Where Will Dak Prescott Play in 2021: Dallas, Indy, LA?

One of the biggest offseason storylines just got juicier as the Dallas Cowboys and starting QB Dak Prescott were unable to come to an agreement on a long term deal. They had until July 15^th to work out a deal or Prescott would have to play under the franchise tag.

Don’t be too sad for Dak because the franchise tag requires that the Cowboys pay Prescott $31.4 million dollars this season. The team will have to come to an agreement after the season, franchise Prescott again or let him walk via free agency.

The other possibility is that the Cowboys could look to trade Prescott to a team in need of a potential franchise QB. Let’s examine the pros and cons of signing Dak Prescott to a long term deal before we dig deeper into the teams that might make a play for Dak in 2021 according to NFL betting sites.

The Cowboys and Dak Prescott did not reach a long-term agreement and he will play the 2020 season on the franchise tag.

Prescott is now set to become a free agent at the end of the year barring Dallas placing the tag on him again. pic.twitter.com/tJg4MUXoMc

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) July 15, 2020

The Dak Prescott Debate

Dak Prescott has become a polarizing figure not because of who he his, but because of the heated debate of whether or not Dak deserves to be paid like an elite QB.

The Cowboys previously offered Dak a $33 million dollar a year extension after his 3^rd season and he rejected it. It’s believed that Dak’s camp wants at least $35 million per year. Additionally, the duration of the contract has become a sticking point as reports say it could be four or five years long.

Let’s also look at it this way, Dak is guaranteed $37.7 million dollars next year if the Cowboys franchise him again. So, that’s another bargaining chip in favor of Prescott.

If he waits until 2022, after two seasons of playing under one year franchise tags, he could be in a better position to make even more money. It would cost Dallas $54 million dollars to franchise him for a third straight year.

Additionally, the NFL is set to redo their TV contracts and salary caps are expected to get a healthy bump. Some project the cap bump to be more than 10%.

Right now, Prescott has the following factors in his favor:

• Age
• Rising QB market
• $37.7 million dollar franchise tag in 2021
• A rising salary cap in 2022
• $54.3 million dollar franchise tag in 2022

The one thing working against Dak is the chance of an injury. In four years, Dak hasn’t missed a game. So, it’s not like he’s injury prone. Every player runs the risk of injury, but it could be financially catastrophic if he does.

The Pros for Signing Dak Long Term

Whether you are a fan or not of Prescott, the 26 year old QB has improved in his career and had strong numbers to back up his reasoning for an elite contract after the 2019 season.

In 2019, Prescott finished with the following stats. Inside the parentheses is where Dak ranked in the NFL last year:

• 4902 passing yards (2^nd)
• 1 completion percentage (13^th)
• 30 TD passes (4^th)
• 11 INTs (14^th)
• 5 passing ypg (3^rd)
• 7 QBR (10^th)

That is a solid season for any QB. Furthermore, Dak set career highs in passing yards, passing TDs, TD%, and passing yards per game.

In addition to his on-field progress, Dak is just 26 years old and not yet in his prime. His trajectory could make Prescott a Top 5 QB if he continues to improve and perform at this rate.

If we’re to look at Dak’s total body of work, a span of four seasons, his career numbers place him squarely in the Top 10 for every major statistical category. These numbers are based on ESPN’s in-depth look at QBs that have thrown for at least 1,200 passing attempts since 2016 (Dak’s rookie year):

• Passing yards (6^th)
• Passing TDs (9^th)
• INTs (11^th)
• TD-to-INT ratio (8^th)
• Passer rating (8^th)
• Total QBR (3^rd)

These are just a few examples of Dak’s career rankings within the parameters mentioned above. As you can see, his numbers show that he’s definitely a Top 10 QB in the league.

Lastly, Dak has led the Cowboys to two Playoff appearances in four years. He’s 1-2 in the postseason, but has fared well in all three games.

The Cowboys have until 4 PM ET to work out a long-term contract with Dak Prescott, otherwise, he will play this season under the franchise tag.

Most Wins by Starting QB since 2016

Tom Brady 47-13

Russell Wilson 40-23-1

Dak Prescott 40-24 pic.twitter.com/SUh4drcM6d

— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) July 15, 2020

The Cons for Signing Dak Long Term

The biggest knock on Dak is his inability to beat winning teams. In 18 career games against teams with 10+ wins by the end of the season, Prescott has a record of 5-13. His TD-to-INT ration is 22-19 and his QBR is 19^th in the league.

Last year, he went 0-5 against teams that won 10+ games. The Cowboys finished 8-8 and failed to make the Playoffs after having a huge season offensively. This led to the firing of head coach Jason Garrett.

