2021 Kentucky Derby Top Contenders: Early Possibilities for Futures Betting

The 2021 Kentucky Derby is setting up to be a particularly wild affair as it is tentatively scheduled to return to its normal date in May. Many young horses are already stepping up in terms of being excellent candidates for futures bets. We’re here to help you in that vein by taking a look at the 2021 Kentucky Derby top contenders.

Hardcore Thoroughbred horse racing fans are the type to watch races all year long from all over the United States and even overseas. But for casual fans, the Kentucky Derby stands above all races on the calendar. For many folks, it is the one horse race that they bet all year long.

But you might not realize that the horses who compete in the Derby can give indications about their chances of winning well before the race takes pace. Many of these horses have already started their careers and have posted big victories. And you can even place early bets on the race through futures wagering.

How Kentucky Derby Futures Wagering Works

With futures wagers on the Kentucky Derby, you can speculate months in advance of the actual running of the race. You can bet on one of the 2021 Kentucky Derby top contenders now and get odds that are much more advantageous than when the race is near. Those odds are locked in for you when you make a futures bet, no matter what happens from now until the race.

One of those wagers is available starting on Friday, January 22nd to Sunday, January 24th, 2021. That gives you three days to get your bets in.

If you do, you might be able to pick up a return on investment that you usually don’t get on horse racing win bets, as long as you have the patience to wait it out until the 2021 Kentucky Derby actually takes place on Saturday, May 1st, 2021.

In the following article, we’ll help you out by taking you through a list of the top contenders for the 2021 Kentucky Derby. We’ll take a look at what each horse has done in their career to this point and project how they might do if they can make it to the race in May. By the time you check out this article, you should be ready to make those 2021 Kentucky Derby futures bets.

Ranking the 2021 Kentucky Derby Contenders

In the 2021 Kentucky Derby futures pool, there are currently 23 horse listed with odds to win the race in May. But the favorite isn’t a horse at all. Instead, it’s an entrant entitled “All other three-year-olds,” which you can bet at odds of 9 to 5.

What this means is that you can go off the board and make a bet on any other three-year-old horse that isn’t listed. This is an admission that, at this point, many of the horses who might be top competitors in the 2021 Kentucky Derby haven’t yet made themselves known. It could be because they haven’t yet started their career or because they just haven’t made an impact in their races.

But the 23 horses who are in that futures pool could very well be the ones to watch during the Derby prep races that will eventually define the field for the 2021 Kentucky Derby. And if you can spot one of these horses as a possible Derby winner, you can really make a mint with a futures bet. Remember that you’ll never get horse racing odds any better than you will right now, so take a good look at the following horse profiles, as we go from the longest to the shortest odds on the futures pool for the 2021 Kentucky Derby.

These odds were provided by the best horse racing betting sites.

Greatest Honour (50-1)

This colt hasn’t yet made his debut in 2021, but he at least ended 2020 well. After three unsuccessful tries, he finally broke through with his maiden victory at Gulfstream Park. It was a race where he was bumped at the start of the race and had to go five-wide on the second turn.

Greatest Honour has been improving with each start, at least according to the speed figures. He also has a trainer in Claude McGaughey III who has a Derby win in his rear view (Orb in 2013). We’ll know more about this colt when he starts facing stakes competition this year.

Olympiad (50-1)

Like a lot of the horses on this list, there a lot of unknowns about this colt. What we do know is that he picked up his maiden victory at Saratoga in September in just his second career race. Even though it was only at seven furlongs, he showed potent late kick.

Unfortunately, that was the last time he raced as a two-year-old, so we haven’t been able to see his development. In trainer Bill Mott, we at least know that he has somebody who knows how to handle stakes horses. But we’ll have to see a lot more from Olympiad before he can be considered another Mott Derby contender in the mold of 2019 upset winner Country House.

Proxy (50-1)

There are some positives to glean from the line of this early 2021 Kentucky Derby long shot. He already has two wins under his belt in Louisiana. And he has already acquitted himself well in graded stakes competition, finishing second in the Lecomte behind Midnight Bourbon, whom we’ll also be looking at in this list.

That second could have been better had Proxy not been bumped early in the race.

The bloodlines are solid, but people might be skeptical of the competition at the Fair Grounds, where he’s been campaigning. A “wait and see” approach is probably wise with this one.

Wipe The Slate (50-1)

Trainer Doug O’Neill already has an impressive record in the Kentucky Derby to which he can point. He saddled a winner in 2012 with I’ll Have Another, then came back and did it again in 2016 with Nyquist. Wipe The Slate might have an outside shot at making it a hat trick if he can progress from where is right now.

