Billy Joe Saunders vs Martin Murray Betting Preview, Odds and Pick

On Friday, December 4^th, DAZN and Sky Sports will air an exciting boxing event live from The SSE Arena in Wembley, London, UK. The main event of the night is a WBO super middleweight title fight as Billy Joe Saunders defends his belt against Martin Murray.

The co-featured bout is a WBA world lightweight title eliminator as James Tennyson takes on Josh O’Reilly. Also on the card is the unbeaten Zach Parker facing Cesar Nunez.

Online sportsbooks have released odds for some of the fights. Let’s step into the ring to examine these odds, identify any value and KO these predictions.

Zach Parker vs Cesar Nunez

• Zach Parker (NA)
• Cesar Nunez (NA)

As of this writing, boxing betting sites have yet to release odds for this bout. However, if you look at each fighter’s recent contests, you will see that Parker has been a betting favorite for the last several years while Nunez has been the underdog.

I expect Parker to be a heavy favorite in this matchup probably in the -3000 to -5000 range while Nunez will be a massive underdog in the +750 to +2000 range.

Parker vs Nunez Preview

Nunez might only have two career losses, but they’ve both come in 2019. In fact, he’s 1-2-1 in his last four fights. Nunez last competed in February and won via 2^nd round TKO over a fighter that was 4-5-2.

Last year, he lost to Edgar Berlanga in the 1^st round via TKO and to Vincent Feigenbutz via 8^th round TKO. This will be his 4^th fight of 10 rounds or longer. He’s 2-1 in the three previous 10 round contests as he went the full distance in his two wins.

In reality, this bout is all about Zach Parker as this is a “keep busy” fight. Parker is ranked 2^nd in the WBO and 4^th in the IBF super middleweight division.

His goal is to win this fight and cement a mandatory title shot against Billie Joe Saunders, provided that Saunders wins in the main event of this fight as expected:

“I’m here and I’m ready to go again. Everyone knows I’m in the game to win world titles and fight on big shows. I’m ranked by the WBO as Billy Joe Saunders mandatory, he knows who I am, and I’m coming for him. It’s my dream to bring a World Title back to Derby and I’ve worked really hard with my team to get into a place where we’re not far from a shot at that.”

Parker is unbeaten in his career and last fought in March where he scored a highlight reel 11^th round TKO over a highly touted Rohan Murdock who was 24-0 at the time. The win earned Parker the WBO international super middleweight title.

It really is hard to imagine a scenario where Parker doesn’t win this fight. He’s clearly the better overall fighter and on the rise. I don’t see Nunez making it the full 10 rounds.

Take Parker to win via TKO somewhere in the latter rounds of this contest.

James Tennyson vs Josh O’Reilly

• James Tennyson (NA)
• Josh O’Reilly (NA)

The co-main event is a 12 round WBA lightweight title eliminator as the 10^th ranked James Tennyson takes on the 8^th ranked Josh O’Reilly. Tennyson is also ranked 7^th in the WBO and 13^th in the IBF. As of this writing, there are no available odds for this contest.

Despite O’Reilly having the unbeaten record, I expect Tennyson to be the slight favorite for this fight. He’s been a betting favorite for the last two years ever since his bout against Tevin Farmer 26 months ago. There’s no betting data for O’Reilly, which is another sign that he will be the underdog.

Tennyson vs O’Reilly Preview

Josh O’Reilly is undefeated in his career and holds the North American lightweight title along with his Top 10 ranking.

O’Reilly last fought 13 months ago and won via TKO in the 6^th round. Three of his last four fights have gone the distance. He’s never fought in a 12 round contest before.  He does have experience in 10 round fights where three of those four bouts went the distance.

James Tennyson has won five straight fights with all of them coming via TKO/KO. He last competed in August and defeated the previously unbeaten Gavin Gwynne via 6^th round TKO.

Tennyson does have world title fight experience. He competed against Tevin Farmer for the IBF super featherweight title in 2018, but lost via 5^th round TKO. Since that loss, Tennyson looks like a different fighter.

As for his opponent this week, Tennyson had the following to say about O’Reilly:

” Josh O’Reilly is undefeated and a great test for me, he is ranked 8 with the WBA and is their North American Champion, I am number 10 and the WBA International Champion, so we both have a lot to gain and it is a great achievement for us both to get this far.”

For Tennyson, this weekend’s eliminator is a stepping stone to bigger fights including a world title shot. With a win, he could get a Top 5 fight in early 2021 and set himself up for a WBA title shot later next year.

And, there’s really no reason to think that Tennyson won’t get the win this weekend. He has the big fight experience and has competed in five 12 round contests. His fight 13 months ago against Craig Evans went into the 11^th round.

Tennyson is a rugged fighter and I see him roughing up O’Reilly on the inside. From there, I think he can find a late round TKO. Either way, I see O’Reilly getting “eliminated” as Tennyson takes a big step towards another world title shot.

Billie Joe Saunders vs Martin Murray

• Billie Joe Saunders (-2250)
• Martin Murray (+950)

The undefeated WBO champ Billie Joe Saunders is a massive boxing betting favorite for this world title fight. His odds range from -1800 to -2350. He’s been the favorite in all of his fights over the last three years. Saunders was last an underdog three years ago against David Lemieux.

Murray is a large underdog with odds ranging from +800 to +1500. This is the first time in the last four years that Murray is not a betting favorite.

Saunders vs Murray Preview

These two men have a bit of a rivalry ever since they almost fought in 2018. In fact, this is the third time that these two fighters have been scheduled to fight. Murray says there’s no bad blood between them, but does believe that Saunders pulled out twice and that there’s unfinished business between them:

“There was no bad blood really between me and Billy to be honest, it was just a lot of frustration after he pulled out twice. That got left where it was, but we’ve definitely got some unfinished business. I’m expecting a hard fight and Billy Joe to be at his best, so I’ll be ready.”

Murray has won two fights in a row after dropping a majority decision to Hassan N’Dam two years ago. Murray has competed in world title fights before including a bout against GGG and losing via 11^th round TKO.

Saturday’s fight will be the second time that Murray has competed for the WBO world title. The first time came against Arthur Abraham five years ago. Murray lost via split decision. He had a point taken away from him in the 11^th round for holding.

Saunders Wants to See Who Can Back Up Their Comments

Although Murray seemed to take a diplomatic approach when talking about this fight, Saunders did not. He wants to see if Murray can back up the things he has said over the last few years:

“Martin and I were supposed to fight twice before but it didn’t happen either time. He said some stuff and so did I, so let’s see who can back it up. I’m enjoying training with Mark Tibbs. He’s incredibly knowledgeable in the sport of boxing and we are working on new stuff that we will show on the night.”

Saunders is fortunate that he gets a fight against someone who he has a bit of a “rivalry” against. That’s because he was in talks for a massive bout against Canelo Alvarez, but that fell through.

It would’ve been easy to feel disappointed and unmotivated moving forward. However, his promoter Eddie Hearn did a good job finding a matchup that would keep Saunders motivated and aggressive.

Saunders last fought 13 months ago and won via 11^th round KO over Marcelo Coceres who was unbeaten at the time. He’s gone the distance in five of his last seven fights.

Who Wins the WBO Super Middleweight Title?

I can see this fight going the distance as well. Murray is a tough out for anyone and it’s not like Saunders has been knocking out all of his opponents. In fact, he has just a 48% knockout rate.

Murray will have his moments in this contest, but I expect Saunders to pull away late and win this fight via unanimous decision. This will hopefully put him back into contention for another fight against Canelo or a unification bout against Caleb Plant.

Full Boxing Card

• (C)Billie Joe Saunders vs Martin Murray in a 12 round WBO super middleweight title fight
• James Tennyson vs Josh O’Reilly in a 12 round WBA lightweight title eliminator
• Zach Parker vs Cesar Nunez in a 10 round super middleweight bout