The Rockets’ defense is in another good spot to thrive tonight against the shorthanded Blazers. Damian Lillard is the only true threat the Rockets will have to look to contain. Don’t be surprised if the Rockets send multiple defenders at Lillard in an attempt to force other Blazers to beat them offensively. Portland could wind up relying more heavily on ex-Rocket Carmelo Anthony to do damage.

Portland has only played two games in the last week after a couple of scheduled games against the Grizzlies had to be postponed by the league. Portland returned to action with a 116-113 win over the Knicks last weekend before dropping a winnable game against Oklahoma City a couple of days later.

Lillard scored a team-high 26 points against the Thunder, and he did actually get plenty of help. Anthony and Gary Trent Jr. each contributed 22 points in starting roles, while Enes Kanter finished with 13 points and 22 rebounds in a losing effort. Anfernee Simons also went off for 26 points off the bench, but it wasn’t enough to nudge the Blazers past OKC.

While the defense has been a strength for Houston of late, the opposite has been true of Portland all year long. The Blazers are yielding 112.9 points per 100 possessions, which is the second-worst mark in the NBA. Only the Sacramento Kings (116.1) have had a more porous defense through the first month of the campaign.

What’s the Best Bet?

The Blazers’ lackluster defense is enough of a reason to sell stock in their long-term chances this season, even when healthy. While Lillard did get some help the other night, I’m not convinced that guys like Anthony, Trent, and Kanter are going to play quite that well on a nightly basis moving forward. Unless Lillard rediscovers his MVP form,  this team is going to struggle quite a bit on both ends of the floor.

While I do have plenty of reservations about the Rockets, they do seem to be gelling now that the Harden drama is in the rearview mirror. This is a team that would be rather lucky to nab a playoff spot, but there is still plenty of talent here. Oladipo and Wall are legitimately good defenders, so there’s a chance the Rockets’ recent uptick in performance defensively is not a mirage.

I like the Rockets to cover at home in this one. 92 percent of the money wagered on this game has come in on Houston to cover, and I’m inclined to agree. Bet the Rockets ATS tonight.