UFC on ESPN 15: Edgar vs Munhoz Main Card Betting Preview and Predictions

On Saturday, August 22^nd, the UFC returns to Las Vegas for another action packed event from their APEX center featuring Frankie Edgar vs Pedro Munhoz in the main event of the night. Edgar is making his bantamweight debut and taking on the 5^th ranked Munhoz.

The main card also features two light heavyweight fights with Ovince St. Preux taking on Alonzo Menifield and Mike Rodriguez taking on Marcin Prachnio. The final main card fight is Takashi Sato taking on Daniel Rodriguez.

This portion of the UFC on ESPN 15 event is set to begin at 8:30 PM ET on ESPN. There is a seven fight preliminary card with a start time of 5:30 PM ET.

This UFC lineup has been snake bitten with last minute changes due to injuries and other factors. The co-main event was supposed to feature Yoel Romero versus Uriah Hall, but Romero pulled out over a week ago. Ovince St. Preux also needed a new opponent as well.

The prelims have seen at least three or four fight changes in the last week alone. And, there might be a few more changes to the card before fight night.

Online sportsbooks have released odds and props for the four main card fights. Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine these odds courtesy of 5Dimes, identify any value, and put these predictions in a rear naked chokehold.

Takashi Sato vs Daniel Rodriguez

• Takashi Sato (+160)
• Daniel Rodriguez (-185)
• Over (+100)/Under (-120) 2.5 rounds

Takashi Sato is making his 4^th trip inside the octagon where he’s posted a 2-1 record since debuting in April 2019. He last fought two months ago and won via 1^st round TKO over Jason Witt in 48 seconds. Sato’s lone loss in the UFC was via submission against Belal Muhammad.

Sato won’t have to worry about being out-grappled in this contest as Rodriguez is a striker with power. For Sato, 11 of his 16 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 3-0 when going the distance. Don’t be fooled as the Japanese fighter has a strong background in judo and is solid on the mat.

Rodriguez enters this bout on an eight fight winning streak, which includes going 2-0 in the UFC. He made his octagon debut in February and defeated Tim Means via 2^nd round submission. He followed that up with a unanimous decision win over Gabriel Green in May.

10 of his 12 pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of TKO/KO. Rodriguez is 2-1 when going the distance.

Rodriguez is the favorite largely due to his hard hitting style, but don’t count out Sato as he is a live dog in this contest. His judo and grappling could be the advantage that the Japanese fighter needs in order to get the win.

With only six bouts going to a decision in a total of 32 combined fights for both men, you can see why the odds favor this fight ending inside the distance (-150). Under 2.5 rounds is slightly favored as well with -120 odds. Go with both favorites as these two men have a combined 23 finishes in 32 fights.

The safe play is on Rodriguez to get the win inside the distance (+165) most likely via TKO/KO (+240). With that said, I am going to take the risk here and go with Sato to pull off the upset by defeating Rodriguez via TKO/KO.

Mike Rodriguez vs Marcin Prachnio

• Mike Rodriguez (-235)
• Marcin Prachnio (+195)
• Over (+100)/Under (-120) 1.5 rounds

Prachnio is 0-2 in the UFC and hasn’t fought since September 2018. Both of his UFC fights ended in TKO/KO losses to Sam Alvey and Magomed Ankalaev. This will also be Prachnio’s second fight in the U.S., which adds more pressure to the Polish fighter.

11 of his 13 pro wins have come via stoppage with 10 by way of TKO/KO. The heavy punching Polish striker is 2-1 when going the distance.

Mike Rodriguez will make his 5^th trip into the octagon this weekend after earning a contract in August 2017 from winning on DWTNCS. Currently, Rodriguez sits 1-2 with 1 NC in the UFC. He last fought in December and lost via 1^st round KO.

All 10 of his victories have come via stoppage with eight by way of TKO/KO. He’s 0-2 when going the distance.

Both men have suffered knockout losses and I expect a TKO/KO outcome for this fight as well. Rodriguez has one TKO/KO loss and Prachnio has three.

