The Pros and Cons About Betting on Your Favorite NFL Team

It’s not a bad idea to bet on your favorite NFL team if you learn how to reign in a few pitfalls.

Rolling your eyes?

Think about it for a minute.

No one knows your team better than you and others in your team’s fan base. You also know their tendencies better than you will the other 31 teams, their players, and chances are you’ll have scouted the strengths and weaknesses of your favorite team’s 13 opponents (14 in 2021).

However, cons exist.

You must watch for potential pitfalls. For one, you can overrate your team and forget about their overall strengths and weaknesses. You can also concoct unrealistic scenarios for your team if you engage in future-based bets.

You can also overrate your favorite team’s players and it’s not uncommon to underrate the opponents.

Read on for an in-depth overview of 4 pros and 4 cons of betting on your favorite NFL team.

Pro: You Know Your Team’s Tendencies

You know your team’s tendencies better than the other 31 teams. You know your team’s identity, their style of play, what they like to do in specific situations, and how often they succeed.

For example, say you follow the Arizona Cardinals.

What do we know about the Cardinals from 2020?

We know they love to run the ball with a two-back tandem, use a dual-threat quarterback, and use the run to open the pass. They also have an aggressive mentality, as head coach slash offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury loves to go for it virtually anywhere on the field. And the Cards often convert.

They’re also a blitz-happy defense who can rack up the sacks with a committee of pass rushers and physical players. We know that if they win, it’s because the front seven got a push on their opponents’ offensive line.

You can make the same quick-hits with your own team and in the world of betting, it may provide an edge.

Con: You Will Overrate Your Team

For one, if your team has a strange quarterback situation, steer clear. It’s so easy to overrate your team’s quarterbacks. Let’s look at the Washington Football Team, who at the time of this writing are a pretty good football team sitting at 6-9.

They’d probably find themselves with a better record if they had a decent yet unspectacular quarterback like Kirk Cousins or Baker Mayfield.

Instead, they had to spend 2020 watching the merry-go-round of Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, and Alex Smith. Of course, if you support Washington, chances are you’re looking to justify this trio’s limited upside and downplay their blatant downside.

So be careful if your favorite team’s quarterback situation isn’t ideal and never overrate a weak unit.

Washington waived QB Dwayne Haskins.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 28, 2020

The quarterback situation in Washington is one of many examples we can point to in 2020. Let’s look at a few others.

If your team’s defense lacks talent, you can see too much of the good in otherwise mediocre units whose players may not start on more than a handful of NFL teams.

Your team’s offense could be the weak link. But because they have strong receivers, you think any quarterback could line up under center and complete passes with them. You may feel they’ll pick up the slack for the lack of running game and mediocre passers.

Pro: You Know Your Team’s Talents

While you may overrate your team’s units, you also know their talents. Let’s look at the Cardinals again, whose offense can score on anyone when they use the run to set up the pass. We know that when they play to their strengths, which includes a lot of running from Kyler Murray, they almost always win.

They also win often when their pass rush makes life easy for their meager defensive backfield. At least this was the case in 2020.

You can make the same comparisons for your own favorite teams. You know what wins them games, and you know what will lose them games.

You know that if their running back rushes for 85 or more yards in a game, they often win. Ditto if their quarterback throws for 230 or more yards per game. Or, if you follow a defensive-minded team, you know if they land 3 sacks per game, they’re likely to win.

You know if their defense controls most of the contest by allowing 3 or fewer touchdowns, they’re also likely to win.

Con: You Will Likely Concoct Dream Scenarios for Your Team

Let’s look at the Cardinals again. We can overrate their entire offense, believing because they have a stud quarterback in Kyler Murray means they can convert on anyone.

But if you watched the Cardinals over 2020, this isn’t the case. We know they struggle when they revert to a dink-and-dunk game. When Kyler Murray played through an AC sprain, to better protect him, they stopped letting him run and went with a horizontal passing game.

The Cardinals ended up on a 3-game losing streak.

The dream scenario in this example regarding the Cardinals is simple: their offense reverts from first to worst when they don’t let Kyler cook. He’s a great passer, but he’s a dual-threat quarterback. And when you take that away from him, defenses can settle in and forget about his running ability.

Pro: You Know Your Team’s Players

Let’s revert from overall units and talents to individual players. One reason it’s so easy to bet on your favorite team, especially if you’re a die-hard fan, is because you probably know the strengths and weaknesses of every starter.

Let’s go to the Cleveland Browns, who have arguably the best one-two running back tandem in football. You know Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will pace the offense. And you also know Myles Garrett is one of the best pass rushers in football, if not the best.

You also know they have a blue-chip corner in Denzel Ward, and you also know they have a sure-handed receiver in Odell Beckham and one of the best game managers in Baker Mayfield.

But you also know linebackers Malcolm Smith, Mack Wilson, and B.J. Goodson are weak. You know the CB2 spot is a roller coaster, and safeties Karl Joseph and Andrew Sendejo are stopgaps.

And while you know their players and it can lead to a solid pro, it can also lead to an inexcusable con. Keep reading to find out.

Con: You Will Overrate Your Team’s Players

The Washington Football Team example from Section 2 epitomizes this. You have a surefire bust in Dwayne Haskins who started the season and was predictably ineffective. You had a career backup in Kyle Allen step in for him, only to injure himself. They turned to Alex Smith, who didn’t start a game in 2 seasons.

Washington is just one example where you can overrate a player’s talents at multiple positions; not just quarterback. And this often occurs with weaker players.

You see it mainly with quarterback, but it can be anywhere. If Myles Garrett goes down like he did with an indefinite suspension in 2019, it’s easy to believe the backup may put up at least decent numbers. Even if they’ve done nothing to prove otherwise.

But since your team has a capable pass rusher on the other side, it can easily lead you to believe Garrett’s replacement can somewhat pick up where he left off.

Pro: You Know Your Team’s Opponents

You know who your team is playing, and at least on paper, whether your team has an advantage or a disadvantage heading into the season if you’re betting on future-based bets. If you’re betting on single games, you still have a general idea whether your team will win or lose during the week.

Unforeseen circumstances like injuries will change things if you’re betting on single games or player props. But you can make a fairly accurate projection whether your team will finish 10-6 or 6-10 based on their schedule.

Chances are, you will spend an extended period studying your favorite team’s 13 opponents (16 overall, playing intra-divisional opponents twice). And if you’re betting on single games, chances are you will scout your favorite team’s opponent like crazy as it is, so why not bet?

Con: You May Underrate Your Team’s Opponents

It’s easy to underrate your favorite team’s opponents. Especially if they’re having a good season or if experts projected them to struggle and are one of the dark horse or surprise teams.

You think they can beat anyone, and the talented opponents on their schedule were either given games by their opponents, played a weak schedule, had a few calls go their way, or that your team’s unit can overpower their team’s most talented unit.

Worse yet, if your team is on a hot streak and they’re 5-3 at mid-season playing a talented team who started off 5-0 and lost 2 of their last 3 games, it’s easy to devalue the opponent. Especially if the opponent owns a talented roster and hit a skid.

Always act like your team’s opponents are at full-strength and never devalue them. Even if they hit a rough patch.

Conclusion

There are a few reasons betting on your favorite team is a good idea and just as many as to why it’s a bad idea.

So should you bet on your favorite team?

Your perception of reality matters. If you can refrain from overrating your favorite team’s units and justify ways they can win most of their games, along with refraining from undervaluing their opponents, it’s a good idea.

If you think your team is unstoppable and you think they can beat anyone regardless of the situation, it’s best to steer clear.

Do you bet on your favorite NFL team often?

If so, let us know in the comments.