Vice Presidential Debate Prop Bets

The last week or so has felt like a whirlwind for political news, even by today’s incredible standards. Within the past week-and-a-half, the New York Times dropped a bombshell of a story that revealed that President Donald Trump paid just $750 in taxes in 2017. A couple of days later, Americans got a glimpse of a horror show of a debate between Trump and his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.

A couple of days later, the president came down with the virus. Trump has already been discharged after spending the weekend in the hospital, but it’s safe to assume that particular story isn’t going anywhere any time soon.

On Wednesday, the vice-presidential candidates will go toe-to-toe on the same stage for the first time. Trump’s VP, Mike Pence, will debate Biden’s VP candidate, Kamala Harris, in Salt Lake City, Utah. BetOnline is giving bettors the chance to wager on the festivities with a few debate-specific props available online right now.

If you’re going to cringe-watch the VP debate, you might as well do so with a little money on the line, right? Let’s find some betting value in these political props.

How Many Times Will Harris Say “Lie/Lied/Liar?”

• Over 1.5 (-300)
• Under 1.5 (+200)

Easy money here. Biden hammered Trump on his proclivity for avoiding the truth during last week’s presidential debate. Trump’s history of being loose with the facts is clearly one of his Achilles heels, and the Democrats would be foolish not to try and exploit that as often as possible.

This is a debate between VP candidates, but Harris knows that Trump is the one to be attacking.

Voters will vote one way or the other depending on how they feel about Trump, not Pence. While Pence is guilty by association with regard to many things that have taken place over the past four years, we can say with certainty that Harris will go after Trump’s dishonest track record in the debate.

This total is just way too low. I’d probably take the over on 5.5. Even at -300, I’d be all over the over on Harris saying “lie/lied/liar” here tonight.

Which Candidate Will Lie First?

• Mike Pence (-300)
• Kamala Harris (+200)

I’m sensing a theme here. Going into the debate, we know that the first question from the moderator will be directed at Pence. So, he will have the first opportunity to lie, if he chooses to do so.

While the format of tonight’s debate will be the same as last week’s Trump/Biden extravaganza, this time we do not know the topics beforehand. We can pretty safely guess what the topics will be, though, and the president having contracted the virus seems like a pretty good place to start.

While Pence may not lie with as much frequency or gusto as his running mate, he still hasn’t been the most forthcoming fella over the years. There’s a strong chance both candidates will lie at some point tonight, but with Pence getting the first question, he looks like the obvious choice here.

That said, the value lies with Harris at +200. This isn’t my favorite bet either way, but a small flier on Harris at +200 makes sense just for the potential upside. You’re not getting much bang for your buck on the current VP at -300.

Which Candidate Will Say “Coronavirus” More Times?

• Mike Pence (+100)
• Kamala Harris (-150)

Pence may be the head of the White House’s virus task force, but the administration has been doing everything it possibly can to try and distance from the virus over the past several weeks. The response to the pandemic is not one of the current administration’s points of pride, which is why they will often try to change the subject to try and talk about anything else instead:

You can’t totally dodge a topic on the debate stage, though, and the virus will surely be a huge talking point tonight. It would be hugely shocking if this wasn’t the first topic of discussion.

The admin’s middling response to the pandemic is something the Democrats can use to their advantage politically. Harris obviously knows this, so one would imagine she’ll be pressing the issue as often as possible during the debate. Again, I think the smart bet is Harris on this one.

Which Candidate Will Say “Mask(s)” More Times?

• Mike Pence (+170)
• Kamala Harris (-250)

For whatever reason, the idea of wearing masks to prevent the spread of the virus has become political. The president has frequently scoffed at the effectiveness of masks, even doing so during last week’s debate. Biden, meanwhile, is seen wearing a mask just about everywhere he goes.

Im told the debate commission will announce that – except the candidates and the moderator- all in hall must wear masks until the conclusion of debates now. Those who do not will be escorted out. (In Cleveland this week, the first family took their masks off after walking in)

— Dana Bash (@DanaBashCNN) October 3, 2020

Pence’s own track record with mask-wearing is dicey, as well. He visited the Mayo Clinic back in May without wearing a mask, which went against the clinic’s health protocols. He later said he regretted the decision.

Pence surely won’t be as condemnatory about masks as Trump was, but I would still expect Harris to harp on their effectiveness more often. This looks like another spot to roll with the senator over the VP.

Will Either Candidate Be Seen In a Mask At the Table?

• Yes (+550)
• No (-1000)

Unlike last week’s debate, both candidates tonight will be seated at their own tables, which are separated by about 12 feet and plexiglass barriers. Both candidates will surely be masked as they walk to their respective tables, but both will likely unmask as soon as they sit down to begin the debate.

The specifics of this prop are a bit unclear. Is it asking whether either candidate will begin the debate with a mask still on? Or is it asking whether either candidate will actually sit before removing their mask?

Based on the odds, the prop seems to be asking whether either candidate will actually debate while wearing a mask. Could Harris do so to prove a point? It’s possible. There is a lot of theater involved in politics, and insisting on wearing a mask would certainly accomplish that goal.

Still, we have to side with “no” here at -1000. While masks are proven to be effective in combating the virus, the point of a debate is for each candidate to get their message across. Neither of them will don the mask during the debate.

Will Harris Say “Pray/Prayer/Praying/Prayed?”

• Yes (+135)
• No (-175)

We know both VP candidates are religious. Harris may not be as overtly evangelical as Pence, but both have long histories with faith.

There are plenty of possibilities tonight. I’m not sure how often the topic of faith will be broached tonight, but all you need is one utterance from the VP hopeful for this bet to cash. At +135, I like the odds on “yes.”

Will Either Candidate Stand Up During the Debate?

• Yes (+700)
• No (-2000)

Again, this is a seated debate, unlike the one we had last week. Much like last week’s, this debate will also be held continuously without commercial interruption. The debate is slated to last for 90 minutes, which is obviously a long time to remain seated.

Due to safety precautions, the candidates won’t be shaking hands or getting too close together. One would imagine Harris in particular would like to remain safely behind her plexiglass barrier, especially with Pence possibly having been exposed to the virus at some point over the past couple of weeks.

Good morning from inside the site of tonight’s Pence-Harris vice presidential debate. pic.twitter.com/MIKbhO4u8w

— Geoff Bennett (@GeoffRBennett) October 7, 2020

Debates are all about optics. Both candidates will want to show that they have down-to-earth temperaments and that they won’t get rattled despite the potential for tough questioning. Pence specifically has to show a steady hand given the chaos that is constantly engulfing Trump’s administration.

I don’t expect tonight’s event to get nearly as heated or out of control as last week’s did. This should be a more tame, civil showing all around. I seriously doubt either candidate gets up from the table while the debate is ongoing.