I think Rodriguez is the better fighter in this contest. Neither are impressive, but Prachnio has showed me nothing in the UFC. Take Rodriguez to win via knockout and send Prachnio packing from the UFC.

Ovince St. Preux vs Alonzo Menifield

• Ovince St. Preux (+115)
• Alonzo Menifield (-135)
• Over (-120)/Under (+100) 1.5 rounds

Like the majority of fights on this card, Ovince St. Preux was scheduled to face Shamil Gamzatov, but the latter withdrew from the competition. Alonzo Menifield is taking the fight on a week’s notice.

When we last saw OSP he went up to fight Ben Rothwell in the heavyweight division and lost via split decision in a very entertaining fight three months ago. So, the 37 year old decided to come back down to light heavyweight for this bout.

OSP is looking to get back into the win column and prove that he’s not past his prime. St. Preux has dropped three of his last four fights. 19 of his 24 pro wins have come via stoppage with 11 via TKO/KO. He’s 5-9 when going the distance.

Alonzo Menifield fought two months ago and lost the first fight of his career via unanimous decision to Devin Clark. That was also the only time he’s ever gone the distance in a fight. Prior to that, Menifield was 9-0 and had two knockouts over Castro and Paul Craig. Eight of his nine pro wins have come via TKO/KO.

All nine of Menifield’s wins came in under 1.5 rounds. His last four wins all came in the 1^st round. This fight comes down to whether or not OSP can survive the opening round.

After fighting a bigger opponent in his last bout, and taking serious power shots from Rothwell, I believe OSP can survive the 1^st round against a powerful Menifield.

From there, I expect OSP to use his striking to set up a takedown where he will finish off a gassed out Menifield with a submission. OSP still has gas in the tank and I see him finishing off the fight inside the distance (-270) and past the 1.5 round mark (-120).

Frankie Edgar vs Pedro Munhoz

• Frankie Edgar (+215)
• Pedro Munhoz (-255)
• Over (+105)/Under (-125) 3.5 rounds

Saturday’s fight marks the first time Frankie Edgar competes in the bantamweight division after spending seven years as a featherweight where he’s still ranked 8^th in that weight class.

Edgar last fought in December and lost via 1^st round TKO to the Korean Zombie. That loss came on the heels of a unanimous decision loss to Max Holloway a year ago. Edgar is 1-3 in his last four fights.

Coming into this contest, Edgar remains confident that he will win the bout. He plans to push the pace and take whatever opening he can find:

“I think it could touch all facets of the game. I’m going to be in his face. I will push the pace and if the takedown is there, I will utilize it. He has good jiu-jitsu and I’m sure if he sees a takedown he will go for it, too.”

11 of his 23 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of TKO/KO. Edgar is 12-6-1 when going the distance.

Munhoz is the 5^th ranked bantamweight and could’ve been in line for a title shot, but dropped his last bout to Aljamain Sterling via unanimous decision. The loss snapped a three fight win streak which included TKO/KO wins over Bryan Caraway and Cody Garbrandt in the 1^st round.

13 of his 18 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of submission. He’s 5-4 when going the distance.

If Edgar wants to win this fight, he needs to mix his boxing with takedowns and lean on his strong wrestling skills. Although Munhoz is solid in jiu-jitsu, I think Edgar can find some success on the mat.

Munhoz has the power, speed and kick advantages, but Edgar has the experience. If he’s learned anything from his last bout, that’s not to get into a firefight with a power puncher.

Before picking a winner, let’s take care of the other prop bets first. I see this fight going Over 3.5 rounds and I believe there is value with the +105 odds. I also see this fight going the distance at +135 odds.

Edgar is a tough out for anyone. He’s been stopped twice in the last two years, but that’s it. His other losses were all via decision. He went five full rounds with Holloway, I believe he can go the distance in this one as well (+135). I really like the prop bet of this fight starting the 4^th round at -117 odds.

I will be rooting for Edgar to win, but I think bettors should play this one safe by taking Munhoz to get the victory via decision. Edgar is 38 years old and going up against a 33 year old in his prime. A win for Munhoz puts him back into the title hunt and gives him the biggest victory of his career.