The Best Bets for Week 8 of the 2020 NFL Season

The trend of Unders hitting continued in Week 7 as they went 7-6-1 for the week. That brings the season total to 54-50-1 in favor of the Over. However, the Unders have gone 17-10-1 over the last two weeks, which is a stark change from the high scoring games through the first month of the season.

The Favorites had another rough week as they went 5-8-1 ATS, which brings their season total to 49-53-1 on the season. Home teams had an unimpressive week as they went 7-6-1 ATS. In particular, home Favorites went 3-3-1, while home Underdogs went 4-3 ATS.

Let’s huddle up and take a look at the best bets for Week 8 of the 2020 NFL season. Betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline.

Quick Recap of Week 7’s Best Bets

In Week 7, we almost went undefeated with a 3-1 record on the following NFL wagers:

• Packers Beat Texans by More Than a FG
• Patriots Beat the 49ers
• Steelers Remain Undefeated
• Brady and the Bucs Win in Vegas

The lone loss in Week 7 was the New England Patriots at home against the 49ers. Not only did I feel that New England wouldn’t lose a third game in a row, I never once imagined they would get destroyed by the score of 33 to 6. This team is going nowhere fast.

The Steelers covered our pick by defeating the Titans 27 to 24. The Packers made me look like a genius when I said they would score at least 30 points and put up 400 yards. They won 35 to 20 and put up 376 total yards. Lastly, Tampa Bay manhandled the Las Vegas Raiders by a score of 45 to 20.

With a strong Week 7 in the books, we’ve now improved our season total to 18-8 heading into Week 8.

Colts Win by More Than a FG vs Detroit

• Indianapolis -2.5 (-120)

I give the Detroit Lions credit for winning two straight games and saving Matt Patricia’s job for now, but they’re playing against a rested and rugged Indianapolis Colts team that’s coming off a Bye Week and looking to keep pace with the Titans atop the NFC South standings.

Indy has one of the top defenses in the league as they allow just 19.2ppg, 301.8 total ypg, 213.5 passing ypg, and 88.3 rushing ypg. These numbers are all well below what Detroit is averaging on offense.

Furthermore, the Colts are 4-1 SU in their last five meetings against the Lions, 5-1 SU in their last six games at Detroit, and 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the NFC North division. Detroit is 0-6 SU in their last six home games, 3-12 SU in their last 15 games, and 1-8 SU in their last nine November games.

I like Indy to run all over this Lions defense that’s giving up 131.8 rushing ypg. Furthermore, I expect this Colts defense to wreak havoc on the Lions offensive line and QB Matt Stafford all game long.

The Colts should win by at least a FG as they’ve also gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine NFC games.

Vikings vs Packers Goes Over 53 Total Points

• Over 52.5 (-110)

This bet flies in the face of recent Over/Under betting trends for both teams, but it’s very indicative of where the Packers and Minnesota Vikings are at in 2020.

For starters, these two played in Week 1 of the season and they combined for 77 total points as Green Bay won 43 to 34. Other than the game at Tampa Bay, the Packers haven’t slowed down at all on offense.

For the season, they’re averaging 32.8ppg while the Vikings are giving up 32ppg. Additionally, the Vikings are averaging 25.8ppg on offense while the Packers give up 26.5ppg. That’s a combined total of 58.6ppg scored and 58.5ppg allowed.

Sunday’s #Vikings–#Packers game at Lambeau Field doesn’t look like much of a matchup. But Pro Football Focus sure likes the receivers in this game. @markcraignfl takes a look https://t.co/jRSJOnXFT5

— Star Tribune Sports (@StribSports) October 27, 2020

In their five losses, Minnesota has given up a total of 169 points which is an average of 33.8ppg in defeat. The Packers have scored 187 total points in their wins which is an average of 37.4ppg.

When Green Bay plays against bad defenses like Minnesota, Houston, Atlanta, and Detroit they’ve scored over 30 points in all four contests. In Green Bay’s two home games, they’ve averaged 31ppg. In Minnesota’s three away games, they’ve allowed 28.6ppg.

Any way you look at this matchup, these two teams should combined for over 53 points. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see them cross the 60 point threshold again.

Steelers Cover at Baltimore

• Pittsburgh +3.5 (-102)

This is going to be the best game of Week 8. It features two bitter rivals with Pittsburgh as the last unbeaten team in the league. The Ravens would love to be the first team to defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers this season.

With that said, I am really surprised that Pittsburgh is a 3.5 point underdog. They feature arguably the best defense in the NFL as they can not only get after the QB, but they can also stop the run as they allow just 68.8 rushing ypg.

Baltimore is a run first team that sits near the top the league at 164.3 rushing ypg. It will be a slugfest between these two units.

On the flip side, Baltimore also has a top notch defense that allows just 17.3ppg, while the Steelers are scoring 30.5ppg. Pittsburgh has a balanced attack on offense which makes them dangerous as they don’t have any significant weaknesses.

One key component to winning this game will be which team picks up the blitz the best. Both defenses like to attack opposing offense with creative blitzes. I give the edge to “Blitzburgh” in this aspect.

In their last 10 head to head meetings, Pittsburgh has averaged 21.7ppg and the Ravens have averaged 23.4ppg.

In the last three seasons, Baltimore is 1-2 ATS following a bye week, 3-4 ATS when a home favorite of 3.5 to 7pts, 14-15 ATS as a favorite, 9-12 ATS at home, and 6-7 ATS versus divisional foes.

The Steelers are 9-2 ATS as an underdog, 4-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5pts, 8-4 ATS versus winning teams, and 9-1 ATS in Weeks 5 through 9.

Seattle Beats the 49ers by More Than a FG

• Seahawks -3 (-101)

In the co-main event of Week 8, the San Francisco 49ers head to Seattle to take on the NFC West leading Seattle Seahawks.

San Francisco is team riddled with injuries, which makes it even more impressive that they’re 4-3 on the year. Seattle is 5-1 and just suffered their first loss on the season in overtime to the Arizona Cardinals last weekend.

This week’s matchup will come down to whether or not the 49ers can slow down Seattle’s offense enough to outscore them in the end. In other words, the 49ers are hoping to duplicate what Arizona just pulled off.

“It happens a lot more with the Seahawks than it does everyone else.”

The 49ers are preparing for another “weird ending” on Sunday (via @MaioccoNBCS)https://t.co/1Od9pUuQEH pic.twitter.com/gZ6tKKK8yf

— 49ers on NBCS (@NBCS49ers) October 28, 2020

Unfortunately for 49ers fans, I don’t see that happening. This team doesn’t have the firepower on offense to hang with Seattle as they just placed Deebo Samuel on IR. As it stands, I just don’t see how the 49ers can keep up the scoring pace with a Seattle team that averages 33.8ppg.

In the last 10 meetings, Seattle is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS. They’ve scored 26.1ppg and the 49ers have scored 17.1ppg. San Francisco is 4-14 ATS in their last 18 trips to Seattle and 2-11 SU in their last 13.

Seattle is 11-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six November games.

Russell Wilson and this offense will be cooking on Sunday and I expect the Seahawks to beat up on a depleted 49ers team as they win by a touchdown or more.