Should You Place a Futures Bet on the Patriots in 2021?

For the first time since 2008, the New England Patriots missed the playoffs. And for the first time since 2000, they finished with a losing record. 

So, that means it was Brady and not Belichick, the whole time, right? Even with Brady’s Super Bowl, it’s not even close. And I’ll explain why in the first subheading. 

Also, if you think the Brady-less New England Patriots still aren’t a viable futures bet in 2021, think again. Sure, the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins look like they’re in better shape. But really, what sunk the Patriots in 2020?

COVID opt-outs and losing key defensive pieces in free agency hurt the defense. But there is a lot of good news on that front, with those who opted out in 2020 planning on playing in 2021. And with the opt-outs older in age, they’re the healthiest guys on the field in 2021. 


Let’s discuss.

Belichick Still Wins the Brady-Belichick Debate

Although Belichick’s New England Patriots finished the 2020 NFL Season at 7-9 and Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the Super Bowl, don’t make the mistake in thinking the debate’s over. 

It’s not over by a long shot. 

This is why: Bill Belichick was forced to play with backups on defense because of opt-outs and players having left in free agency. He lost Jamie Collins and Danny Shelton to the Detroit Lions. Plus, they lost Dont’a Hightower, Patrick Chung, and others because of opt-outs. 

Add in losing projected TE1 Matt LaCosse, Dan Vitale, Brandon Bolden, Marcus Cannon, and Marqise Lee, it shows just how much COVID affected the Patriots.

That, coupled with no offseason or preseason, along with a new quarterback who was out of the league and hadn’t played in over a year, left the Patriots with a borderline expansion roster. 

Let me ask you this: What if Adam Gase coached this team and Belichick coached the New York Jets?

Same roster, but imagine they swapped teams for a single season. 


Gase’s Pats would’ve been lucky to have won 4 games. Meanwhile, you could’ve made a sensible bet Belichick would’ve gotten the best out of that New York Jets team. And at the very least, would’ve had Sam Darnold operating as a mid-tier quarterback. 

Winning in New England wasn’t happening in 2020. And now with a few players who opted out in 2020 reportedly slated to return in 2021, it already provides a major boost to this team. Give them a halfway-decent quarterback and not a man on the back nine like Newton, and they’re in better shape. 

In short, don’t count out the New England Patriots and don’t believe for a single second it was Brady. Belichick proved just how good of a head coach he was in 2020 with the team he had. A bunch of backups and cast-offs. Again, think an expansion roster. 

Add in a few aging lifers like the McCourtys and Julian Edelman, and it further solidifies that claim. Speaking of Sam Darnold, don’t be surprised if he ends up in New England in 2021. And further, don’t let yourself get shocked if he looks like the QB1 the New York Jets thought they were getting. 

Dear New York Jets fans, I am so sorry about this subheading, but we both know how realistic of a scenario this is. 

The New England Patriots Defense Is Back

They slated Hightower to become the team’s leader on defense. And as mentioned, he was one of their opt-outs. Hightower already announced that he would be back, but the defense did lose safety Patrick Chung. After opting-out of last season, Chung announced earlier this month that he would be retiring for good. 

Hightower is still in the prime of his career, but losing Chung does hurt. Fortunately, the team still has plenty of quality in the secondary between Devin McCourty, Stephon Gilmore, and JC Jackson. Jalen Mills was signed away from the Eagles in free agency to help fill one of the safety spots, as well.

Gilmore is still one of the best players at his position in the entire league. Ditto for Josh Uche, a rookie they had huge plans for. Other defensive players were likely nothing more than fill-ins, so it shows you just how dire the defense was in 2020. And why they experienced such a drop-off following a 2019 season that saw them as the league’s top unit. 

With most of the defense coming back, you can expect Belichick to once again get flexible in his play calling. For one, expect him to double-team an opponent’s best receiver with a random corner and safety, leaving his best corner on the team’s second-best receiver. The team signed a pair of legitimately terrifying edge rushers in Matt Judon and Kyle Van Noy this offseason, as well.

You can expect complicated blitz packages once more, with Hightower returning and calling things out from the middle. 

Just these factors alone show you how much better off the team’s defense is with their studs returning. Oh, and they only allowed 353 points. So it wasn’t like the defense, even with the opt-outs and injuries, fell off a cliff. 