First of all, his Dad is Nyquist, so there is success in the pedigree. He also picked up his maiden win in his last start at Santa Anita in decisive fashion. But it remains to be seen how this colt will take to two turns, even though the bloodlines say he should be able to handle it.

Spielberg (30-1)

Leave it to trainer Bob Baffert, who knows all about glitz and glamour, to be in charge of a horse named after the most successful film director of all time. Spielberg already has a little more big-race experience than most in this group. Of the six starts already under his belt, four of them have been for graded stakes, including a pair of Grade 1s.

He picked up his first graded victory in a close win at Los Alamitos in his last race of 2020. Baffert might decide to ease off the throttle with Spielberg to start 2021 after his busy 2020. But the goal will be to have him peaking in May which, of course, this trainer knows how to do better than anybody.

Prime Factor (30-1)

This horse illustrates how, at this point, Kentucky Derby betting is a particularly speculative experience. After all, Prime Factor has only raced once to this point. But it was an auspicious beginning, to be sure.

Back in December, Prime Factor rolled all over a maiden field at Gulfstream Park, winning by just shy of nine lengths, with a sharp speed figure to match. Blowout wins are always a good way to spot horses who are maybe a touch above the competition. But until we see this colt at longer than six furlongs, we won’t know where he stands for sure.

Prate (30-1)

This is another horse getting a look after just one race. Still, when you consider that there will likely be horses in the 2021 Kentucky Derby field that haven’t yet raced at this point, one race can certainly be enough. Especially when you look as good as Prate did.

In a tough post in a 112-horse maiden special weight race at Fair Grounds, Prate overcame a roughed-up start to draw away from the field for a comfortable debut win. Trainer Brad Cox is one of those top trainers who hasn’t yet tasted Derby success. Prate could be pointed in the right direction.

Mutasaabeq (30-1)

We’ve already seen this Shadwell Stable product knocking heads against top-flight competition. He was a third in a Grade 1 at Saratoga and won a Grade 2 at Keeneland on the turf. But he couldn’t follow that up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland, finishing a disappointing tenth despite getting some betting attention (5 to 1).

He showed he wasn’t hung over following that loss, though. In his first start of this year, he was back on the dirt and winning the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream. It looks like Todd Pletcher will have a chance to saddle his third Derby winner.

Midnight Bourbon (30-1)

The key for Midnight Bourbon going forward will be to show that his last start was no fluke. He started his career off well enough, with four of four in the money, including two graded stakes minor awards. But the speed figures weren’t anything too earth-shattering.

In winning the Grade 3 Lecomte last week, however, Midnight Bourbon really stepped up his game. His speed figure took a big leap as he went for a gate-to-wire victory with authority. Now, we’ll see if he can sustain that momentum going forward.

Hot Rod Charlie (30-1)

This is another Doug O’Neill trainee, one whose Derby prospects are based on one out-of-nowhere start. To recap, Hot Rod Charlie hit the board in just one of his first three races last year, two of which were on turf. He barely picked up his maiden win at Santa Anita in his fourth try, winning by a neck.

But O’Neill gave him a shot in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. And lo and behold, Hot Rod Charlie was leading at the eighth pole at 94-1, before coughing up the lead late to Essential Quality for a long-shot second. Now that he’s on the radar, he won’t be sneaking up on anybody anymore.

Fire At Will (30-1)

There is no doubt about the talent here, just about the intent. Fire At Will is coming off three straight victories, the last one being as a 30-1 shot at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. In fact, each of his last two victories, both graded stakes, came at double-digit odds.

That all sounds great. But Fire At Will’s handlers, including trainer Michael Maker Jr. might decide that it ain’t broke, so don’t fix it. In other words, this colt might just stay on the turf, in which case, he won’t even compete in the 2021 Kentucky Derby.

Capo Kane (30-1)

We’ve seen horses initiate in the Philly area before and do well on the biggest stage in racing

Smarty Jones, anyone?

Capo Kane will be trying to recreate that path. He started his career off at Parx (formerly Philadelphia Park), breaking his maiden there in November.

But the big strike for him came when he hustled to Aqueduct and handily won the Jerome on New Year’s Day. He was 6-1 on that day, and it’s likely that he’ll be underestimated going forward. He’ll have to prove his worth in tougher competition before people start to believe in him a bit more.

Caddo River (30-1)

This colt started his career off with a pair of close losses in New York. As a matter of fact, Greatest Honour—whom we’ve already profiled—finished third in both of those races. His maiden win came when he moved down to Kentucky and rolled to a 9 ½-length victory in November.

Caddo River comes from the barn of Brad Cox, so the connections are solid. His breeding is a bit modest, so he’ll likely be flying well below the radar on the futures board. Once he stretches out his distance, we’ll know more of what to expect.

