Ravens at Titans NFL Wild Card Pick and Prediction

Wild Card Weekend is shaping up to be the best NFL betting weekend of the year. We have six games in all spread between Saturday and Sunday. The first game on the Sunday schedule is a rematch of last year’s second round with the Tennessee Titans hosting the Baltimore Ravens. Just last year, Derrick Henry and the Titans stormed into Baltimore and upset the top-seeded Ravens in the Divisional Round, ousting the Super Bowl favorites before their playoff run even began.

The Ravens will be out for revenge on Sunday. Baltimore was able to sneak into the playoffs thanks in part to the Dolphins’ failure to take care of business against the Bills in Week 17, but Lamar Jackson and co. should relish the opportunity to get back at the team that thwarted their dreams a season ago.

Interestingly enough, oddsmakers aren’t buying the Titans at home in this one. BetOnline currently has the Ravens as 3.5-point favorites on the road in a game with a massive 54.5 over/under. That’s the highest over/under of any game on the week.

Can the Ravens Stop Henry?

Derrick Henry was the driving force in the Titans’ Cinderella run to the AFC Championship Game a season ago. Henry steamrolled the Ravens to the tune of 195 rushing yards on 30 carries just a week after racking up 182 yards in the Titans’ upset win over Tom Brady and the Patriots.

What’s he done for an encore? All Henry did this season was become the eighth running back in NFL history to eclipse 2,000 rushing yards in a season. Thanks to a dominant 250-yard effort against Houston in Week 17, Henry wound up finishing the season with 2,027 rushing yards alongside 17 touchdowns.

Derrick Henry’s last 2 games rushing vs. Ravens

2019: 195 yards (137 after contact), 0 TD

2020: 133 yards (63 after contact), 1 TD

“We’re going to try to play our best defensive football game,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. “We’re not conceding anything on any play.”

— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) January 4, 2021

While the Titans do have a well-rounded offense with Ryan Tannehill under center, Tennessee would be smart to find out whether the Baltimore Ravens are up to the task of stopping Henry early in this game. The 6’3″, 247-pound bowling ball averaged a career-high 5.4 yards per carry, and the Ravens were one of the worst run defenses in football this season. Baltimore allowed 4.6 yards per carry as a team. Only the Jaguars, Panthers, Broncos, Cowboys, Bengals, and Texans were less stingy against the run on a per-carry basis in 2020.

If the Ravens do find a way to slow down the Titans’ leading rusher, Tannehill is fully capable of leading the offense through the air. Tannehill infamously threw for just 88 yards in the win over Baltimore in last year’s playoffs, but he may be tasked with more responsibility in this game.

On the year, the Texas A&M product threw for over 3,800 yards with a career-high 33 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. Tannehill also added another seven rushing scores, so Henry won’t be the only ground-based threat in this game for the Titans.

Will Jackson Bounce Back?

Lamar Jackson enjoyed one of the most prolific statistical seasons in NFL history last year, but his inability to protect the ball cost the Ravens dearly come playoff time. He wound up throwing for 365 yards while rushing for 143 more in the loss to Tennessee, but the Ravens were only able to put 12 points on the board thanks to some untimely turnovers. Jackson threw a pair of interceptions and lost a fumble in the game. Baltimore also failed to convert on fourth down four different times in the game.

Jackson’s running game was scaled back a bit this season, but he still topped 1,000 rushing yards for the second straight season. Jackson averaged 6.3 yards per carry compared to 6.9 last year, but he totaled seven rushing TDs in both seasons. He was just as effective running the ball as he was during his MVP campaign.

The remarkable @KingHenry_2 performance for @titans Saturday night can not be overstated.

The man ran for 195 yards on 30 carries and had as many touchdown passes as presumptive MVP @Lj_era8

— Rich Eisen (@richeisen) January 12, 2020

The Ravens thrive on controlling the clock and keeping opposing offenses off the field. Coincidentally, that’s also exactly what the Titans want to do with their own ground game. It’s a cliche, but whichever team is able to win the time of possession battle has a leg up in this one. The Ravens had the ball for about five more minutes than the Titans did in last year’s game, but three different drives were prematurely cut short thanks to Jackson’s aforementioned turnovers.

The Tennessee Titans allowed 4,439 passing yards this season, which was the fourth-most in the NFL. Only the Falcons, Seahawks, and Lions allowed more yardage through the air. Jackson is going to have to be able to exploit that weakness in the Tennessee defense if the Ravens are to exact their revenge in this one.

What’s the Best Bet?

There was no “over” bet in all of football this season than the Tennessee Titans. 12 of the Titans’ 16 games hit the over this season, which was tied with the Raiders for the best mark in the NFL. Baltimore actually hit the under in nine of their 16 regular-season games as their offense was disappointing relative to preseason expectations.

The Titans are involved in high-scoring games just about every week. Their defense can’t stop anyone, and nobody has shown the ability to consistently stop the Titans’ offense, either. At least one team has crossed the 40-point threshold in five of the Titans’ last six games overall. Tennessee was the team to do so in three of those games.

Let’s not forget that these teams have already played once this season. The Titans went into Baltimore and came away with a 30-24 overtime win back in November. Henry rushed for 133 yards in that one, including a game-winning 29-yard scamper in OT.

I really like the over on 54.5 points in this one. With the way the Titans play, there isn’t much reason to believe points won’t be scored in this one. The Ravens have the better defense of the two, but Henry has had no issue slicing through Baltimore in each of their last two meetings.

This should be the most fun game of the entire weekend. Bet on the over on 54.5 points in this one.