2020 US Presidential Betting Odds: October 28th – November 3rd

Well folks, we’re here. It’s the final week before the end of the 2020 Presidential election. And while the finish line is in sight, there’s still so much that can happen between now and election day. It’s almost as if each day counts for more and more the closer you get to the election.

When it comes to betting on the U.S. Presidential election, we saw a lot of changes this week in the odds. There was a heavy shift in Joe Biden’s favor and then a strong move back the other way. What this probably means is that someone placed a big bet on Joe Biden, and then sharp bettors jumped all over the new and more favorable odds for President Trump.

Does this mean those sharp bettors think President Trump is going to win? Maybe. Remember, professional bettors will wager on sides of the coin they don’t expect to win, but they think have better odds than they should be getting. But it could also mean they think he’s going to win and are just doubling down on the better odds.

Let’s take a look at how the odds shook up this week and then a few things that could sway the odds as we lead into election night.

Donald Trump (+150)

• Previous Odds Last Week: (+125)

Earlier in the week, these odds got to as high as +190! At +190, the implied odds say the President has a 34.5% chance of winning. At +150, where things ended up, the implied odds signal an even 40% chance for the President to get four more years. Again, these are not polls. They are merely what the betting public thinks is going to happen.

Regardless of the shift back, the odds you’ll get betting on the President to win the election are better this week than last week. In other words, he’s a bigger underdog based on the odds. If you think President Trump is going to win, you can collect a nice payday.

Joe Biden (-180)

• Previous Odds Last Week: (-165)

As one candidate’s odds go one way, the other candidate goes the other. This week Joe Biden was as big as a -205 favorite before swinging back to a -180 favorite. Compared with last week, that’s a big jump in the odds for the former VP. It reflects an implied probability change of 62.3% to 64.3% chance of winning.

Again, these are not polls. These are just the betting lines. If you think the former VP has better than a 64.3% chance of winning the election, betting on him would be a wise move. If you think he has a lower percentage chance of winning, a bet on President Donald Trump is the right move.

Below we have included links to our previous weekly updates to the US Presidential betting odds so you can see how things have changed over the past few weeks.

What Could Change the Odds This Week

• Everything – Okay, so this is a bit of a cop-out answer, but it’s the truth. EVERYTHING in the week leading up to a Presidential election could change the outcome. For example, if it’s rainy in a battleground state on election day, that could hurt turn out. If another country does something crazy, it could affect how people vote. Yes, a ton of people have voted early, but every vote counts for 1. That means the votes on Tuesday are just as important.
• The Final Push – Each candidate is working hard to rally support into the final days. A lot of experts agree that this election is way less about swaying undecided voters and way more about getting people in your base out to vote. The candidate that is able to do that best is going to have a good chance of taking the Oval Office. Currently, Joe Biden and his team have taken a much more relaxed approach to the final week with a few sporadic rallies here and there. President Trump, on the other hand, had been doing 3+ rallies a day and is upping that to 5+ a day this weekend.

Other Election Betting Odds to Look At

You can bet on a lot more than just who wins the White House this year. A popular vote that people get into is betting on individual state outcomes. You can bet on which candidate is going to win a particular state. And while betting odds aren’t polls, they may be able to help you identify shifts and trends in key battleground states.

Let’s look at a few interesting ones.

Joe Biden was -200 to win the state of Arizona back in mid-September. That has now shifted to -150. This still makes him a favorite, but the odds have shifted back the other direction.

President Trump was only -120 to win the state of Florida back in September. Those odds have jumped to -165 now, signaling the President is now a bigger favorite in the state (at least according to betting odds).

And in case you’re curious about some of the other battleground states:

• Republicans are a -165 favorite in Georgia (some would argue this isn’t a true battleground, but that’s a discussion for a different day).
• Democrats are -310 favorites in Michigan.
• Democrats are -330 favorites in Minnesota.
• Democrats are -350 favorites in Nevada.
• It’s a dead-heat in North Carolina.
• Republicans are -290 favorites in Ohio.
• Democrats are -185 favorites in Pennsylvania.
• Republicans are -360 favorites in Texas.