It’s November 2, which means Election Day is less than 24 hours away. Millions of Americans have already cast their ballots in advance of November 3, but there will still be millions more that wait until decision day to make their voices heard.
Regardless, the next few days should be fascinating for a variety of reasons. Donald Trump staged an improbable victory over Hillary Clinton nearly four years ago.
Does he have enough support left to defy the odds again this year? Or will prognostications prove accurate in predicting a victory for former vice president Joe Biden?
There are plenty of ways to wager on the election, as if the stakes weren’t already high enough. You can place bets on a number of political props and futures at several of our highest-rated political betting sites.
As was the case four years ago, oddsmakers believe in the Democratic candidate’s chances to win on Tuesday. However, betting on Biden may not be the wisest endeavor at this point. Here are a few reasons not to bet on Biden to win the 2020 election.
1. No Profit Potential
While not all political betting sites see the race the same way, there is certainly a theme among them when it comes to Biden’s chances of winning.
For example:
While Biden’s odds are understandable, you’re getting very little bang for your buck if you do place this bet. A $100 wager on Biden’s -180 odds at Bovada net you just over $55 in profit if he does wind up dethroning Trump. Polls indicate Biden should be favored, but many also expect this to be a hotly-contested election.
If you think the race is truly a toss-up, betting on Biden at near -200 odds makes almost no sense whatsoever. Either find a site that offers both candidates around even-money, or avoid the bet altogether.
2. Polls Aren’t Always Right
You surely remember the lead-up to the 2016 election, when everyone seemed sure that Clinton would emerge victorious. Trump’s bizarre campaign surely couldn’t actually result in a win, right? Right!?
Well, we know what happened next. Trump won Florida. Then he won North Carolina. Then he won Ohio. Then, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania all turned red. Suddenly, what looked like a surefire Clinton victory was turning into an improbable Trump triumph.
Much to Fivey’s chagrin—or perhaps delight—Biden keeps oscillating between like 89.9% (“favored”) and 90.1% (“clearly favored”) in our forecast with every random poll we add. (And boy have there been some random polls today.)https://t.co/ajG88SznSA pic.twitter.com/FdOT1ODMe7
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 2, 2020
In the end, many of the polls experts relied on ahead of the 2016 election proved to be incorrect. Trump didn’t win by a large margin at all, but a win is a win. Clinton leading the polls wound up meaning absolutely nothing once Americans began to cast their ballots.
As a result, it’s fair to question whether Biden’s lead in current polling is trustworthy. It’s logical that Biden would be favored given Trump’s relative unpopularity and the huge expected voter turnout numbers, but nothing is certain. If you bet on Clinton at even bigger minus-money odds four years ago, you know all poll numbers should be taken with a fairly large grain of salt.
3. Biden Isn’t a Hugely Popular Candidate
Generally speaking, people like Joe Biden. He presents himself as the down-to-earth everyman to whom many around the country can relate. Biden has dealt with all sorts of adversity over the course of his life, but he has managed to enjoy a long, successful political career in spite of it.
While Biden has better favorability numbers than Clinton did heading into her election, Biden is still no Barack Obama. Obama essentially cruised to back-to-back election wins in 2008 and 2012 as one of the most popular political voices in recent history. To this day, Obama still enjoys immense support.
Biden has tried to ride Obama’s coattails during this campaign, but the 76-year-old just doesn’t have the same presence that Obama does. While this election may set new records for turnout, much of that turnout will come as a result of voters eagerly voting for or against Trump.
Trump is the most polarizing figure on the planet these days. His presence in the race is the primary reason for many Americans’ decision to vote one way or the other.
Biden is just…there. He’s the Democratic candidate, so he’s the one that stands to benefit from Trump’s own unpopularity. Many Americans will be voting against Trump as opposed to voting for Biden. While that stands to benefit Biden in the end, the fact that he isn’t a particularly galvanizing force for the electorate could be something that comes back to haunt the Democratic Party on Election Day.
4. Electoral System Favors Republicans
Trump was able to win the 2016 election because of the Electoral College. Clinton wound up earning around three million more votes than Trump did nationwide, but Trump ascended to the presidency because he picked up narrow wins in the states he absolutely had to win.
States like Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin wound up tipping the scales in favor of the Republican. You can argue until you’re blue in the face about whether the US should still employ the Electoral College system, but it’s what we have for now.
Biden is a -700 favorite at MyBookie to win the popular vote. If the country elected presidents based on the national popular vote, Biden would be a lock to win. Because the Electoral College gives Trump more wriggle room, though, we’re looking at a much tighter margin in the actual race.
If Trump wins the same states he won last time around, he can retain his spot in the White House. Polls are close in many of those battleground states. So, Biden can win the popular vote by an even larger margin than Clinton did and it won’t do him any good. Because the system is the way it is, Trump has a better chance than he otherwise would to win the election by a hair.
You can bet on the Electoral College results by the state as well. Below you’ll find a complete list of betting odds based on region to help you place your wagers.
5. Trump Will Get Litigious
Trump knows he’s losing the race. He has almost no hope of flipping any state that voted for Clinton in 2016, which means he desperately needs to recapture his 2016 magic in those aforementioned swing states. With polls looking unfavorable, though, the president has already said that he plans to fight the election results in court.
Just before the election, the Republican-led Senate crammed another right-winger onto the Supreme Court. With the addition of Amy Coney Barrett, conservatives now have a 6-3 ideological advantage over liberals on the highest court in the land. So, if Trump winds up challenging election results in certain states and the case winds up landing at the feet of SCOTUS, there is a decent chance that a majority of Justices wind up siding with the Republican in the White House.
News: Our Office prevailed in lawsuit brought by @realDonaldTrump campaign and @NVGOP to stop Clark County’s mail ballot processing.
I am immensely proud of the @NevadaAG Office for protecting Nevada’s safe and secure elections and our right to vote. Statement to come.
— NV Attorney General (@NevadaAG) November 2, 2020
The Republicans already have a number of other lawsuits pending in an attempt to invalidate votes in crucial states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Texas. If some of these cases go in favor of Trump, results that look favorable for Biden may suddenly be flipped upside-down. As a result, there is a non-zero chance that Biden’s path to victory gets more complicated in the legal system.
With much of the judiciary potentially backing Trump, Biden may need to win the election in a landslide in order to successfully declare victory on Election Day. If the election is remotely close, the potential for courts to get involved may wind up tipping the scales in favor of the incumbent president.
Taylor Smith
Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu …
