Which Player Catches Tom Brady’s First TD Pass as a Buccaneer?

The hype around Tom Brady’s adventure with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers continues to grow as we get closer to the start of the 2020 NFL season. Expectations are high for this team to not only compete for the NFC South division title, but to also be a strong contender for the NFC Conference championship.

Like with most of what Tom Brady does these days, predicting his success on the field in 2020 has become a weekly occurrence from fans, analysts and sportsbooks.

NFL betting sites have recently released a new prop bet looking at which player will catch Tom Brady’s first touchdown pass as a Buccaneer. Let’s huddle up and examine the betting options, identify any value, and see if we can score a touchdown with these predictions.

Receiver of Tom Brady’s 1st Buccaneers TD

• Chris Godwin (+195)
• Mike Evans (+200)
• Rob Gronkowski (+340)
• Cameron Brate (+700)
• J. Howard (+700)
• Ronald Jones (+700)
• Dare Ogunbowale (+1100)
• Justin Watson (+1600)
• Scotty Miller (+1800)

The Tampa TD Favorites

Chris Godwin (+195)

The talented wide receiver is entering the 4^th season of his career and expectations are high that he and Mike Evans can be the best tandem of receivers in the NFL.

Last season, Godwin led the Bucs in receiving yards with 1,333 yards on 86 receptions. He also put up nine TDs and was a force across the middle of the field. Yet, Godwin isn’t just a slot receiver as he has the speed and size to work on the outside as well.

He’s the favorite largely due to his continued on-field evolution and because he’s playing in a similar role that Julian Edelman plays in New England. And, we all know the “bromance” that Edelman and Brady had both on and off the field.

Mike Evans (+200)

Last season was the first time since 2013, prior to Evans entering the league, that the powerful wide receiver didn’t lead the Bucs in receiving yards. However, he still put up solid numbers with 67 receptions, 1,157 yards and eight TDs.

In fact, the 2019 totals marked the 6^th straight season that Mike Evans had at least 1,000 yards receiving and at least 67 receptions in a season.

One more stunning stat is that Evans averaged 17.3 yards per catch in 2019. Can you imagine what he’s going to do with Brady at QB?

“TB 12” hasn’t had this type of downfield threat and outside presence since Randy Moss played with the Patriots over a decade ago.

Rob Gronkowski (+340)

Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady have become one of the most prolific scoring duos in NFL history. They’ve climbed into the Top 5 all-time and can continue their ascension with a strong 2020 season.

Gronk hasn’t played since the Super Bowl win over the Rams in 2019. It was also a down year for the future HOF tight end as he dealt with injuries.

Now, Gronk returns after a season off and fully healed. In fact, he’s healthier than he’s been in many years and excited to play again with Brady.

We all know the chemistry that these two have on the field. But, will that equate to Gronkowski catching Brady’s first TD pass as a Buccaneer?

Best Bucs Betting Value

Cameron Brate (+700) and O.J. Howard (+700) offer betting value due to Brady’s affinity for the tight end position in years past. From Gronk to Hernandez and others, Brady has often targeted his big pass catchers especially in the red zone.

Howard had a down year last season as he seemed to be in the “dog house” with head coach Bruce Arians. O.J. had only one TD in 2019, which was the lowest total of his three year career. Yet, his downfall was a boom for Brate who had four TDs and appears in line for a bump in 2020 as well.

Gronk will get plenty of playing time, but Howard and Brate will benefit greatly from Rob taking most of the attention in two tight end sets. Of Brate and Howard, Cameron gets the edge. However, it’s important to keep an eye on which player wins the #2 TE spot during training camp.

Best Longshot

James White and Rex Burkhead benefitted greatly from playing in the Patriots offense with Tom Brady at the helm. White averaged roughly 80 receptions, 700 yards, and six TDs, over the last two seasons.

This bodes well for Tampa running back Ronald Jones (+700) who has the talent to be Tampa’s “James White.” Last season, he had 31 receptions for 309 yards. I can see these numbers doubling in 2020 with Brady leading the charge even with rookie Vaughn and veteran McCoy in the backfield.

Brady’s First TD Passes Over Last Decade

Since 2010, Brady has thrown the first TD of the season to receivers just three times: Wes Welker (2010), Julian Edelman (2013) and Josh Gordon (2019). He’s thrown it to a running back just once in the last decade (Burkhead in 2017).

In six of the last 10 years, Brady found a tight end for his first TD pass of the season:

• Rob Gronkowski in 2011, 2014, 2015, 2018
• Aaron Hernandez in 2012
• Martellus Bennett in 2016

This is another reason why I believe Howard and Brate offer betting value. As you can see, Brady tends to favor the TE position in the red zone.

Bucs First TD Catches of Season Over Last Five Years

Since 2015, in Tampa, receivers have caught the first TD pass of the season three years straight:

• Mike Evans in 2017
• DeSean Jackson in 2018
• Chris Godwin in 2019

In 2015 (Austin Seferian-Jenkins) and 2016 (Brand Myers), tight ends caught the first TD passes. Will this position be able to do it again in 2020?

Who Catches Brady’s First Tampa TD Pass?

The odds at NFL betting sites favor Chris Godwin catching the first TD pass, but I see it a little differently. If you look at the last 10 years, Welker and Edelman only caught the first TD pass of the season twice. That’s going to be Godwin’s role in the Tampa offense.

Furthermore, the Bucs play the Saints in the first game of the 2020 season. Last year, Godwin tore up the Saints for 10 catches, 172 yards and three TDs. I don’t see New Orleans allowing Godwin the same success in 2020. Plus, Evans will be on lockdown with Lattimore smothering him all game long.

The reality is that the TE position will be the primary target for Brady as the Bucs’ receiving duo will have tough matchups. That favors the betting options of Gronkowski, Brate and Howard. Plus, I don’t see the Saints having anyone that can stop Gronk down the middle of the field.

Since we don’t even know who will be the true #2 tight end, it all comes down to Gronkowski. The caveman has caught the first TD of the season on four different occasions including the last time he played in the NFL (2018).

It’s just too good of a story to pass up on. Gronk comes out of retirement, heads to Tampa, reunites with Brady, and will start off the 2020 season catching Brady’s first TD pass as a Buccaneer. And, at least for one weekend, the Brady and Gronk fairy tale will be alive and well.