Week 4 MNF Betting Guide: Falcons vs Packers Odds and Pick

The Week 4 MNF matchup features a desperate and mocked Atlanta Falcons team looking to pull off the big upset on the road against one of the NFC’s best teams in the Green Bay Packers.

Can Atlanta prevent another embarrassing loss for the third straight week or will the Packers put the Falcons one step closer to firing head coach Dan Quinn? Kickoff inside Lambeau Field is at 8:15PM ET.

Falcons vs Packers Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of MyBookie:

Atlanta vs Green Bay MNF Game Preview

The Packers and the Falcons have played against each other 34 times with Green Bay leading the series 18-16. The Packers have gone 5-3 in the last eight meetings, are 12-5 SU at home against Atlanta, and have won three straight at Lambeau Field versus the Falcons.

• The Atlanta Falcons (0-3) for the second straight week have allowed a team to come back from a double digit deficit to win the game. The Falcons dropped two games in a row as they blew double digit, 4^th quarter leads against the Cowboys and the Bears. They’re one more embarrassing loss away from firing the head coach.
• The Green Bay Packers (3-0) looks even better than last year’s 13-3 team that made it to the NFC Championship game. The Packers offense is explosive with QB Aaron Rodgers having a monster season so far. Can Green Bay continue this torrid pace and remain one of the best teams in the NFL?

Head to Head Betting Trends

• Both teams are 5-5 SU in last 10 meetings
• Atlanta is 6-4 ATS in last 10 contests
• Over is 7-3 in last 10 matchups
• Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in last seven games at Green Bay

Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends

• 1-4 SU in last five NFC North games
• 1-4 SU in last five October games
• 2-5 SU when Underdog of 3.5 to 9.5pts
• 6-11 SU in last 17 games as Underdog
• 4-9 SU after losing two straight games
• 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall games
• 5-0 ATS in last five road games
• 1-5 ATS in last six October games
• 2-4 ATS when Underdog of 3.5 to 9.5pts
• Over is 6-1 in last seven overall games
• Over is 5-0 in last five NFC games

Green Bay Packers Betting Trends

• 9-1 SU in last 10 overall games
• 7-0 SU in last seven home games
• 5-1 SU in last six October games
• 13-3 SU when Favorite of 3.5 to 9.5pts
• 8-3 SU after winning two straight games
• 4-1 ATS in last five overall games
• 4-1 ATS in last five Week 4 games
• Over is 5-1 in last five NFC South games
• Over is 5-0 in last five overall games

The Packers opened as a 5 point favorite, but have seen that spread go up to -7.5 points with most NFL betting sites. The Over/Under opened at 58 total points and remains unchanged with most online betting sites.

However, after some line shopping, we’ve found that MyBookie has the O/U at 57.5 total points. A half point could be the difference between winning and losing.

Free MNF Sports Bet and Game Prediction: Over 58 Total Points (-110)

I don’t want to harp on Atlanta’s late-game disasters these last two weeks, but it’s been terrible to watch. With that said, I don’t see a third straight last minute collapse this week. Instead, I see the Packers leading for most of the game and cruising to a victory.

How much the Packers win by is up for debate. I do see Green Bay putting up over 35 points on the Falcons, but I believe they will allow Atlanta to put up garbage time points just like the Falcons did in Week 1 against the Seahawks. I’m not 100% confident in Green Bay winning by eight or more points.

The wager I do feel the most confident in is the Over. I believe these two teams will combine to score 58 or more points in what should be a shootout on Monday Night Football.

For Atlanta, the Over is 6-1 in their last seven overall games and 5-0 in their last five NFC matchups. For the Packers, the Over is 5-0 in their last five overall games and 5-1 in their last six games against the NFC South.

On the season, these two teams have combined to score 70.7ppg. They’ve also combined to allow 64.3ppg. Furthermore, in the last 10 head to head matchups, these two teams have combined to score 56ppg which is very close to this week’s O/U.

Atlanta has no defense as they allow 475.7 total ypg, 36ppg, and 362.7 passing ypg. The Packers lead the NFL in scoring at 40.7ppg, are 6^th with 295.7 passing ypg, are 2^nd with 171.7 rushing ypg, and lead the NFL in yards per play. This is a very juicy matchup for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense.

On the other side of the ball, Atlanta is 6^th in scoring at 30ppg and 3^rd in passing yards at 320.3 ypg. Furthermore, the Packers defense allows 263.7 passing ypg, which should be good news for Matt Ryan and his receivers.

I see Green Bay getting out to a big lead and then allow the Falcons to close the gap with garbage time points. This will be a great game for anyone with fantasy football players on either team.

Look for Rodgers and company to improve to 4-0 and for the Falcons to fall to 0-4. Atlanta simply has no secondary to stop Green Bay. This should also be one of the highest scoring games of the week.

Falcons vs Packers Betting Recap:

• Oddsmaker: MyBookie
• Moneylines: Falcons (+281) vs Packers (-350)
• Spread: Packers -7.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: 58 total points (-110)
• Prediction: Green Bay 38 – Atlanta 30