The first Grand Slam of 2021 will get underway on February 8th, as the men’s top tennis players set out to conquer the hard courts of the 109th Australian Open in Melbourne, Australia.
No player has dominated this Grand Slam like Novak Djokovic who’s looking to capture his 9th Australian Open (AO) win and further extend his seemingly unbreakable record.
However, rising young stars like Dominic Thiem and Danill Medvedev are nipping at his heels and hungry for a big Grand Slam win.
This year’s Australian Open will be played under strict conditions due to the pandemic. The tournament was pushed back from January 18th to February 8th in order to give players two weeks of quarantine and isolation.
Additionally, Roger Federer is out with a knee injury and Rafael Nadal is less than 100% heading into the first Grand Slam of 2021.
Tennis betting sites have released their odds for the Australian Open. As expected, Djokovic is the sizable betting favorite. Let’s see if there’s any value with other players and ace our predictions.
It’s all sun and games at Melbourne Park 🌆🎾🎨#AusOpen #AO2021 pic.twitter.com/rr6n21m0Fb
— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) February 5, 2021
Australian Open Betting Odds:
The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:
- Novak Djokovic (+135)
- Daniil Medvedev (+450)
- Rafael Nadal (+650)
- Dominic Thiem (+650)
- Stefanos Tsitsipas (+1500)
- Alexander Zverev (+1700)
- Andrey Rublev (+2200)
- Jannik Sinner (+4400)
- Nick Kyrgios (+4700)
- Alex De Minaur (+6600)
- Denis Shapovalov (+8000)
- Milos Raonic (+9000)
- Stan Wawrinka (+10000)
Australian Open Favorites
The following players are considered the odds on favorites to win the 2021 Australian Open:
Novak Djokovic (+135)
The world’s number one men’s tennis player is looking to win his 3rd straight Australian Open. He will be the top seed in Quarter 1 and has smooth sailing until the 4th Round where he could face the 2014 Australian Open Stan Wawrinka.
If Djokovic is on his game and in good form then he should cruise past the 18th ranked Wawrinka. Novak is 19-6 all-time against Stan and 2-1 against him in the Australian Open. Wawrinka did beat Djokovic in the 2014 QF on his way to the title.
The next challenge for Djokovic would be the 7th ranked Alexander Zverev in the Quarter Finals. Djokovic is 4-2 all-time against Zverev and has won two in a row. Thye’ve only played one time in a Grand Slam and Djokovic beat Zverev in the QF of the French Open.
Djokovic could then have to face Dominic Thiem who is the #3 ranked men’s player in the world. Thiem is 5-7 against Djokovic and lost in the 2020 AO Finals to Novak.
They’re 2-2 in Grand Slams, but Thiem’s two wins have come at the French Open where he’s considered the second best clay court player behind Nadal.
Djokovic is second behind Nadal and Federer for the most career Grand Slam titles with 17. The other two greats have 20 titles.
At the Australian Open, Djokovic has won this tournament eight times and has also gone to the Finals eight times, Semi Finals eight times, and Quarter Finals 11 times. He’s 75-8 all-time at the AO with a 90% winning percentage.
The one concern about Djokovic this tournament is that he hasn’t won a Grand Slam since the 2020 AO and didn’t have the best seasons in 2020 due to covid.
Daniil Medvedev (+450)
The 4th ranked Medvedev got the luckiest Draw of all the top ranked players. He will be in the bottom half where he won’t have to face Djokovic until the Finals. His toughest challenge would be Nadal in the Semi Finals and that might not be an issue this year.
Medvedev has never made it past the 4th round of the AO where he’s 7-4 all-time. Yet, he closed out 2020 with a solid Semi Final performance for the US Open.
Medvedev could face Andrey Rublev in the QF, but he’s 3-0 all-time against his fellow Russian. He then could see Rafael Nadal who he’s 1-3 against or Stefanos Tsitsipas who he’s 5-1 against.
Could Medvedev sneak into the Finals and possibly face Djokovic?
Rafael Nadal (+650)
The big news heading into this year’s Australian Open, besides Federer’s absence and the quarantine, is that the #2 ranked men’s player Rafael Nadal is dealing with some health ailments and it could seriously hamper his chances at winning a second career Australian Open.
World number two Rafa Nadal said he pulled out of Spain’s opening ATP Cup tie in Melbourne on Tuesday with a lower back problem with less than a week left for the Australian Open. #RoyalSports #Tennis pic.twitter.com/0hTdhsBKAY
— AllRoundSports (@SilverSportsGh_) February 2, 2021
Nadal made the following comments this week about where he’s at physically:
“I’m not well enough to play. I’m improving bit by bit, but I’m not ready to play a match with maximum intensity. It’s not that I’m in a really bad way, but I’m also not all right in the sense that I can’t play either.”
