4 Reasons to Not Bet on NCAA Basketball

For some, college basketball season is the most exciting time of the year. For most, that excitement for the sport is usually relegated to late February through early April.

With the high volume of games and action throughout the week, it’s easy to see why bettors see potential in betting on college basketball. I don’t disagree, necessarily, but there’s a catch—stay away from blue bloods.

Teams like Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, and all the other historic programs might be fun to watch, but they aren’t fun to bet on.

In this article, I’ll lay out four reasons to stay away from betting on these basketball games.

1 – The Players Change Too Frequently

I want to go on record saying I believe that high school basketball players should be able to go directly to the NBA. Not only is it the best path for the athlete, but it would undoubtedly make betting a whole lot easier.

Each season, it seems like fans have to learn an entirely new roster of players. Gone are the days of legendary college basketball players who battled it out with rivals for three or four years. This not only robs us, as fans, of compelling storylines and entertainment, but it makes games nearly impossible to predict.

Imagine trying to learn how an NBA team plays together as a unit if the top two players left after every season. Or imagine trying to figure out which way to bet when the top two players on a team were rookies each year.

This problem isn’t necessarily a college basketball problem all the way through; it’s really only a problem for the top-tier teams who are able to land the nation’s most highly-rated recruits. That’s the reason why this article isn’t an indictment on betting on NCAA basketball as a whole, but rather, a suggestion to stay away from risking money on such unproven teams and players.

No matter what level of basketball you’re looking at, it takes a period of time before players develop the chemistry to have a consistent performance night in and night out. As we’ve seen in their notable lack of championships, teams that frequently have one-and-done players just aren’t able to put it together in such a short amount of time.

If you’re looking to make money gambling on the NCAA, you should focus on some of the more overlooked leagues which have teams that return starters at a higher rate. These teams are much more consistent and easy to follow, and their outcomes—while not predictable—are typically not as volatile.

2 – Mid-Majors Are Where It’s At

Casual sports fans aren’t going to be watching the Big Sky or Horizon League basketball matchups on Saturday afternoon, and that’s a good thing.

Generally speaking, the less action that a sportsbook receives on certain teams, the less likely it is that they’ll put a major emphasis on creating perfect odds. That means there’s a great opportunity to take advantage of mid-major conferences that get passed over by the people who would rather watch Duke than a directional school they’re not familiar with.

As a sports bettor, your focus should be on learning these types of leagues inside and out. If you are able to get familiar with a particular mid-major league, it could be a highly-profitable component of your betting strategy for years to come.

My advice would be to find two or three mid-major leagues to follow throughout the season. It might even be beneficial to select a half-dozen teams across those three leagues and get to know the rosters on a deeper level.

Once you have some knowledge of these leagues, at worst, you’re already a step ahead of most of the betting public. At best, you’ll have a bit of an edge over the sportsbooks, meaning the potential to win money is there in a way that you just won’t find in other areas of sports betting.

Study up before the season starts by visiting various blog sites surrounding some mid-major leagues and see if you can’t get off to a hot start. While the rest of the nation is busy watching 8 freshman battle it out in a sloppy ACC matchup between two blue bloods, you’ll be starting a winning run that could last throughout conference tournament time.

3 – The Sportsbooks Focus on Big Time Games

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting that people should stop watching blue blood programs compete. In fact, this is where we get the first look at the nation’s top players and future NBA stars. I’m simply saying that the opportunity to make money through gambling just isn’t the same as mid-majors.

Sportsbooks know that the majority of regular sports fans have a much higher chance of tuning into and betting on games that feature the teams they’ve been watching throughout their lives. That means a Duke vs. UNC game is likely to draw much more attention, even if the general public knows nothing about either team’s current roster.

How does this impact you as a bettor? First, you aren’t going to find any holes in the odds. The stakes are simply too high for the house. This is a major reason why many sharps, or experienced sports bettors, advise against playing games that are going to receive a lot of action and opt for the games that might have some openings in the odds.

Simply put, there is just too much noise surrounding major college basketball matchups to make gain an edge. Watch them all you want, but if you want to feel confident in your bets, you’re better off staying away from these games.

4 – The Teams Change Significantly

As a sports gambler, inconsistency is not your friend. If you can’t count on a team to perform a certain way on a regular basis, there’s absolutely no way to make money betting.

Obviously, teams are going to have on and off nights, but should maintain some level of consistency throughout the year.

I would argue that there is not a more inconsistent team than a blue blood college basketball team. As mentioned earlier in this article, the players on these teams are coming together for the first time. They’ve gone from being the best player in their state in high school, to the third best player on their own team in college—this can cause tension.

It simply takes a long time for chemistry to develop when teams have big egos to manage. And I don’t say that as a slight to the players or coaches on these particular teams; it’s just reality.

Throughout the course of the season, teams will undergo massive amounts of growth and development as a unit. The team that you’ll see on the floor in the first few weeks of the season will be nearly unrecognizable from the one that will be playing in the tournament in March.

The nature of college basketball’s top programs in today’s environment is the inevitability of significant change. While this might be great as a fan of these teams, it’s certainly not something that most bettors would consider to be an advantage.

If you are someone who is a big fan of the top-tier college basketball teams and you want to bet on them, perhaps it’s best to wait until late in the season—or the postseason—in order to feel confident that you know what to expect. Early in the season it’s simply too, to use the word again, volatile to predict.

Conclusion

If you asked any group of people whether or not they think college basketball should abandon the one-and-done requirement, my guess is that sports bettors would be first in line to give an emphatic “yes!”

After spending decades as one of the most interesting betting prospects, college basketball has become impossible to predict at the highest level.

The good news? The mid-majors provide plenty of opportunity, albeit on a smaller stage. Get to know these teams and you just might profit enough to risk it all on the blue bloods in the tournament.