Another criticism with Dak is that he turns the ball over too much. Two of his four seasons have seen double digit interceptions and he also has 31 fumbles over his career.

Dak Prescott Betting Odds

• Indianapolis Colts (+600)
• Los Angeles Chargers (+700)
• Chicago Bears (+800)
• Minnesota Vikings (+800)
• Jacksonville Jaguars (+900)
• New Orleans Saints (+900)
• Pittsburgh Steelers (+1000)
• Washington (+1000)
• Carolina Panthers (+1200)
• New England Patriots (+1200)
• Detroit Lions (+1400)
• Tennessee Titans (+1400)
• Miami Dolphins (+1600)
• Buffalo Bills (+1800)
• Cincinnati Bengals (+2000)
• New York Jets (+2000)
• Houston Texans (+2500)

It should be noted that Dallas isn’t even a betting option for this prop bet. Additionally, all of these teams are +600 to +2500, which means that there really isn’t a frontrunner to land Dak if he leaves Dallas next year.

No Chance Dak Goes to These Teams

The Texans, Bengals, Bills, Dolphins, Vikings and Titans all have franchise quarterbacks which makes it pointless to bring in Prescott. The Bengals, Dolphins, and Bills have team friendly rookie contracts for their franchise QBs for at least the 2021 season.

The Titans signed Tannehill to a massive deal, which Prescott would surpass. The Vikings gave Cousins a large extension and his numbers are just as good as Dak’s in most major categories.  Houston’s Deshaun Watson will reset the QB market for all players not named Patrick Mahomes.

The Chargers just drafted a franchise QB this year and it makes no sense to waste a high first round pick in 2020 just to bring in Prescott next year. That would mean Justin Herbert wouldn’t play for his entire rookie deal, which would be terrible team building.

A Small Chance

The Jets and Lions have QBs already, but there’s an outside chance that they could end up looking at Prescott. New York’s QB Sam Darnold hasn’t played well in his short career, but it’s not all his fault. Poor coaching and turnover on both the roster and front office have not helped Darnold at all.

Stafford in Detroit is getting long in the tooth and the team could look for an upgrade. Dak would be a younger QB with a higher ceiling. He certainly would excel in the Detroit explosive offense with playmakers all around him.

The Patriots could take a look at Prescott, but that would only happen if QBs Cam Newton and Stidham have a bad 2020 season. New England likes what they have in the young QB Stidham, while Newton could return to MVP form if he’s healthy.

Washington has Dwayne Haskins as their potential franchise QB, but the young quarterback will need to show growth in 2020. If not, then Prescott could be the solution.

The Panthers believe in Teddy Bridgewater to lead their team. If he’s fully healthy, Bridgewater could do really well as he has a lot of potential. Whether or not that potential is more than Prescott’s is up for debate. 2020 will be a telling year for Carolina under new head coach Matt Rhule.

Retirement Could Open the Door

Drew Brees with the Saints, Philip Rivers with the Colts, and Ben Roethlisberger with Steelers are all starting QBs that could retire after this season. Brees already has a TV gig lined up for his post-playing days, Rivers has plenty of kids to keep him busy, and Big Ben could end up coaching on some level.

All three of these teams could use the services of Prescott and would have the money to pay him once these 2020 starting QBs retire. Additionally, all three of these teams would remain legitimate Playoff contenders with Prescott as quarterback.

Teams That Need Prescott

Of all the teams listed, it’s the Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars that need a QB the most.

In the case of Chicago, they have Foles and Trubisky battling it out for the starting QB spot in 2020. However, one or both could be gone after the season especially if the Bears go after Dak Prescott who’s a clear upgrade over both of the Bears’ current QBs.

Furthermore, signing Prescott could make the Bears a Super Bowl contender as they have an elite defense and a solid supporting cast.

In Jacksonville, Minshew is the starting quarterback, but his ceiling isn’t as high as Prescott’s. Minshew has a great mustache, but that’s not going to win Super Bowls. Prescott would make this team better and attract more free agents.

Both of these teams should jump at the chance at getting Prescott. In fact, their GM’s should be calling Dallas every week seeing what it would take to trade for Dak.

Where Will Dak Play in 2021?

Unless Dallas trades Prescott this year, which they could get multiple 1^st round picks, I don’t see Dak leaving the Cowboys in 2021. They can easily franchise him again and spend another year working on a long term deal.

This Dak Prescott prop bet is more of a “what if” scenario than a reality. Something to get bettors and football fans talking, but not anything to invest any serious money in.

At best, place a small flier. Otherwise, it’s probably best to wait until NFL betting websites list a prop bet on Prescott’s future that includes Dallas as a betting option rather than taking this current futures bet.