Nadal’s admission makes it clear that he’s not in a position to challenge for the AO title. As the top seed in the bottom half of the Draw, Nadal wouldn’t have to face any Top 5 ranked players until the Semi Finals.
Yet, I highly doubt he even makes it that far. Last year, Nadal only made it to the Quarter Finals. However, he does have two Finals appearances in the last four years and five overall.
Nadal is 65-14 at the Australian Open and his lone tournament title came in 2009. He’s 1-5 in the Australian Open Finals.
Dominic Thiem (+650)
The 3rd ranked Thiem could be the one man to benefit the most if Djokovic isn’t on top of his game. Dominic lost in the Finals of the Australian Open last year to Djokovic. However, he finished off the year with a win at the US Open which was the first Grand Slam of his career.
At 27 years old, Thiem is poised to win more Grand Slams and it could come this month in Australia.
A QF matchup against Diego Schwartzman could be his biggest obstacle to a Semi Final match against Djokovic. Thiem is 6-3 against Schwartzman, but did lose to him last year in the French Open.
Australian Open Betting Value
The following men’s players offer value based on their past success in the Australian Open and their recent Grand Slam performances:
Stefanos Tsitsipas (+1500)
The 6th ranked Tsitsipas is also in the bottom half of the Draw where a wounded Nadal is there for the taking. He made it to the Australian Open Semi Finals in 2019, but was bounced in the 3rd round last year.
UPDATED | Stefanos Tsitsipas has defeated Alex de Minaur 6-3, 7-5 in a brilliant contest at the ATP Cup, bringing Greece level with Australia in the group stage tie at 1-1. #ATPCuphttps://t.co/JkfWzD6kH9
— The Age Sport (@theagesport) February 3, 2021
However, Tsitsipas could make a run this year where he wouldn’t face Nadal until the Quarter Finals. And, that is a big “if” since it doesn’t sound like Nadal is going to make it that far.
If Nadal goes out early then Tsitsipas could make it to the Semi Finals where he would face Medvedev for a shot at the Finals. Tsitsipas is 1-5 against Medvedev, but did beat him in their last matchup which came in 2019.
Alexander Zverev (+1700)
Zverev is the 7th ranked men’s tennis player and had a solid 2020 Grand Slam performance where he made it to the Semi Finals at the Australian Open and lost in the Finals to Dominic Thiem at the US Open.
Zverev lost to Thiem in the 2020 AO Semi Finals and is 2-8 against him all-time. He’s lost four in a row against Thiem and could face Dominic in the Semi Finals if he can upset Novak Djokovic in the Quarter Finals.
I like Zeverev as a player and he could certainly benefit if anything happens to Djokovic or Thiem. But, his road to an AO title is arguably the toughest.
Australian Open Long Shot
The 23rd ranked Alex De Minaur (+6600) didn’t play in the Australian Open last year. Yet, he did close out the 2020 season with a Quarter Final appearance at the US Open.
“The competition is what I truly missed, that’s why I felt like I needed to get back out there on court.” @alexdeminaur https://t.co/GibtH7oCXL
— Truist Atlanta Open 🎾 (@ATLOpenTennis) January 29, 2021
The Australian is 3-3 in his native country’s major tennis tournament. And he will be in the bottom Draw for the AO this year.
He could face Nadal in the 4th round if Rafael doesn’t abandon the tournament before then. After that, it’s potential showdowns against Tsitsipas and Medvedev before a Finals opportunity.
Of the longshots, I like the 21 year old the best due to his Draw, his close out of 2020, and his overall potential.
Who Will Win the 2021 Australian Open?
My Semi Finals matchups are Novak Djokovic vs Dominic Thiem in one half and Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas in the other half. I don’t see Nadal making it to the Semi Finals due to his overall health. His pre-Grand Slam comments are very concerning.
If Djokovic is in top form then he should beat Thiem who he’s 7-5 against. I expect Medvedev to beat Tsitsipas and have the easiest path to the AO Finals.
“It does feel like a home for me in Australia, in Melbourne, particularly Rod Laver [Arena]. This is by far my most successful tennis court in my career.”@djokernole | #ATPCup
— ATP Tour (@atptour) February 2, 2021
Djokovic is 4-3 against Medvedev all-time. He’s 1-0 against him in the Australian Open having beat the Russian in the 4th Round of the 2019 AO.
Like Nadal at the French Open, Djokovic is the king of Australia and the AO. Until he loses, you have to ride “The Djoker,” as he’s still the best player in the world and will move within two Grand Slam titles of Nadal and Federer for the all-time lead.
Who Wins the 2021 Australian Open?Djokovic (+135)
Rick Rockwell
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …
