UFC Fight Night 184: Overeem vs Volkov Betting Preview and Predictions

On Saturday, February 6^th, the UFC returns to their Apex Center for UFC Fight Night 184: Overeem vs Volkov also known as UFC Vegas 18.

The main event fight of the night is a Top 6 ranked heavyweight battle between Alistair Overeem and Alexander Volkov. The co-featured bout is a bantamweight contest between #2 ranked Cory Sandhagen and Frankie Edgar.

Other notable names on the main card include Alexandre Pantoja, Cody Stamann, Diego Ferreira vs Beniel Dariush, and Marion Reneau vs Macy Chiasson.

In total, the main card for UFC Fight Night 184 has six fights that will stream live on ESPN+ beginning at 8PM ET.

Online sports betting sites have released their odds for the main card of UFC Fight Night 184. Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine these odds, identify any betting value, and force the predictions to tap out.

Carlos Ferreira vs Beneil Dariush

• Carlos Ferreira (-120)
• Beneil Dariush (+100)
• Over (-135)/Under (+105) 2.5 rounds

Out of all the fights for UFC Fight Night 184, even the preliminary card, this Top 13 ranked lightweight bout has the closest odds. This is also a rematch as they first fought in October 2014 where Dariush won via unanimous decision.

The 13^th ranked Dariush is on a five fight win streak and last fought in August where he beat Scott Holtzman via 1^st round KO. Four of those five wins have come via stoppage.

13 of his 19 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of submission. He’s 6-0-1 when going the distance.

Ferreira has won six straight fights since dropping the only two losses of his career. One being to Dariush and the second being to Dustin Poirier. He last fought one year ago and beat Anthony Pettis via 2^nd round submission.

10 of his 17 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of submission. He’s 7-1 when going the distance.

This bout is going to steal the show. You can expect there to be fireworks for as long as the fight will last.

The value for this fight is with each man’s moneyline. For me, I am leaning towards Dariush to win this bout. He’s the better striker with more power and has a black belt in BJJ which means he shouldn’t be in any trouble on the mat.

The challenge for this bout is picking how and when it will end. I can see it going the distance just as much as I can see it ending via stoppage.

With that said, these two men have 23 combined finishes, so I am taking this bout to end inside the distance (-115).

I see Dariush getting the TKO in the late 3^rd round. His striking has really evolved to make him a more dangerous fighter.

Cody Stamann vs Askar Askar

• Cody Stamann (-380)
• Askar Askar (+315)
• Over (-250)/Under (+190) 2.5 rounds

Andre Ewell was originally set to take on Cody Stamann, but he was removed from the card due to a positive covid test. Askar Askar will take the fight on less than one week’s notice.

Additionally, this is Askar’s UFC debut and he draws the 13^th ranked featherweight in Stamann. Askar suffered his first pro loss one year ago via 1^st round KO.

He last competed in October where he won via unanimous decision against Kevin Wirth in the LFA promotion.

Six of his 11 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. He’s 5-0 when going the distance.

Stamann is looking to bounce back after suffering a decision loss last July. He’s 5-2-1 inside the octagon and went 1-1 last year.

Eight of his 19 pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of TKO/KO. He’s 11-2-1 when going the distance.

Stamann is clearly the better fighter between the two which is obvious by his large betting odds. I like Cody to grind out the win via decision like he typically does. 14 of his 22 pro bouts have gone the distance.

Take the Over 2.5 rounds (-250) and for the fight to go the full 15 minutes (-210). Stamann will get the win and make another run at the Top 10 rankings.

Alexandre Pantoja vs Manel Kape

• Alexandre Pantoja (-130)
• Manel Kape (+110)
• Over (-160)/Under (+140) 1.5 rounds

Manel Kape is the slight underdog as he makes his UFC debut. Kape has won four of his last fight fights including three in a row. He’s been with Rizin since 2017.

14 of his 15 pro wins have come via stoppage with nine by way of TKO/KO. He’s 1-2 when going the distance.

Pantoja is the 5^th ranked flyweight coming off a loss to Askar Askarov last July. He also lost against Figueiredo in July 2017. Pantoja is 6-3 inside the octagon.

16 of his 22 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight victories apiece for TKO/KO and submission. He’s 6-5 when going the distance. Pantoja has never been stopped in a fight.

Kape has potential as he is a solid striker, but Pantoja has fought a higher level of competition and has fared well in those bouts. Plus he’s the better grappler between the two.

I am taking Pantoja to win this fight via decision. It should be an entertaining one as both men are talented.

I like the Over 1.5 rounds (-160) and for the fight to go the distance (+150) although it’s more of a gut feeling than confidence. The value is with each man’s moneyline.

Marion Reneau vs Macy Chiasson

• Marion Reneau (+175)
• Macy Chiasson (-210)
• Over (-190)/Under (+165) 2.5 rounds

This is a Top 11 women’s bantamweight contest and the only women’s fight on the main card.

The 43 yard old Reneau is ranked 9^th in the division, but enters this bout on a three fight losing streak. She last fought in June 2020 and lost via decision to Raquel Pennington. All three of those losses were via decision.

Eight of her nine pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. She’s 1-1-6 when going the distance and has never suffered a defeat via TKO/KO or submission.

The 11^th ranked Chiasson is 4-1 in the UFC with her lone loss coming to Lina Lansberg via decision in September 2019. Her last fight came one year ago and she beat Shanna Young via unanimous decision.

Four of her six pro wins have come via stoppage with two victories each for submission and TKO/KO. She’s 2-1 when going the distance and has also never been stopped in her career.

Chiasson is 14 years younger than Reneau and looks like she’s on the rise whereas Reneau’s best days are behind her. I see Chiasson outworking Reneau in this bout and picking up the decision victory (+130).

Go with the Over 2.5 rounds (-190) and for the fight to go the full 15 minutes (-165) as neither woman has been stopped in their respective careers. The value is with Chiasson’s decision odds at +130.

Cory Sandhagen vs Frankie Edgar

• Cory Sandhagen (-400)
• Frankie Edgar (+325)
• Over (-210)/Under (+175) 2.5 rounds

At 39 years old, Edgar’s days near the top of a division are winding down. Yet, due to his skills and overall cardio, he’s still highly competitive.

Edgar is 2-3 in his last five fights, but did pick up a big win last August when he beat Pedro Munhoz via split decision after dropping down to bantamweight.

11 of his 24 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of TKO/KO. He’s 13-6-1 when going the distance.

Cory Sandhagen is the #2 ranked bantamweight and climbing back into title contention after his loss to Sterling last June. He bounced back from that loss by defeating Marlon Moraes last October via 2^nd round TKO.

Eight of his 13 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. He’s 5-1 when going the distance.

It’s hard not to root for Frankie Edgar because he’s been such a pro during his UFC career and a lot of fun to watch. But, he’s now going up against a guy who has too big of a height and reach advantage. Furthermore, Sandhagen has the cardio to match Edgar’s pace and output.

I expect Sandhagen to use his length all fight long and win the rounds due to a larger volume of striking. However, I see this bout going the distance (-155) and Over 2.5 rounds (-210).

Edgar has only been stopped twice in his career and I just don’t see Sandhagen having the power to KO Frankie in this bout.

Sandhagen winning via decision (+120) offers the best value for this co-main event.

Alistair Overeem vs Alexander Volkov

• Alistair Overeem (+160)
• Alexander Volkov (-185)
• Over (-115)/Under (-105) 2.5 rounds

The main event of the evening is a Top 6 heavyweight battle between two men looking to get into the title picture.

Overeem is ranked 5^th in the division and still highly competitive at the age of 40. He’s 4-1 in his last five fights including two wins in a row where he beat Walt Harris last May and Augusto Sakai last September. A win this weekend could put Overeem back into the title scene which would be impressive.

42 of his 47 pro wins have come via stoppage with 25 by way of TKO/KO. He’s 5-3 when going the distance. 14 of his 18 losses have come via TKO/KO.

The 6^th ranked Volkov is 6-2 since joining the UFC four years ago. His losses were to Derrick Lewis and most recently Curtis Blaydes last June. He beat Walt Harris via 2^nd round TKO last October.

24 of his 32 pro wins have come via stoppage with 21 by way of TKO/KO. He’s 8-4 when going the distance and has been stopped four times in his career.

This fight is tough in regards to picking a winner. Both men have a good chance at winning this bout. For Volkov, he needs to fight from a distance and chop down his opponent. For Overeem, he needs to pressure, close the distance and get the fight to the mat.

I see this bout going Over 2.5 rounds (-115) and I actually feel that it’s the best bet for this heavyweight contest. I don’t see the fight going the distance (-245).

I’ve been more impressed with what Overeem has done the last few years than Volkov. I see more paths to victory for Overeem than Volkov as well.

Take “The Demolition Man” to score a late round stoppage most likely via TKO. He will eventually turn the tide of the fight after getting a few takedowns.