2021 Tour de Romandie Betting Odds and Predictions

On Tuesday, April 27^th, the 74^th edition of the Tour de Romandie gets under way in Oron and spans 685km across the French speaking region of Switzerland before finishing in Fribourg.

This six-day race will feature some of the sport’s most notable names like Geraint Thomas, Richie Porte, Steven Kruijswijk, Rigoberto Uran, Chris Froome, Sepp Kuss, Michael Woods and Peter Sagan.

The Tour de Romandie was cancelled last year due to the pandemic. It was last held in 2019 and won by Primoz Roglic. This race is often considered a final tune-up before the Giro d’Italia.

Tour de Romandie Route

The Tour de Romandie is a six stage race that begins with the traditional prologue individual time trial. This ITT is only 4km in length, but does finish on a climb that’s 1km in length with an 8% grade.

#TDR2021 #TDRNONSTOP Un tracé exigeant. Pour un super costaud! @UCI_cycling @UCIWorldTour Sion-Thyon et contre-la-montre final à Fribourg (après Oron-la-Ville, Aigle-Martigny, La Neuveville-St-Imier, Estavayer-le-Lac en boucle). Show devant. Qui voyez-vous succéder à @rogla ? pic.twitter.com/hwyQ6Cf5HQ

— Tour de Romandie (@TourDeRomandie) April 13, 2021

Stage 1 is a hilly route from Aigle to Martigny and 168km in length. Stages 2 and 3 are also hilly days with lengths of 165km and 168km. These three days are perfect for riders like Sagan, Woods or breakaways.

Stage 4 is the toughest day as it features four smaller climbs before the day’s biggest challenge of Thyon which is 20km in length and averages 7.7% grade with an elevation gain of 4,157 meters. The GC battle will most likely be decided on this day.

Stage 5 is the final stage of the race and features a second individual time trial. However, this ITT is 16.2km in length.

Previous Tour de Romandie Winners

The first Tour de Romandie was held in 1947 and won by Desire Keteleer. Since then, Stephen Roche would go on to hold the most all-time wins with three. There are a dozen other riders who have won this race twice including Primoz Roglic who’s the defending winner.

The following is a list of previous winners dating back to 2009:

• 2009: Roman Kreuziger Liquigas
• 2010: Simon Spilak
• 2011: Cadel Evans
• 2012: Bradley Wiggins
• 2013: Chris Froome
• 2014: Chris Froome
• 2015: Ilnur Zakarin
• 2016: Nairo Quintana
• 2017: Richie Porte
• 2018: Primoz Roglic
• 2019: Primoz Roglic

Tour of Romandie Betting Odds

The following odds are courtesy of online sportsbooks:

• Geraint Thomas (+125)
• Richie Porte (+220)
• Steven Kruijswijk (+800)
• Rohan Dennis (+1000)
• Sepp Kuss (+1400)
• Ion Izagirre (+1600)
• Miguel Angel Lopez (+1600)
• Wilco Kelderman (+2500)
• Jack Haig (+2800)
• Lucas Hamilton (+3300)
• Lennard Kamna (+4000)
• Marc Soler (+4000)
• Michael Woods (+4000)
• Damiano Caruso (+5000)
• Clement Champoussin (+6600)
• Rui Costa (+6600)
• Filippo Ganna (+8000)
• Fausto Masnada (+8000)
• Rigoberto Uran (+8000)
• Patrick Bevin (+10000)
• Marc Hirschi (+10000)
• Chris Froome (+25000)

Tour of Romandie Betting Favorites

According to the best cycling betting sites, the following riders are considered the odds on favorites to win this week’s Tour of Romandie:

Geraint Thomas (+125)

Geraint Thomas will be the co-leader along with Richie Porte for Team Ineos Grenadiers. This will most likely be his last race before the Tour de France in two months.

Thomas last competed at the Volta a Catalunya where he finished 3^rd in the General Classification. His teammates Adam Yates finished first and Richie Porte finished 2^nd. It was a dominant performance for Team Ineos who is expected to do something similar this week.

Geraint Thomas and Owain Doull will be part of Ineos Grenadiers’ team for the Tour de Romandie stage race, which starts on Tuesday 27 April and runs until Sunday 2 May. pic.twitter.com/ZDjMXxIVsP

— BBC Sport Wales (@BBCSportWales) April 20, 2021

Not only does Ineos have the Top 2 GC favorites, but they also have two of the best time trialists in Rohan Dennis and Filippo Ganna.

You can expect those two to light up the prologue and the ITT on Stage 5. However, they won’t be able to hang with the best of the GC riders in the hills and mountains.

Prior to the Volta a Catalunya, Thomas was 24^th at Tirreno-Adriatico, 26^th at Tour de Alpes Maritimes, and 49^th at Etoile de Besseges.

His form looked good at Catalunya, but he was riding in support of Adam Yates. As a leader in this event, I expect Thomas to be one of the best by time it’s all said and done. Stage 4’s finish on Thyon will most likely determine the GC winner as long as none of them crack before then.