Yet another testament to Belichick’s coaching. 

Division Rivals Will Threaten the New England Patriots

Don’t think this post is telling you that the New England Patriots pose as a better futures bet than the Miami Dolphins or Buffalo Bills. They still finished 7-9, and the Dolphins and Bills won 10 and 13 games, respectively. The latter came within one game of the Super Bowl. 

The Bills went 13-3 for a reason, and they came within a single game of the Super Bowl for a reason. So it makes sense if you’re thinking Buffalo is still a safer futures bet, given recent history. It also makes sense to believe the Miami Dolphins are also safer because of their upward trend in 2020. 

Even if the Patriots return to their former selves, their Over/Under and overall future outlook, especially in the AFC East, just got a lot tougher. So before you consider betting on the New England Patriots, remember that even if Brady were still in town, their road isn’t as easy as it once was. 

One year removed from their AFC Championship appearance, the Buffalo Bills only need a few more puzzle pieces to become legitimate Super Bowl Contenders. And given the way the Miami Dolphins have flourished under Brian Flores, they too will threaten the AFC East Crown and even more. 

Expect the Patriots to enter a three-horse race for the AFC East. And that alone should tell you that for 2021, there are no truly safe futures bets in the division. Sure, you can bet on a Patriots bounce back from a mediocre 2020. They may encroach on the Over/Under. 

But that may be about it. 

New England Patriots’ Quarterback Situation Is a Factor

Cam Newton came in and fell flat on his face. Okay, so Newton wasn’t terrible. But he looked like a running back playing quarterback with his 12 rushing touchdowns as opposed to just 8 passing touchdowns. 

His statistics were very Mark Rypien-like, with just over 2,600 passing yards, 8 touchdown passes, and 10 picks, for an 82.9 passer rating. It’s true that Newton is no longer a top-tier quarterback, and his struggles showed it. 

Despite his struggles, the Patriots clearly believe Newton wasn’t the only problem with the offense last season. New England decided to re-sign Newton earlier this offseason, and the ex-NFL MVP is the frontrunner to earn the starting job once again.

While Newton is back, the Patriots still have other options. Armed with a solid draft position, they could opt to take a marquee signal-caller in April’s NFL Draft. Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, and Kyle Trask are the most likely candidates, with Fields and Jones being the most probable. 

Jones was the product of a dynamic system at Alabama. And given the attention to detail, along with similar approaches between head coaches Bill Belichick and Nick Saban, it makes a lot of sense to project Jones to the Patriots. 

There is also Trey Lance, who tossed for 28 touchdowns and 0 picks back in 2019, his last full season of college football. Coming from an FCS school, however, he must make a gigantic leap to the NFL. But Belichick is the guy who can get him there. 

Then there is Fields, who many draft analysts project to drop given his subpar last season at Ohio State. However, Belichick could bring out the best in Fields, and Fields also compares well to Cam Newton with his playing style. So, Fields would make for a logical understudy for Newton next season. He would also make sense as Newton’s ultimate successor at the position.

Regardless, you can expect a rookie to start at quarterback for the Patriots from Day One. That’s if they don’t make a trade for someone like Sam Darnold or even Alex Smith. Any of the listed names are huge upgrades. And they’ll make the Patriots a better football team in 2021.

Conclusion 

The New England Patriots will at least be a more sensible futures bet in 2021 than they were in 2020. With key players returning from COVID opt-outs, it immediately gives the franchise a boost. Even if those key players are older. 

Don’t overlook the fact that the Pats have been on a spending spree since free agency started. Belichick is trying to bring back a dynamic duo at tight end with the signings of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. They may not be able to replicate the Gronkowski/Hernandez successes of the past, but both new faces are major upgrades at the position.

Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne were solid depth signings to help the team’s ailing wide receiver corps. Newton will be working with a new batch of pass-catchers this season, which gives us reason for optimism moving forward with this offense.

Also, the Patriots will benefit well from an additional quarterback, and Bill Belichick’s system always clicks. This team had borderline expansion franchise talent in 2020 and still went 7-9. What can they do with a full slate?

It’ll be difficult with Buffalo and Miami partying like it’s the early 1990s again. It’s a three-horse race in the AFC East.

What are your thoughts? Do you believe the New England Patriots are in a better futures position in 2021? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.