Red Wings vs. Predators NHL Pick – February 11, 2021

After a tiny two-game NHL schedule last night, we get back to some normalcy in the form of a 10-game slate tonight, so let’s check out a Red Wings vs. Predators NHL pick and see if we can bank a winner on this fine Thursday evening!

Red Wings vs. Predators Betting Odds

Team	Moneyline	Spread	Total
Red Wings	+152	+1.5 (-158)	Over 5.5 (+103)
Predators	-169	-1.5 (+138)	Under 5.5 (-114)

Red Wings vs. Predators NHL Pick Breakdown

Red Wings

There was some increased hope with the rebuilding Red Wings after general manager and Red Wings legend Steve Yzerman signed some NHL veterans to help guide the team’s young core for the time being.

It hasn’t quite panned out, however, as the Wings currently sit dead last in the Central Division and 30th in the league, ahead of only the Ottawa Senators.

Offense has been the main issue. A season after ranking dead last by a country mile with 2.00 goals per game, the Wings will enter this one with just 1.93 goals per game on the season, once again the worst mark in the league.

It’s an offense that added veterans Bobby Ryan and Vladislav Namestnikob, but after a hot start Ryan has cooled off while Namestnikov has simply struggled in his new digs.

Dylan Larkin continues to lead the way with nine points in 14 games, but keep an eye on 21-year-old Filip Zadina as the 2018 first-rounder notched his first goal of the season in Tuesday’s loss to the Panthers. The kid has major offensive upside and has been placed alongside Larkin on the team’s top line in what looks like a quality duo for the Wings up front.

As bad as the offense has generally been, the team’s defense is vastly improved. Sure, they sit 23rd in overall defense with 3.29 goals against per game, but that’s already a marked improvement from their last-ranked 3.73 mark from last season.

And the peripherals are even better.

At 5v5 this season, the Red Wings rank 9th in scoring chances against/60, 3rd in high-danger chances against/60 and 7th in expected goals against/60, as per Natural Stat Trick. Their 2.30 goals against/60 at 5v5 is well above their 1.87 expected mark, so look for this Red Wings defense to improve moving forward.

That said, their 28th-ranked 70% penalty kill has done them no favors to this point.

At the time of this writing hockey betting preview, we’re not sure who tonight’s starter will be for the road side.

It could be Thomas Greiss — another veteran offseason addition — who has been mediocre so far in turning in a 2.90 GAA and .904 Sv% in his new digs. He’s coming off a 2-1 loss to the Panthers on Tuesday in which he turned aside 20 of 22 shots (.909 Sv%) in the losing effort

With Jonathan Bernier on Injured Reserve, the other option is journeyman Calvin Pickard. Pickard who has played just 54:08 this season in one relief outing, allowing two goals on 21 shots (.905 Sv%) against the high-octane Tampa Bay Lightning on February eight days ago. Pickard owns a 3.00 GAA and .905 Sv% across 108 career NHL appearances.

Predators

It’s been an uneven season so far for the Predators to be sure.

The club currently sits ahead of only these Red Wings in the Central while their 5-8-0 record and ensuring .385 points percentage places them 27th league wide.

It just hasn’t been pretty at either end of the ice. The offense has struggled to the tune of 2.31 goals per game on the season — good for 27th in the league — and their power play is also scuffling once again, sitting 22nd with a 14.3% clip.

It would appear their offense is about where it should be judging by their advanced metrics. Their 1.84 goals/60 at 5v5 this season is more or less in line with their 1.93 expected mark while they rank 21st in both scoring chances for/60 and high-danger chances for/60 at 5v5 as well.

The team’s calling card was going to be their defense with reigning Norris Trophy winner Roman Josi leading a group that also includes Ryan Ellias, Mattias Ekholm and Dante Fabbro, but they’ve struggled.

Their 3.54 goals against per game on the season ranks them 26th in the league. While their peripherals are largely in the middle of the pack, their penalty kill has absolutely destroyed them as they currently sit dead last with a 62.8% PK rate on the campaign. That figure could regress considering last season’s worst mark was the Red Wings’ 74.3% figure, but the Preds also ranked 29th in PK rate last season, so this has been a struggle for them for some time.

Like with the Wings, we’re not sure who is starting in goal for the home team in this one, but I would suggest it would be 38-year-old Pekka Rinne.

That’s because 25-year-old Juuse Saros was blasted for six goals on 30 shots (.800 Sv%) in Tuesday’s blowout loss to the Lightning. Surely he gets the night off tonight in lieu of Rinne.

Rinne has been the better of the two so far, turning in a 2.65 GAA and 909 Sv% in his five starts, but going just 2-4-0 in the process.

If for some reason Saros gets a shot at redemption tonight, he’ll carry a ghastly 3.68 GAA and .881 Sv% into this one alongside a 3-4-0 record.

Red Wings vs. Predators NHL Pick

It’s been a tough go for anyone that has backed either of these two teams this season. They’re two of the worst in the league to this point.

That said, I’m on the significant road underdogs here.

The Predators cannot be playing with much confidence at all tonight after Tuesday’s thrashing, and this is a team that’s now allowed at least four goals in five of their last six and at least five goals in three of their last six.

Sure, the Red Wings’ offense has struggled mightily, but there aren’t too many better opponents to get things turned around than these Preds at the moment.

Additionally, this Red Wings defense has actually been quite good at 5v5, as noted above. They’re well within the top 10 in key advanced metrics, only to see their PK hurt them.

At the same time, the Predators’ 5v5 defense has been about league average and their PK has been a dumpster fire. Both special teams groups in this matchup have struggled, but I like this Red Wings defense at even strength.

I would consider the Red Wings +1.5 on the puckline, but rather than lay all that juice, I’m going to increase my risk/reward picture and take the Wings on the moneyline in this one tonight.