| Teams | Runline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | +1.5 (-150) | +135 | Over 9 (-120) |
| Dodgers | -1.5 (+130) | -145 | Under 9 (+100) |
The Los Angeles Dodgers may finally have some competition in the National League West. LA has won this division in each of the last seven years, but Dave Roberts’ crew is currently sitting in just third place nearly one-third of the way into the 2020 season.
The Dodgers have dropped each of the first two games of their current series against the San Diego Padres, who are one of the league’s brightest young teams. Both San Diego and Los Angeles enter play Wednesday at 11-7 on the year, but the Padres own the tiebreaker thanks to their superior head-to-head record. Both teams are 1.5 games back of the Colorado Rockies for first place in the division.
At this point, it would be a surprise if either team failed to make the playoffs with the expanded eight-team National League postseason field. The teams are set to do battle twice more at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday and Thursday.
Wednesday’s matchup features a couple of young right-handers. The Dodgers will call up Tony Gonsolin to make his second start of the young season in this one, while the Padres will counter with Zach Davies. Vegas isn’t jumping off the Dodgers’ bandwagon yet, as Los Angeles is a sizable -145 moneyline favorite in a game with an over/under of nine runs.
Dodgers’ Quiet Bats
The Dodgers had one of baseball’s most prolific offenses in 2019, and many expected them to be even better this time around after adding Mookie Betts during the offseason. While LA has still scored the fourth-most runs of any team in baseball this season, the bats have been quieted by the Padres’ pitching in the first two games of this series.
They’re in a good bounce-back spot tonight against Davies, though. While Davies has gotten good results, he doesn’t miss many bats. The right-hander hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his first three starts of the year, but the lineup he’ll face tonight is easily the most talented he’ll have faced to this point.
Davies has a career strikeout rate of just under 17 percent, which is well below-average. He has also struggled against lefties, and the Dodgers’ offense happens to have left-handed power in spades. While Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy have both gotten off to sluggish starts, it feels like it’s only a matter of time until they wake up. The lineup gets more daunting for Davies if Corey Seager returns after missing a few games with a back issue.
Davies has had more success against right-handed hitters in his career, but he has hardly been dominant. RHBs still have a .307 wOBA at his expense, and with Betts, Justin Turner, Will Smith, and A.J. Pollock taking their hacks from the right side, it’s not an easy lineup to face one-through-nine.
Padres’ Revamped Offense
The Padres actually rank one spot higher than the Dodgers so far this season in terms of runs scored, which isn’t something we’ve said about the Padres in years. This has been one of the weakest offensive teams in baseball for years, but their run-scoring surge this season is hardly unexpected.
Fernando Tatis Jr. was one of the game’s brightest young rookies last season despite dealing with injury issues. The team has added to the offense in free agency over the past couple of years by signing big-money deals with Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado, while also adding solid bats in Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham this past winter.
Given the track record of the bats in this lineup, I don’t really expect San Diego’s offense to cool off any time soon. The starting rotation is also quietly one of the more impressive young groups on the majors, though I don’t think it’s unfair to say that Davies is one of the weaker links.
While Tony Gonsolin pitched effectively last season during his first tour of duty in the majors, he’s still pretty unproven at this level. The right-hander likely won’t pitch beyond the fifth inning at best in this game, and the Dodger bullpen is fairly taxed after Ross Stripling couldn’t get out of the fifth last night.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers MLB Pick
Any time you have two of the best offensive clubs in baseball going toe-to-toe, the over is going to look like an attractive bet. We have that tonight in Downtown Los Angeles, but MLB betting sites have the total for this game hovering around nine runs. MyBookie has more juice on the over (-120), and with good reason.
With a couple of vulnerable righties on the mound, it’s fair to expect a fair number of runs in this one. While the ineffectiveness of the Dodger bats over the past few days is cause for concern, there is simply too much talent in this lineup for them to stay dormant forever. A pitch-to-contact guy like Davies is the perfect opponent for a lefty-heavy lineup looking to break out of their collective hibernation.
The over is the bet here. I think the total will probably continue to creep north as the day progresses, so hit the over on nine runs while you still can.
$100 Could Win You…$183.30
Taylor Smith
Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu …
