It’s a busy schedule today in Major League Baseball as 16 games hit the docket as the A’s and Twins’ double-header accounts for the additional game over the maximum 15.
So, let’s get in on the baseball betting action and check out this Rangers vs Angels MLB Pick from Los Angeles!
Rangers vs Angels Betting Odds
| Odds | Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Angels/th> |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline Odds | +165 | -185 |
| Runline Odds | +1.5 (-120) | -1.5 (+100) |
| Over/Under Odds | Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (-120) |
Rangers vs Angels MLB Pick Breakdown
Rangers
The Rangers began this three-game set in Los Angeles with a 6-4 win last night, handing Angels ace Dylan Bundy the loss in the process.
The win was the second straight for a Rangers team that entered the season with very little expectations but they’ve managed to hang around at 8-9 at the moment.
Looking to make it three wins in a row for the road side is Jordan Lyles as the 30-year-old right-hander looks to shake off some tough results so far here in 2021.
He hasn’t been disastrous, but a 4.70 ERA/5.57 FIP with another 4.70 xERA suggests he hasn’t been all too good, either. The home run ball has been an issue with four homers allowed in just 15.1 innings of work so far, good for a 2.35 HR/9. That’s obviously an elevated number, but home runs have been an issue in each of the past two seasons as well as he posted a 1.60 HR/9 in 2019 before increasing that rate to 1.87 in the shortened 2020 season.
There’s a chance Lyles could regress even more given the huge 53.3% fly-ball rate and big 51.1% hard-hit rate against so far in the small sample here in 2021.
Inconsistent Sticks
While their six runs from last night’s contest is more like it, the Rangers’ bats have been extremely inconsistent this season and they’ve indeed been one of the weakest offenses in baseball, mostly as expected.
They’ll enter this one ranked 27th with a .287 wOBA as a team while their 28.6% K-rate on the season is the worst mark in baseball. Texas has also hit for very little power with a .126 ISO that checks them in at 29th league wide.
Nate Lowe has cooled off dramatically from his white-hot start to the season and Joey Gallo has just one homer and a tiny .061 ISO through 16 games. Nick Solak has been the team’s best all-round hitter so far this season with a 141 wRC+ while his 0.6 fWAR so far leads the ball club.
Prior to last night’s effort, the Rangers had scored just four runs across a three-game stretch while they’ve averaged just 3.3 runs per game over their last 10.
Battered Bullpen
The Rangers were already dealing with poor injury luck throughout their bullpen prior to the season, most notably losing closer Jose Leclerc for the season due to Tommy John surgery. They’ve since lost Jonathan Hernandez due to the same season-ending elbow surgery while right-hander Matt Bush is out long-term as well with an arm injury.
The results have been predictably poor. The Rangers enter this one ranked 28th with a 5.34 bullpen ERA as their 29th-ranked 1.69 HR/9 clip is a big reason why. Their 4.56 FIP ranks 24th as well and while their 3.79 xFIP checks in at seventh, that’s more of a reflection of an elevated HR/FB rate of 19.4%, good for the second-highest mark in baseball.
You could point to some positive regression on the long ball, but they’re still allowing 40.7% hard contact and are tied for dead last with a 91.5 mph average exit velocity against.
It’s simply a battered group to begin with and now one that is without much in terms of consistency or reliability as it could be a long season for the group.
Angels
The Angels have cooled off a little bit following a red-hot start to the season as they’ve dropped three of their last four including last night’s series-opening loss to these Rangers.
Their offense is a quality one on the whole, but also one that has dealt with their own inconsistencies. They’ve scored 10 runs in two of their last five games, but also averaged just 2.33 runs per game in their other three contests in that time.
That said, for the season, the Angels’ bats rank fifth with a .327 wOBA and also fifth with that identical .327 wOBA against right-handed pitching such as Lyles. Now, they haven’t hit for a ton of power off righties with just a .144 ISO on the season against them, but rank second with a .270 average off them to go along with a fifth-ranked 22.2% K-rate against them. Simply put, they’re a tough out.
That said, while Anthony Rendon sits on the IL with a groin ailment at the moment, they’ll also be without the righty-mashing Shohei Ohtani as get won’t hit while starting this one tonight for the Angels.
Indeed, Ohtani makes his just his second start of the season for the Angels in this one after missing time with a blister. He was excellent in his lone start of the season against the White Sox back on April 4, hurling 4.2 innings of one-run ball to go along with seven strikeouts. His five walks are something of a concern, but he didn’t allow a single barrel against a potent Chicago offense in that one.
Ohtani is expected to be limited to about 75 pitches in his first start in more than two weeks, but he’s been excellent on the mound when healthy. He worked to a 3.31 ERA/3.57 FIP in his rookie 2018 season and despite getting torched in just 1.2 innings in 2020, he’s off to a fine start here in 2021 as he looks for increased health fortunes moving forward.
Identical Fortunes
Speaking of fortunes, the Angels’ bullpen was on the wrong side of the luck spectrum during the small sample size that was the shortened 2020 season.
The Angels ranked 21st with a 4.63 ERA last season, but also 12th with a quality 4.17 FIP. They deserved a better fortune last season, and seemingly do here again in 2021.
The Angels’ bullpen enters this one with a 11th-ranked 3.76 ERA, and while that’s a marked improvement, they also sit fifth with a 3.22 FIP and sixth with a 3.68 xFIP. They do sit 19th with a 38.9% Statcast hard-hit rate against, but the Angels’ seventh-ranked 3.55 bullpen SIERA tells us that they are indeed well within the top 10 bullpens this season despite their ERA sitting just outside of that group.
Home runs have bitten newcoming closer Raisel Iglesias, but he owns a 2.43 xERA and 1.71 xFIP on the season along with a monstrous 18.56 K/9 against an excellent 1.69 BB/9. Junior Guerra has yet to yield an earned run in his seven innings of work while Mike Mayers, Aaron Siegers, Steve Cishek, Alex Claudio and Chris Rodriguez all sport ERA figures of 3.86 or better while all but Siegers are at 3.38 or better.
The Angels’ bullpen has cost them in the past, but the results this season have been far more encouraging as they hunt down an AL West title.
Rangers vs Angels MLB Pick
Missing both Rendon and Ohtani is certainly detrimental to the Angels’ offensive capabilities, but they’re going to win this one on pitching as I see a huge advantage both with the starters and bullpen. Not to be too harsh on Lyles, but he’s long been mediocre and has significant home run problems of late. None of his metrics are any good and he doesn’t get deep into ball games.
Pick: Angels -1.5
Odds: +100
$100 Could Win You…$200
That will expose this weak and bruised Rangers bullpen. Ohtani also won’t go deep here, so it’s likely to be a battle of the bullpens in this one, and the Angels simply have a sizeable advantage in that department. Even without two star bats, the Angels also win the offensive comparison here as well.
Add it up and I’ll roll the dice here and grab the Angels +100 on the run line tonight. For additional MLB betting value check out our Braves at Yankees pick while the odds are still available!
James Peralta
As a recent addition to the GamblingSites.org team, James Peralta has been covering everything about casinos, sports, and laws that are specific to online gambling in Canada. James started writing about sports in 2007 during his first year at U of T Mississauga. …