This will be the 7^th appearance for Thomas in the Tour de Romandie. His best result came in 2019 when he finished 3^rd. Thomas does have two stage wins in this race with both coming in the time trials.

Richie Porte (+220)

As mentioned, Porte is a co-leader of Ineos and every bit as good of a time trialist as Thomas is. His form in the mountains will most likely determine whether or not he wins the race.

Porte is a former winner of the Tour de Romandie having dominated the field in 2017. However, he only has one stage win. His last appearance came in 2018 where he finished 3^rd overall.

Porte’s last race was the Volta a Catalunya which took place roughly one month ago. He finished 2^nd overall and was 6^th on Stage 2 which was an 18.5km individual time trial. His teammate Rohan Dennis beat him by 34 seconds. Yet, Porte beat Thomas by 13 seconds.

Porte’s only other race this year was Paris-Nice, but he didn’t even finish the first stage.

It will be interesting to see Porte’s form for the Tour de Romandie considering he’s only had one race this season and that was a month ago. Yet, if he looks as good as he did in the Volta a Catalunya then Porte could win this week’s event.

Steven Kruijswijk (+800)

Kruijswijk was my pick to win the Volta a Catalunya, but he showed rather quickly that he wasn’t in good form once they hit the mountains. Yet, in that race, he did finish 5^th in the ITT one second ahead of Porte.

🇨🇭 #TDR2021

Our team for Tour de Romandie👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/xm4uooBBlY

— Team Jumbo-Visma cycling (@JumboVismaRoad) April 26, 2021

Kruijswijk is a solid time trialist and one of the best among the GC riders for the Tour de Romandie. However, if he doesn’t show good form in the hills and mountains then Kruijswijk has no chance of winning this race.

His only other appearance this year came in Paris-Nice where he finished 29^th overall. His best result of the season so far was the 5^th place in the ITT at Catalunya.

This will be his 5^th appearance in the Tour de Romandie. His best result was 6^th in 2018 and 2019 when his team’s leader Primoz Roglic won both years. Now, Kruijswijk will be the leader of Team Jumbo-Visma and will get the support from other riders like Sepp Kuss.

Can Kruijswijk show his Grand Tour form from the last few years or will he end up disappointing again?

Rohan Dennis (+1000)

Rohan Dennis is one of the betting favorites due to his elite time trial skills. As mentioned, the Team Ineos rider won the ITT at Catalunya and is going to be a big favorite for both of the time trials in the Tour de Romandie.

Unfortunately, he won’t be able to hang with the best GC riders in the mountains which is why you can’t take Dennis to win this race.

At Paris-Nice, he finished 45^th overall. At the Volta a Catalunya, he finished 46^th and that was after winning Stage 2.

Furthermore, in four appearances, Dennis has never finished higher than 7^th in the Tour de Romandie. That result came in 2018. His other three finishes were 38^th or worse.

Dennis’ odds are overvalued and should be avoided.

Sepp Kuss (+1400)

Another rider that should be avoided is one that I root for – Sepp Kuss. The American is a very talented climber, but his time trial skills aren’t at a level where he can be considered a favorite to win the Tour de Romandie.

This will be Kuss’ first appearance in the Tour de Romandie and he’s expected to ride in a supporting role for Kruijswijk just like he did at Catalunya.

We can look at that race for evidence of what might happen with Kuss this week. At the Volta a Catalunya, he finished 12^th overall. However, he was 43^rd in the ITT. Furthermore, he wasted time trying to support Kruijswijk or he could’ve finished higher.

Since he’s riding in support of Kruijswijk at the Tour de Romandie, and there are two time trials, it’s hard to imagine that Kuss will crack the Top 10 let alone be a betting favorite like this.

His days as a GC rider will come sooner than later, but not this week. I would avoid Kuss along with Rohan Dennis.

Tour of Romandie Betting Value

Miguel Angel Lopez (+1600)

Nicknamed “Superman,” Lopez will make his debut for Movistar this week. This is his first race of the year as he hasn’t competed since crashing out of the Giro d’Italia last October.

Miguel Angel Lopez to make Movistar debut at Tour de Romandie. Find more here: https://t.co/2Y9gg8nbwt#TDR2021 pic.twitter.com/QvVdOtgcyg

— Cycling Today (@CyclingTodayEn) April 26, 2021

Lopez’s 2020 season was highlighted by a 5^th place result in the Criterium du Dauphine and a 6^th place in the Tour de France. However, he did win Stage 17 in the TDF with an impressive summit finish ahead of Roglic and Pogacar who ended up 1^st and 2^nd overall for the 2020 Tour de France.

Lopez had spent the last six years with Astana, but moved over to Movistar where he will be the leader for most races like the Tour de Romandie.

Lopez has one career appearance in the Tour de Romandie and that came in 2016. Unfortunately, he didn’t finish the race after exiting on the final stage.

If Lopez is in good form, he will be one of the favorites for this race. Movistar has surrounded him with some talent especially Marc Soler who will be his super domestique.

I really like Lopez’s value. He’s also my pre-race pick to win on Stage 4’s mountain finish.

Wilco Kelderman (+2500)

Borah-Hansgrohe will be one of the teams to watch in the Tour de Romandie. Not only do they have Peter Sagan who could win at least one stage in this race, but they also have Lennard Kamna who is a rising star on the bike.

With that said, the team’s top rider for the Tour de Romandie will be Wilco Kelderman. The 30 year old is a solid GC rider who finished 3^rd in last year’s Giro d’Italia.

This year, his best result came in the Volta a Catalunya where he finished 5^th. His teammate Kamna finished 6^th.

Kelderman has four previous appearances in the Tour de Romandie with his best result coming in 2013 when he finished 5^th. His last appearance in this race was 2017 and he finished 7^th.

Team Ineos, Jumbo-Visma, and Movistar will get all of the attention this week, but watch out for Borah. They could be a sneaky squad with riders who can win stages and possibly even finish on the podium by time it’s all said and done.

Rigoberto Uran (+6600)

I’m a little bit surprised that Uran’s odds are this high. He would’ve been my longshot pick, but I actually think he offers some value this week.

Uran will be the sole leader of an EF Education squad which has put together a strong supporting cast that includes American cyclists Tejay Van Garderen and Neilson Poweless.

Rigoberto’s last appearance came in the Volta a Catalunya where he finished 52^nd overall. He was not in good form. With a month of training, I expect Uran to be significantly better in the Tour de Romandie than when we last saw him.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Uran flirting with a Top 5 result. With a little luck, he could even flirt with a podium finish.

Top Longshot to Win the Tour de Romandie

I highly doubt that Chris Froome (+25000) will even finish in the Top 25, let alone win the race. He’s still working back from a horrible crash that has seemingly stripped him of his elite form.

#TotA done ✅ Short break before @TourDeRomandie next week!

The grind continues 👊💪 @teamisraelsun #TotA

📸 @bettiniphoto pic.twitter.com/5hvean0MI6

— Chris Froome (@chrisfroome) April 23, 2021

In fact, Froome acknowledges that he’s not back to his former level and admits that this has been a longer journey than expected:

“I’m still training just as hard, I’m putting in the hours. I’m not seeing the same numbers in training as I did previously, but I’ve just got to trust in the process. I’ve got to trust that working hard will bear results eventually. Obviously, I had the big accident a couple of years ago and I still haven’t come back to my former level since then.

So it’s been a longer journey than I expected but I’m certainly hopeful that if I keep following the process, keep working hard, keep doing the altitude training camps, and putting in all the work that’s required, eventually things are going to click for me and I’m going to wake up feeling more like my old self again.”

Froome’s 2021 season has been a bit disappointing for longtime fans of his like myself. He finished 47^th in the UAE Tour, 81^st in the Volta a Catalunya, and 93^rd in the Tour of the Alps which was his last race.

We all hope that Froome can somehow find his old form, but it’s looking increasingly unlikely. Nevertheless, he’s still a great ambassador for the sport and a true professional.

Who Will Finish on the Podium?

The following betting odds are for each rider’s chances of finishing in the Top 3:

• Geraint Thomas (-250)
• Richie Porte (-120)
• Steven Kruijswijk (+200)
• Rohan Dennis (+225)
• Sepp Kuss (+300)
• Ion Izagirre (+350)
• Miguel Angel Lopez (+450)

As mentioned above, I would avoid Dennis and Kuss. I don’t trust Kruijswijk until I see him on Stage 4’s mountain finish.

I believe that Thomas and Porte could both finish on the podium. I also see that last podium spot going to Lopez or Izagirre.

I didn’t mention Igazirre above, but the 32 year old Spaniard could be a rider to watch in the Tour de Romandie. He was 3^rd in this race in 2016 and 5^th in 2017.

This year, he finished 3^rd in Paris-Nice and 10^th in The Tour of the Basque Country where he won a stage as well.

The best betting value of this group is with Lopez. If he’s on top form then he could win the entire race.

Who Will Win the 2021 Tour de Romandie?

My Top 5 riders are Geraint Thomas, Richie Porte, Steven Kruijswijk, Ion Izagirre and Miguel Lopez.

Of those five, I believe Thomas, Porte and Lopez will finish on the podium. However, I can’t decide between Porte and Thomas as to who will win this race.

Both are very close in time trial skills and climbing mountains. With that said, I am leaning towards Geraint Thomas. He’s about due for a win especially before any of the Grand Tours where he will most likely be relegated to supporting Yates, Bernal or Carapaz.

Porte was brought in to be a support rider, but Thomas used to be a team leader for the Grand Tours. Whoever has the best legs between the two Ineos riders on Stage 4 will win this race. I’m taking Geraint Thomas to be that rider.