Super Bowl 55: Chiefs vs Buccaneers Betting Preview and Free Pick

On Sunday, February 7th, the Kansas City Chiefs will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl 55.

The Chiefs are the visiting team and aim to repeat as the Super Bowl champs. The Bucs are the home team and look to win their 2nd ever Super Bowl.

Will the Chiefs repeat as champs or will Tom Brady and the Bucs pull off the upset? Kickoff inside Raymond James Stadium is at 6:30 PM ET.

Super Bowl 55 Odds and Betting History

Chiefs vs Bucs Super Bowl 55 Preview

The Chiefs and Buccaneers have played against each other 13 times and it’s the Bucs that hold the advantage with a 7-6 all-time record.

These two teams played against each other in in the regular season and it was the Chiefs that won on the road by the score of 27 to 24. The victory snapped a five game winning streak by the Bucs in this head to head series.

The Kansas City Chiefs (16-2) finished with the best record in the NFL and locked up the top seed in the AFC. They then stormed their way through the Playoffs including a 14 point win in the AFC Championship game. This team is firing on all cylinders and the offense looks unstoppable.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-5) earned one of the NFC’s three Wild Card spots and then went on to win three road games in the Playoffs to earn a spot in the Super Bowl. Tom Brady and the offense look like a well-oiled machine and the defense has stepped up big time in the Playoffs.

Head to Head Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in last six meetings
• Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in last six matchups
• Over/Under is 3-3 in last six contests
• Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in last five home games

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends

• 12-1 SU in last 13 games
• 10-0 SU in last 10 road games
• 6-2 SU when the spread is +3 to -3pts
• 14-1 SU as the favorite this season
• 6-1 SU in last seven Playoff games
• 4-0 SU versus NFC South this season
• 6-1 ATS when the spread is +3 to -3pts
• 6-9 ATS as a favorite this year
• 1-3 ATS versus the NFC South this year
• 5-2 ATS in last seven Playoff games
• 1-8-1 ATS in last 10 games
• Under is 4-2 in last six NFC games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends

• 7-0 SU in last seven games
• 5-2 SU in last seven AFC games
• 3-1 SU when spread is +3 to -3pts
• 4-1 ATS as an Underdog this season
• 5-2 ATS in home games this season
• 5-1 ATS in last six AFC West games
• Over is 13-7 in last 20 games

The spread opened with the Chiefs favored by 3 points with most NFL betting sites. It rose as high as 4 points before settling back down at 3 points. The Over/Under opened at 56 points, went as high as 57 points, and has settled back down at 56 total points with most online betting sites.

Free Super Bowl 55 Bet and Game Prediction: Chiefs (-163)

The Chiefs and the Bucs already played against each other this year and we saw just how good each team was. However, both teams have evolved since then especially the Buccaneers who won seven straight games after the loss in Week 12 to KC.


The following factors will play a major part in deciding which team wins Super Bowl 55:

Mahomes vs Bucs Defense

In their Week 12 matchup, Mahomes had a monster game with 462 yards, 3 TDs, a 75.5% completion percentage and an 82.9 QBR. It was his best game of the season and a performance that will certainly keep the Tampa Bay defenders up all night prior to the Super Bowl.


For the season, Mahomes averaged 316 passing yards per game. He also had 38 TDs and did this in 15 contests.

The Bucs passing defense finished the regular season 21st in pass yards allowed (246.6ypg). They played better in the Playoffs against teams like the Saints and the Packers, but this Chiefs offense is the best in the league.

You have to give the edge to Mahomes in this matchup.

Brady vs Chiefs Defense

In the Week 12 game, Brady threw for 345 yards, 3 TDs, a 65.9% completion percentage and a 72.6 QBR. He did have two interceptions as well. The Bucs were also playing from behind most of the game.

Even though the Chiefs knew that the Bucs were going to have to pass to get back into the game, Brady still found some success.

For the season, Brady finished 3rd in the league with 4,633 yards and 2nd with 40 TD passes. He will have all of his passing weapons healthy for this game including WR Antonio Brown who missed the NFC Championship game.

The Chiefs defense allowed 236.2 passing ypg which was 14th in the league. In the AFC title game, they gave up nearly 300 passing yards to the Bills.

I see Brady and this passing offense having success against the Chiefs secondary. However, the offensive line is going to have to be consistent with picking up the blitzes as KC is very creative with sending extra defenders after opposing quarterbacks.

X-Factor: Buccaneers Running Game

The Achilles heel for the Chiefs defense this year was their run defense as they allowed 122.1ypg which was 21st in the league. They gave up over 110 rushing yards to the Browns in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs as well.

In the Week 12 matchup, the Bucs only rushed for 75 yards. But, they were down 17 to 0 after the first quarter and had to throw their way back into the game.

Typically, Tampa Bay didn’t rely a lot on their ground game throughout the season to win football games, but it was still a vital component to their success.

Ronald Jones is the lead back for the Bucs and he finished the season with 978 yards, 7 TDs, and a 5.1 ypc average. Those were good numbers considering he missed a few games. He had 66 yards against the Chiefs and a receiving touchdown.

Leonard Fournette is the other running back and he’s a big threat to catch passes out of the backfield.

In addition to being more balanced, the Bucs need to establish a running game in order for their play action passing attack to be successful. Furthermore, a ground game will help to chew up the clock and keep Mahomes on the sidelines.

And the Super Bowl Winner Is…

The Kansas City Chiefs will win Super Bowl 55 as they’re just too good on offense for the Buccaneers to stop. They have too many weapons for Mahomes to slice and dice up any defense including the most explosive receiver in Tyreek Hill and the best tight end in Travis Kelce.


The reason I’m not taking the Chiefs to cover 3 points is that I actually believe they will win by a FG, which makes the bet a push. The safest play for SB 55 is to take the Chiefs to win outright.

Mahomes is 6-1 in postseason games and has an incredible ration of 17 TDs to just 2 INTs. He also has 2,054 passing yards, 173 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs.

Brady might be “The Goat,” but Mahomes is the best player in the NFL and he will end up being the reason why the Chiefs win a second straight Super Bowl.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Betting Recap:

• Oddsmaker: BetOnline
• Moneylines: Chiefs (-163) vs Bucs (+143)
• Spread: Chiefs -3 (-115)
• Over/Under: 56 total points (-110)
• Prediction: Chiefs 31 – Buccaneers 28