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3 High-Value Bets You Haven’t Considered

3-high-value-bets-you-haven’t-considered

As sports gamblers, we’re all looking for the perfect combination of high value and reasonable risk. Betting on a favorite at -1200 doesn’t seem like a great value, and betting on an underdog at +1100 seems like a losing proposition overall.

The trick is finding the bets in which the monetary risk and the likelihood of winning are both reasonable. When you place a bet that allows you to win more money than you risk, your bankroll goes farther. Because this is what everyone is looking for, books work hard to make these options challenging to find.

With that being said, if you’re willing to go off the beaten path, you can find some bets that have surprisingly good value. These bet types offer an option to bettors who are looking to stack the odds in their favor.

1 – MLB Run Line Bets

Betting on Major League Baseball can be risky. Upon first glance, the games that have a good return for your wager often feature teams that are relatively unlikely to win. On the flip side, betting on favorites doesn’t have much value.

For example, on any given night there are half a dozen games that require a bet of $150 or more to win $100 if you bet on the favorite. Profitable bettors know that this isn’t a favorable proposition, especially when you consider the unpredictable nature of baseball.


The solution? Run lines.

If you’re unfamiliar with this type of bet don’t worry, it’s easy to learn. Run lines function like a teaser bet because you can “choose” your spread. The reason I find them to be a good option is that they can even up moneylines without taking on a great deal more of risk.

Team A might be favored at a moneyline of -200. Baseball has a notoriously high rate of unpredictability as even the worst teams in the league win 60 or more times per year.

In short, anyone can win on any night. Nobody is going to be surprised. This differs from football or basketball, where the chances of a first-place team losing to a last-place team are relatively slim.

When you utilize the run line, betting on favorites is back in play. Small spreads can bring moneylines back up to even. Plus, make it a little easier to win without risking enormous amounts for half the payoff.

If Team A is a -240 favorite, playing a small run line of -1.5 might allow you to get the -240 around -130. Bump it up to a -2.5 spread, and you’ll likely be looking at around +150.

Think about it. If a team has a huge advantage in a game (think of a first-tier team with their ace on the mound facing a bad team), you’re expecting a win. Now, the only way you can lose your bet is if the team wins by just one run.

The best part of these plays is that even if you lose, you’re not paying out a lot more money than you would have won. Taking a huge favorite to win might mean risking $200 to win $100, which I’m philosophically opposed to doing. But if you concede just 1.5 runs, it’s not a large amount when you consider that to win you already need one.

To summarize, betting on a favorite to win by two or more runs gives you nearly twice as good of a return on your money as betting on a favorite to win by one. In my opinion, if you’re picking a team to win by one, you might as well pick them to win by two and enjoy the massive value difference.

2 – Obscure Events

As you might expect, sportsbooks focus the majority of their attention on events that are going to receive a high volume of bets. This means that you’ll often find “tougher” lines and spreads on games that receive the most action.

I wouldn’t suggest ignoring popular betting events (gambling is supposed to be fun, after all). However, you can often find greater value in looking at the games the crowd isn’t paying attention to or betting on.

Before I continue, it’s important to keep one thing in mind when considering betting on obscure sports: make sure you do some research beforehand. You don’t need to necessarily become an expert in all events you want to bet (though it doesn’t hurt), but don’t bet completely blind. Go to roulette wheels for that.

Betting on less-popular events doesn’t have to mean switching over to Canadian curling or anything like that. It simply means bet on things that don’t receive a ton of action. That can even mean popular sports.

For example, major UFC fights might see tens of millions of dollars of bets coming in, but betting on fights in the undercard can be a high-value play. Taking some time to research the lesser-known fighters will give you some indication of which underdogs have a good chance to win. If you’re able to go 2 for 5 and pick the right underdogs, you could come out ahead.

Another interesting play that you’ve probably been ignoring is college hockey. Very few handicappers wager on these events, and thus, value is present. When betting on these games, consider the puck line, which is similar to the run line in baseball.

The key to being successful in obscure sports betting is to find a sport that doesn’t receive a lot of betting action but has adequate information available. If you’re in the business of winning money through the old adage of “hard work pays off,” you can find tremendous value where you least expect it.

3 – Whatever Side the Public Isn’t Betting

If you’re a veteran real money sports gambler, this probably isn’t news to you. The “public bias” is a reality and can give you a huge advantage if you’re willing to stick to the philosophy.

Not to get too psychological, but even when we’re trying to be impartial, analytical gamblers, we’re still human. We have a tendency to lean towards betting on favorites because hey, they’re more likely to win the game. This gives books an invitation to push the envelope and create spreads and moneylines that result in a bigger house profit if the majority of the money is on the favorite.

Although the public does tend to lean on the favorite, there are other bets that receive more attention as well. Big-name teams, such as the Cowboys, Yankees, or Lakers, typically receive a good deal of public money. It’s mostly because their large fanbases don’t want to bet against their team.

In addition to team bets, the public has a tremendous bias towards betting the over. Again, it makes sense from a psychological standpoint. We tend to root for scoring, and the high-scoring games stick out in our minds more than the defensive battles.

You might be wondering if there is actual data to back the “bet against the public” philosophy that extends beyond the reasoning that “those sportsbooks seem to be staying in business somehow.” The answer is yes, there is data, but a particular source does not necessarily validate it.

The most common number I’ve seen on the matter suggests that betting the underdog or the under will give you a 1% to 3% better chance to win. Not to mention the payouts are higher when you do win.

Conclusion

As sports fans, we’ve been conditioned to think that winning is the most important thing, no matter the cost. As sports bettors, it’s imperative to distance yourself from this mindset to become profitable in the long-run.

Even when you win a majority of plays, if you’re consistently betting on moneylines and taking favorites, you’ll still end up in the red. A good betting strategy, just like good investing, relies on choosing value.

Michael Stevens

Michael Stevens has been researching and writing topics involving the gambling industry for well over a decade now and is considered an expert on all things casino and sports betting. Michael has been writing for GamblingSites.org since early 2016. …

View all posts by Michael Stevens

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