UCLA vs Gonzaga Final Four Prediction

The second of tonight’s two Final Four matchups features one team everyone expected to be here and another team absolutely nobody expected to be here. Gonzaga, the lone unbeaten team in the nation and consensus No. 1, will take on UCLA. The Bruins, who entered the Midwest Region as the No. 11 seed after winning the play-in game over Michigan State, have enjoyed one of the most unexpected runs we’ve seen over the past decade to reach the Final Four.

Moneyline Betting Odds: UCLA vs Gonzaga

• Gonzaga (-1150)
• UCLA (+725)

Spread Betting Odds: UCLA vs Gonzaga

• Gonzaga -14 (-115)
• UCLA +14 (-105)

Over/Under Betting Odds: UCLA vs Gonzaga

• Over 145.5 (-110)
• Under 145.5 (-110)

UCLA has been an underdog in four of their five NCAA Tournament games to this point, but it hasn’t mattered. The Bruins have been slaying dragons on their way to yet another appearance in the Final Four. UCLA has beaten legitimate blue bloods in Michigan State and Michigan in addition to wins over BYU, Abilene Christian, and Alabama.

Nobody is surprised to see Gonzaga here, of course. The Zags breezed their way to another West Coast Conference title, and they’ve been the top-ranked team in the country for months. Gonzaga has gone from being a nice Cinderella story to a legitimate basketball juggernaut over the past few years, but the program is still looking to win the national title for the first time ever. They will never have a better chance than they do in 2021.

Oddsmakers have been doubting UCLA all along, and that’s the case again on Saturday. The Bruins are massive 14-point underdogs to Gonzaga in a game with a 145.5 over/under. Gonzaga is also an incredible -1150 favorite to win the game straight-up on the moneyline.

Juzang Leads the Bruins

Johnny Juzang has dealt with ankle troubles over the course of the Bruins’ run, but he is clearly their most important player. Michigan had no answer for the 6’6″ sophomore in the Elite Eight, as he contributed 28 points on blistering 58 percent shooting from the field in 38 minutes of action. He likely would’ve played all 40 minutes if he hadn’t reaggravated his sprained ankle at one point midway through the second half.

Juzang (15.5 points per game) was the Bruins’ leading scorer during the regular season, so it’s safe to assume he will be Gonzaga’s primary focal point defensively. Juzang has scored at least 23 points in three of UCLA’s five tournament games thus far. No team has succeeded in slowing him down to this point, which has helped propel UCLA this far.

The Bruins have gotten solid contributions from Tyger Campbell, Cody Riley, and Jaime Jaquez Jr., but Juzang will have to be lights-out again if UCLA is going to do the unthinkable and actually win this game. The Bruins finished just 22-9 during the regular season and snuck into the tourney as a First Four team. To say nobody saw this kind of run coming would be quite an understatement.

Gonzaga’s Loaded Roster

While Juzang has become a one-man show for UCLA, the opposite is true of Gonzaga. Mark Few has a stacked roster at his disposal. That means the team has more than enough ammunition to overcome the possibility that one of their stars has a subpar game.

The Zags rely heavily on Drew Timme, Corey Kispert, and Jalen Suggs to shoulder the load. Timme is in the mix for Most Outstanding Player in this tournament, as he’s averaging 21.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game thus far. The Texas native scored 23 points in the Zags’ demolition of USC in the last game, which is impressive considering USC and Evan Mobley were one of the best defensive teams in the nation during the season.

Jalen Suggs, who has struggled at times in the tourney, bounced back with 18 points on 7-11 shooting along with 10 rebounds, and eight assists in a dominant all-around effort against the Trojans. Not to be outdone, Kispert supplied 18 points of his own as the Bulldogs shot 50 percent from the field. Gonzaga also dominated the rebounding battle by a 41-29 margin.

Gonzaga is the No. 1 offensive team and the No. 3 defensive team in the country. This team hasn’t won a game by less than 10 points since December 2. At no point during the past few months has Gonzaga looked like anything other than the clear-cut best team in the country.

What’s the Best Bet?

Picking against UCLA has burned me repeatedly over the course of the tournament, but I’m surely not alone in that regard. While the Bruins have been a fun team to follow, it’s almost impossible to imagine the team slaying this dragon on Saturday night. Gonzaga is the most talented and well-rounded team in the country, and they’re clearly being noticed at online sportsbooks in the US.

14 points is a huge spread, especially in a Final Four game, but it’s justified. The last team to keep Gonzaga within 10 points was West Virginia over five months ago. UCLA’s improved defense may keep the score from getting too out of hand, but I just don’t see how you pick against the Bulldogs given the way they have played all year long.

Gonzaga has covered a 33-point spread already in this tournament. Two touchdowns is a lot, but I think they get the job done. Bet Gonzaga to cover and advance to the title game for the second time in the last five years.