NFC South Week 11 Betting Preview: Falcons vs Saints Odds and Pick

Things heat up in the NFC South for Week 11 as the Atlanta Falcons take on the New Orleans Saints in a key divisional battle.

The big storyline heading into this matchup is the injury to Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees. The future HOF QB will be out indefinitely as he deals with broken ribs and a collapsed lung suffered in last weekend’s game against the 49ers.

Can the Saints keep marching to victory without Brees or will the Falcons score a big upset in the Big Easy? Kickoff inside the Mercedes Benz Superdome is at 1PM ET.

Falcons vs Saints Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams	Spread	Money Lines	Totals
Atlanta Falcons	+4.5 (-105)	+190	Over 51 (-110)
New Orleans Saints	-4.5 (-115)	-220	Under 51 (-110)

Betting Data	Atlanta Falcons	New Orleans Saints
2020 Record	3-6	7-2
2020 Home	1-4	4-1
2020 Away	2-2	3-1
2020 ATS	4-5	4-5
2020 ATS Home	1-4	2-3
2020 ATS Away	3-1	2-2
2020 O/U	5-4	7-2
2020 O/U Home	3-2	4-1
2020 O/U Away	2-2	3-1

Falcons vs Saints NFL Game Preview

These divisional rivals have played against each other 102 times. The Falcons lead the all-time series with a 53-49 record. However, it’s the Saints that have won four of the last five meetings. Surprisingly, the Falcons are 26-25 at New Orleans all-time.

• The Atlanta Falcons (3-6) is coming off a Bye where they got an extra week to prepare for the Saints. The Falcons have won three of their last four games since starting 0-5 and could be 4-5 if it weren’t for a last second loss to the Lions over that stretch. Can Atlanta get one game closer to .500 with a win this week?
• The New Orleans Saints (7-2) have won six straight games since starting off the year at 1-2. Three of those wins were against good teams like Tampa Bay, Chicago and Carolina. New Orleans is 4-1 at home, but will need backup QB Jameis Winston to play smart football while taking over for Drew Brees.

Head to Head Betting Trends

• Saints are 6-4 SU in last 10 games
• Saints are 7-3 ATS in last 10 meetings
• The Under is 6-3-1 in last 10 matchups
• Atlanta is 1-4 SU in last five games
• Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in last five matchups

Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends

• 7-3 SU in last 10 NFC South games
• 2-0 SU following a Bye Week
• 10-17 SU in last 27 dome games
• 4-2 SU after two re more wins in a row
• 7-1 ATS in last eight road games
• 2-0 ATS following a Bye Week
• Under is 4-2 in last six games
• Under is 4-1 in last five NFC games

New Orleans Saints Betting Trends

• 6-0 SU in last six games
• 5-0 SU in last five NFC games
• 6-2 SU as a favorite this season
• 17-7 SU in last 24 home games
• 21-8 SU in last 29 dome games
• 10-2 SU in last 12 November games
• 13-2 SU when playing against a losing team
• 4-1 ATS in last five NFC South games
• 8-4 ATS in last 12 November games
• 3-5 ATS as a favorite this year
• 11-4 ATS when playing against a losing team
• Over is 4-1 in last five home games
• Over is 7-2 in last nine overall games

The Saints opened as a 7 point favorite over the Falcons, but that line has come down to range of 4.5 to 5 points in favor of New Orleans. Make sure to shop around the NFL betting sites to get a higher spread if you are taking Atlanta.

The Over/Under opened at 51 points and has move up and down from 50 to 51.5 points over the last few days. Most online betting sites have the O/U listed at 51 total points.

Free NFL Sports Bet and Game Prediction: Falcons +4.5 (-105)

It’s true, the Saints have gone 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams, but their average scores are very close. The Falcons have averaged 25.2ppg and the Saints have averaged 26.4ppg in the last 10 head to head matchups.

On the season, the Saints average 30.1ppg and the Falcons average 27ppg. Furthermore, the Saints give up 23.7ppg and the Falcons give up 27.9ppg. All of these scoring averages for head to head matchups and the 2020 season are within the 4.5 point spread for this Week 11 contest.

The Saints defense is great against the run, but they’re not as good against the pass as they allow 250.9 passing ypg. The Falcons have the 2^nd best passing offense at 305.1 yards per game. I really like this matchup for Atlanta as I believe they will find success through the air on Sunday.

.@drewbrees has his “top medical” team looking after him after suffering a collapsed lung and broken ribs 🥰 pic.twitter.com/ur5vMenjnG

— ESPN (@espn) November 17, 2020

On the flip side, Atlanta has had one of the worst defenses this season especially against the pass as they’ve allowed 322.6 yards per game through the air. But, they won’t be facing Drew Brees this weekend. Instead, they will be facing Jameis Winston.

Last weekend when Winston came in for an injured Brees, he went 6-of-10 for 63 yards and 2 sacks. Last year as a starter, Winston led the league in interceptions. He might have matured in his short time with New Orleans, but I doubt it’s to the point where he leads this team to a victory.

Atlanta has a deceptively good rush defense that allows 99.7 ypg. I expect the Falcons to stack the box in order to stop Saints RB Alvin Kamara, while also forcing Winston to beat them.

Until I see Winston win a game as the Saints starter, I can’t pick New Orleans to cover a spread. Especially one that’s as high as 5 points.

The Saints have gone 6-2 SU as a betting favorite this year, but they’re just 3-5 ATS in those contests. Atlanta is coming off a bye week where they’re 2-0 SU the last two seasons. Additionally, Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games and 2-2 SU on the road this season.

I’m taking the Falcons and the points. Furthermore, I wouldn’t be surprised if they win this game outright.

Falcons vs Saints Betting Recap:

• Oddsmaker: BetOnline
• Moneylines: Falcons (+190) vs Saints (-220)
• Spread: Saints -4.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: 51 total points (-110)
• Prediction: Falcons 27 – Saints 24