Bezos (20-1)

We’re not sure if this colt will be able to make as much money in his career as his namesake. In fact, we’re not sure of much at all with Bezos. He is the lone first-time starter to be included in this 2021 Kentucky Derby futures pool.

Why such attention to a horse that hasn’t raced yet? Well, its first workout was promising, and it comes from solid stock. But the main reason is that this horse has been the talk of the Bob Baffert barn, and that’s enough to recommend it going forward, even with the lack of experience.

Highly Motivated (20-1)

Trainer Chad Brown is another one of those top conditioners still waiting for his big Derby breakthrough. We’ll need to know what this horse can do at a distance before we can tell where we’re at with him. But his sprints to this point have certainly been impressive.

His last two starts, he won at the shorter span of 6 ½ furlongs. His most impressive feat came in the Nyquist at Keeneland in November, which he won by 4 ¼ lengths, a margin that would have kept getting wider if the race was longer. He has yet to make his 2020 debut, but there is certainly a lot of promise here.

Jackie’s Warrior (20-1)

If you had conducted a poll last October of who would win the 2021 Kentucky Derby, Jackie’s Warrior would certainly have received a lot of votes. At that point, he had won the first four races of his career, all in front-running, decisive fashion. And that included a pair of Grade 1’s in New York.

But he was forced to play a stalking role as the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland. After making the lead, he tired to fourth as a money-burner. This season will let us know whether that race was the fluke or if maybe he was a tad overrated.

Keepmeinmind (20-1)

This colt made a name for himself even before picking up his maiden victory. And his moniker proved to be telling because he kept sneaking up on bettors. In both the Breeders’ Cup Futurity and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he hit the board at long odds.

While that style might not be ideal in terms of winning the Derby, at least it’s an indication he won’t be scared off by the distance.

Mandaloun (20-1)

This is yet another promising three-year-old from the barn of trainer Brad Cox, who seems to be circling the market on 2021 Kentucky Derby contenders. Mandaloun has the chance of being that rare Derby contender who was claimed. That occurred following his second straight career-beginning victory last year, which came in an optional claimer at Churchill.

His first start this year was disappointing in a way in that he finished third as the favorite in the Lecomte. But it was a gritty effort in that he didn’t have the best luck with his positioning on the turns. If his racing luck improves, he looks like he could be in the big picture of Derby contenders.

Senor Buscador (20-1)

Remington Park isn’t the typical starting point for Kentucky Derby contenders. But Senor Buscador would like to be the one who changes that perception. He started his career by going two-for-two there as a two-year old.

As you might expect from a horse from who is a Derby contender, Senor Buscador rolled over that lesser competition. He comes from the Todd Pletcher barn, so it’s not like he’s coming from a newbie. He could be a fun story to watch as we head through the spring.

Concert Tour (15-1)

Three of the four horses remaining on this list come from trainer Bob Baffert, so he is typically stacked with two-year-old talent. Concert Tour also has pedigree going for him, as his father, Street Sense, won the Kentucky Derby back in 2007. He didn’t race at age two, but he looks like he has the talent to make up for lost time.

In his debut at Santa Anita his month, the colt dominated a maiden special weight group as an even-money favorite. That race was only six furlongs, so he won’t have all that much time to get stretched out to Derby distance. But Baffert has won the Derby with horses who were unraced at two before.

Medina Spirit (12-1)

Medina Spirit doesn’t have the big siring and purchase prices that many of the horses here do. But he has Bob Baffert on his side, which will immediately get him some attention. So far, he has chalked up a win and a place in his brief career.

He broke his maiden in December at Los Alamitos, but his first big test came in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes. In that race, he finished second, but he was closing fast on winner (and his stablemate) Life Is Good. That kind of finish could bode well for when he tries for the longer distances at which Triple Crown races are run.

Essential Quality (8-1)

Only twice before has the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner gone on to capture the Kentucky Derby the following year. Last year, we saw how most of the top performers in the 2019 Juvenile struggled all through last year. As a result, there could be a built-in bias against Essential Quality in terms of the odds.

Life Is Good (6-1)

If you guessed anybody else other than Bob Baffert as the trainer of this horse, you haven’t been paying much attention. Life Is Good is certainly on a good trajectory. He followed up a win in his debut in December with a victory at Santa Anita in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes this month.

The worrisome thing is that, in that last race, his stablemate Medina Spirit made up a ton of ground on Life Is Good. And that race was only a mile. Baffert will need to have a plan to coax some extra distance out of this horse, just like he did a year ago with Authentic.

Conclusion

We hope that this article has you prepared for your 2021 Kentucky Derby futures bets. These top contenders still have a long way to go to get to that first Saturday in May. But many have shown that they seem to have the stuff to get it done.