4 NFL Betting Hacks You Might Be Overlooking

Consistently winning money betting on the NFL is one of the most difficult things to do in all of sports gambling. With the mind-boggling amount of action that comes in each Sunday (and Thursday, and Monday), sportsbooks have a major incentive to cash in while they can.

The good news? A select few do find the NFL season profitable every year – but it takes some “outside the box” thinking. In this article, I’ll go over the top 4 NFL betting “hacks” you might be forgetting about.

1 – Live Bet When the Underdog Scores First

As much as everyone wants to get their plays in and then sit back and watch, sometimes it’s best to wait just a little bit longer before making your bets. In fact, this can be a great way to actually get a deal on the odds.

Here’s a type of bet that I’ve used numerous times in the past. I’ve had such success with it that I think it’s my favorite type of bet to make when playing NFL games. An example of this might be:

The Saints are -6 playing against the Dolphins. The moneyline favors the Saints, with the final number before kickoff at -210. The Dolphins get out to an early lead in the game, scoring a touchdown on their first drive. Now that the game is 7-0 early in the first quarter, the moneyline odds shift to -115. That represents a great opportunity to jump on board at highly discounted price.

I’m a fan of taking underdogs on the moneyline, but if you can get a favorite at a huge discount, that’s hard to beat. Remember that the public tends to overreact when live betting, so you can find a great deal of value if you’re able to recognize that one score does not necessarily mean the game is going to turn into a huge upset.

The tricky thing with live betting is that you really should be watching the game if you’re making a live bet. However, if there’s a huge underdog who scores first and dramatically changes the live betting odds, take advantage of the situation by putting a bet in before the comeback begins.

The bottom line is that one score, especially early in the game, isn’t going to determine the eventual outcome – especially if two teams are not close to being evenly-matched. It will, however, shift the odds significantly. If you can take a heavy favorite on the moneyline at -150 or more, that’s a bet worth taking.

2 – Lay Off If You Don’t Have a Feel

Sometimes the best bets are the ones you don’t take. Just about everyone who has ever looked over the Sunday slate of games and tried to identify winners has experienced the feeling of looking at a game and flipping a mental coin to make a pick. Don’t do this.

It’s undeniable that there are some games that stand out on the schedule where you instantly have a feeling one way or the other. These are the only games you should be betting (okay fine, you can make some exceptions for prime time games when there’s nothing else on).

Believe me, betting on the NFL is not going away. This means that there is no reason why you should be risking your money on a game between two bad teams where you don’t have a read nor any interest in even watching.

My advice? When looking at the schedule during that ritualistic Sunday morning routine, circle the games you have a great feel on, and cross out the ones that are neither entertaining games nor good betting options.

It’s extremely difficult to win more than half of the games you bet on – don’t make it even harder by betting on the games you don’t feel strongly about either way. The more selective you are, the more success you’ll have.

3 – Bet the Other Way When the Public is Overwhelmingly on One Side

Okay, okay – yes, this could just simply say “fade the public,” but that doesn’t fully explain what I mean here. I’m specifically referring to the games when public money is overwhelmingly on one side or the other, meaning 75% or more.

Let me get the obvious statement out of the way by mentioning sportsbooks and online betting sites are raking in millions of dollars each year on the bets where the public is heavily on one side. While there are going to be some occasions when the public does actually get it right and the house takes a bath, but these instances are undoubtedly the exception and not the rule.

Some bettors subscribe to the theory of fading the public at every turn, and while there is a good argument to be made for this strategy, it’s important to recognize that unless you’re betting on every single game it’s a little more nuanced than that.

The main takeaway here is that when there’s a ton of action on a game – as there typically is on any NFL game – the sportsbooks are looking to capitalize. Don’t be a victim of a spread that looks too good to be true, because it most cases it probably is.

4 – Moneyline Underdog If Spread Is Under 3.5

The live betting strategy that I talked about in the first section of this article is the one that has resulted in the most success for me through the years, but this one comes in as a close second. And it should be mentioned that unlike the live betting plays, this doesn’t require you to be tuned in to the game.

Each week there are a few games that could be considered a toss-up in terms of who will win outright. These games usually have a spread of around 3.5 points or less. There’s no denying it helps to have a few extra points on your side, but a better option is out there: the moneyline.

Betting on the moneyline – which means you’ll need an outright win in order to cash in your bet – can sound like a daunting or risky proposition. With that being said, it’s important to consider the implications it has for your overall, long-term betting strategy.

In a game where the spread is -3 (or around there), the moneyline for the underdog is probably going to be around +125 to +160. Yes, there is an increased risk of losing your bet if you don’t take the points, but think about the implications in terms of the money:

If you’re betting on a game at +3 (-110) you have to bet $100 to win about $91. If you instead take the moneyline at +140 (for example), you’d bet $100 to win $140. That’s a $50 difference in winnings and all it costs you is three points. If you choose the spread over the moneyline, you’re basically betting the underdog losing by less than 3 points.

There are three potential outcomes in the scenario I just laid out above.

1. The first outcome is a win and cover by the favorite. This would mean that whether or not you took the points or the moneyline, you’re still going to lose.
2. The second outcome is the favorite winning by less than 3. In this case, you’d win if you took the points, but not the moneyline.
3. The third outcome is the underdog winning the game outright. If this happens, you’d win either way, but you’d win 50% more if you bet on the moneyline.

In two out of the three outcomes, whether or not you took the moneyline or spread isn’t going to impact whether or not you win or lose. If you decide to go with the spread over the moneyline, you’re basically saying that option 2 is the one you think is going to happen. It’s entirely possible that you end up being right, but predicting a team to lose, but by less than 3, is a narrow window.

Sportsbooks make money when people look for easy wins (think buying points, teasers, moneyline favorites, etc.). Do the opposite by taking on a little more risk and you’ll end up with the opposite result of most sports gamblers.

Conclusion

Betting on the NFL is never going to be easy. In this sport more than any other, being tolerant of some extra risk is going to pay off for you in the long run.


The next time you make your NFL picks, keep this list in mind – your bankroll will thank you.