5 Early Overreactions for NBA Bettors

The first month of the 2020-2021 NBA season has come and gone in the blink of an eye. Left in its wake are a slew of hastily-formed opinions threatening to morph into overreactions.

At this point, most teams have played around 15 games, which is a large enough sample size for most sports bettors. Never mind the fact that a majority of the season lies ahead.

While it’s still too early to start speaking in absolutes, there is plenty to discuss and even overreact to. Now that the NBA is operating outside of the bubble, day-to-day results are impacted. Because of that, winning money on the NBA is becoming more difficult for the gambling public.

That, combined with several significant injuries, free-agency moves, and blockbuster trades, makes for a crazy month of basketball. Certain results are likely due to a short offseason and some early-season growing pains. Others might be more damning, but only time will tell.

Here is some of the major NBA news we have reported on since the start of the 2021 season:

• Markelle Fultz Tears ACL
• Thomas Bryant Suffered Torn ACL
• Nets Acquire James Harden
• CJ McCollum Fractures Foot

Here are five early overreactions for NBA Bettors.

1 ‒ Miami’s Bubble Run Was an Anomaly

The Miami Heat, which represented the Eastern Conference in the 2020 NBA Finals, is off to a pedestrian start to the season. Sitting at 6-7, the Heat currently sit outside of the playoff picture in the East.

No one can deny the impressive nature of Miami’s run in the Orlando bubble, a run that found them competing for the title. However, many experts questioned whether the run was a fluke made possible by the season’s strange circumstances. The Heat’s start has done little to dispel that theory.

Without a second glance, it might seem like the Heat did in fact play above their means last year.

Could Jimmy Butler’s heroics, clutch shooting of Tyler Herro, and the star-caliber play of Bam Adebayo turn out to be an anomaly?

It’s unfair and far too early to turn the page on the Heat before taking a better look.

The Heat, together with the Los Angeles Lakers, had the shortest offseason in the league. Additionally, Jimmy Butler has appeared in just six of Miami’s 13 games due to an ankle injury and safety protocols.

The team as a whole is struggling on defense and is among the league leaders in turnovers. All signs point to sloppy play that is likely a byproduct of a two-month offseason.

Miami might not repeat as Eastern Conference Champions, but they’re significantly better than a sub .500 team.

2 ‒ The Lakers Can Win Whenever They Want

While the 2020 Eastern Conference champs might be struggling out of the gate, their Western Conference counterparts and the 2020 NBA Finals champions certainly aren’t.

The Los Angeles Lakers (11-4), are picking up right where they left off in 2020. Through 15 games, it seems like the reigning NBA Champions haven’t even broken a sweat.

Pre-season rumblings made it seem like the Lakers could cruise through the early portion of its schedule. Like Miami, the Lakers didn’t have the luxury of a semi-normal offseason.

However, the Lakers—specifically its front office—made the most of it. It’s hard to poke holes in a team led by future Hall-of-Famers LeBron James and Anthony Davis. But if the Lakers had a weakness, it was a result of a lack of depth.

Recognizing that deficiency, the Lakers bolstered its roster by acquiring Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell, and Wesley Matthews. Los Angeles also signed Kyle Kuzma and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to extensions.

That depth has already started to prove beneficial to the Lakers. Los Angeles currently occupies the 1 seed, even though James and Davis are averaging just 32 minutes a game.

If LA continues to play this well without running its superstars into the ground, it’s hard to imagine that anyone can stand in their way.

3 ‒ Young Superstars Are Regressing

The rise of Luka Doncic and the sustained success of Giannis Antetokounmpo has basketball fans feeling excited about the future of the NBA.

Both Doncic and Antetokounmpo came into the season as legitimate MVP candidates. While that hasn’t changed through a month of action, both players have been the targets of a fair share of scrutiny.

The Dallas Mavericks are 7-7, good for ninth in a stacked Western Conference. Doncic leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists while nearly averaging a triple-double.

However, his video game-like statistics don’t always translate to wins. After a recent loss in which Doncic finished with a triple-double, Doncic told media members he was playing selfishly.

The 21-year-old has a tremendous amount of pressure on his shoulders and is still listed as the favorite to win MVP (+450). A 7-7 start isn’t ideal, but Dallas’ future is bright.

Dallas’ second-best player, Kristaps Porzingis, is back in the mix and rounding into form. In a league dominated by super teams, it’s unrealistic to assume Doncic can carry a team to the playoffs by himself. Porzingis’ presence on the court should take some of the pressure off Doncic.

On the other side of the league, reigning-MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo’s game is starting to show cracks. Throughout his career Antetokounmpo has proven time and time again that he is one of the best players in the league.

At times, he’s even looked like one of the greatest basketball players of all time. The only thing stopping him from reaching that next echelon is his jump shot.

Antetokounmpo is having another productive season, and is listed at +700 to repeat as MVP, trailing only Doncic and Kevin Durant. However, his shooting woes continue to plague him. Now it seems they have followed him to the free-throw line.

The Greek Freak’s 3-point percentage is sitting around a less than stellar 30%. More alarming than his performance beyond the arc is his free throw percentage, which is a career-worst 58%. The Bucks superstar is obviously one of the top talents in the league, but he must overcome his yips at the free-throw line.

4 ‒ The Knicks Will Make the Playoffs

Despite being one of the most iconic franchises in the NBA, the New York Knicks haven’t done anything significant in decades.

But things might be looking up for the league’s favorite punching bag. Instead of looking like its normal, dysfunctional self, New York is carrying itself like a professional team.

Led by its new coach Tom Thibodeau, the Knicks are off to an 8-8 start. Its young core of Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, and RJ Barrett seem much more cohesive than previous years.

Whether or not this quality of play is sustainable remains to be seen. As it stands, New York is holding down the sixth seed in the East and is listed at +270 to make the playoffs. That bet might be worth looking into, especially if that number gains a little more value in the coming weeks.

5 ‒ Steph Curry Is a Legitimate MVP Candidate

The NBA is more exciting when Steph Curry is on the court. Curry missed nearly the entire 2020 season due to injury but is starting to get back to his old ways. It seems as if some basketball fans and sports betting enthusiasts alike forgot how dynamic Curry truly is.

He’s averaging 28 points per game, good for third in the NBA, and is shooting over 37% from beyond the arc. It’s tough not to overreact to seeing Curry back on the court, especially after he led the Warriors to an upset win over the Lakers earlier this week.

Due to the West’s competitive nature, Golden State will likely finish somewhere between the 6th and 10th seed. The only way that Steph, listed at +1000, can make a case for MVP is by leading the Warriors back to the postseason.

Even then, that most likely won’t be enough to overtake the likes of Doncic, Durant, and the Greek Freak.

Conclusion

After just a month of NBA action, it’s still too early to overreact to what the gambling public has seen so far. But it’s still worth acknowledging what certain teams and players have shown us.

The reigning champs look like the best team in the league, while the team they beat in the 2020 NBA Finals look like a shell of themselves.

Meanwhile, two of the league’s best young players might be putting up impressive stats, but they must address certain issues. If Giannis can’t get over his free throw yips, he’s unlikely to repeat as MVP.

One of the league’s biggest surprises is the Knicks playing competent basketball in 2021. If they continue to play to this level, they may very well make the playoffs for the first time since 2013.

Finally, as great as it is to see Steph back on the court, it might be a stretch to think that he has a legitimate chance to win MVP. That is, unless he pulls off a herculean effort and wills the Warriors to a playoff run.