Avalanche vs Coyotes NHL Pick – March 22, 2021

We have a big 10-game NHL schedule to get our week started on this Monday evening, so let’s dive right into this Avalanche vs Coyotes pick and examine the latest live odds from the top hockey betting sites.

Avalanche vs Coyotes Betting Odds

Moneyline Betting Odds for Avalanche vs Coyotes

Team
Arizona Coyotes	+205
Colorado Avalanche	-229

Avs vs Yotes Spread Betting Odds

Team
Arizona Coyotes	+1.5 -135
Colorado Avalanche	-1.5 +115

Avalanche at Coyotes Over/Under Betting Odds

Team
Arizona Coyotes	O 5.5 -123
Colorado Avalanche	U 5.5 +112

Avalanche vs Coyotes NHL Pick Breakdown

Avalanche

Boy oh boy are these Avs on an absolute mission right now.

In a two-game set with the Coyotes from March 8-10, the Avs put 81 shots on goal to Arizona’s 28, yet both clubs scored four goals in that series. After scoring two in their next game against the Kings, the Avs’ offense has finally erupted while putting a wealth of rubber at the opposing netminder.

Over their last three games, Colorado has scored 19 goals — 6.33 per game — while averaging 44.3 shots per game. They actually have that same 44.3 shots-per-game average over their last six including peppering the ‘Yotes for 46 shots in a 2-1 OT win on March 10.

Now, the Avs rank first in the NHL with 35.2 shots per game on the season and sit tied for fifth with 3.34 goals per game on the season and 12th with a 24% clip on the power play. That power play is 4 for 7 over its last three games.

It was only a matter of time before this offense busted out and have they ever. The advanced metrics certainly back up the surface results as Colorado ranks first in scoring chances for/60, ninth in high-danger chances for/60 and first again in expected goals for/60 at 5v5 this season, as per Natural Stat Trick.

Not only are they dominating at the offensive end of the ice, but the defense has been among the league’s best as well.

How Do They Stack up on the Ice?

Overall, the Avs are tied for second with just 2.24 goals against per game on the season while sporting the NHL’s second-best penalty kill at 87.6%. They’ve allowed one goal over their last two games and one goal or less in five of their last six with two shutouts in that time.

At 5v5, the metrics are quite healthy as they rank first in scoring chances against/60, sixth in high-danger chances against/60 and first once again in expected goals against/60. Combine the offensive and defensive metrics and Colorado ranks first by a mile in expected goals for% at 5v5 with a mark of 58.98% on the season.

Of course, you don’t get such lavish defensive results without good goaltending and that’s what they’ve received from Philipp Gruabauer this season.

The third-year Avs goaltender has posted an eye-popping 1.74 GAA and .929 Sv% on the season across 25 appearances (24 starts) with a whopping five shutouts and an 18-7-0 mark along the way. Hard to believe he’s even lost seven games with those numbers, but an unlucky Avalanche offense earlier in the year would be why.

Now, this is a back-to-back situation here with these two teams set to meet again tomorrow night, so it’s possible Hunter Miska makes his sixth start of the season. The problem is the first five have not gone well at all.

Miska enters this one sporting a 4.16 GAA and .838 Sv% on the season and yielded four goals on just seven shots against the Ducks his last time out. He’s allowed nine goals on just 34 shots in the month of March (.735 Sv%).

It’s also hard to believe he’s going to be this bad moving forward. I mean, he worked to a stellar 2.48 GAA and .924 SV% in 26 American Hockey League contests last season and allowed just one goal in his lone AHL outing this season.

We’ll simply have to wait until closer to game time to find out who gets the nod for the road side tonight.

Coyotes

The struggling Coyotes snapped a five-game winless streak with a win over the Ducks on Saturday while finally snapping an offensive drought with a five-goal output in that one.

Previously, the ‘Yotes had scored just four goals over their previous five games while they’ve averaged just 22.7 shots per game over their last seven times, and as noted, just 14 in each of their last two games against these Avs.

The serious lack of offensive production of late has dropped Arizona to 27th in overall offense with 2.42 goals per game while their power play sits 23rd with an 18.3% clip.

After posting some quality underlying metrics earlier in the season, those numbers have also slipped as the season has moved along. At 5v5, the Coyotes rank 25th in scoring chances for/60, 14th in high-danger chances for/60 and 19th in expected goals for/60 so far this season. Their 2.60 goals/60 at 5v5 is above their 2.29 expected mark, so it’s not a big surprise to see their offense largely struggling of late.

The true surprise has been at the other end of the ice as the Coyotes’ defense has regressed in a big way this season. After ranking fourth with 2.65 goals against per game over the last two seasons combined, the Coyotes are tied for 16th with a 2.90 mark this season and the peripherals are not pretty.

Is Their Bite as Strong as Their Growl?

At 5v5, the ‘Yotes rank 25th in scoring chances against/60, 24th in high-danger chances for/60 and 25th once again in terms of expected goals against/60 on the season. Their 2.41 goals against/60 is above their 2.16 expected mark, but I’m not so sure the defense is in a position to improve much given how many chances they’ve been yielding this season.

As Darcy Kuemper remains out week-to-week at the moment, it’s been Antti Raanta and Adin Hill largely splitting starts, but Hill has seen more action of late with Raanta dealing with some injury woes as well.

Like with Colorado, we don’t know who starts tonight for Arizona. Raanta is seemingly healthy again, and was excellent in turning aside 27 of 28 shots in the team’s 5-1 victory on Saturday over the Ducks and owns a 3.11 GAA and .916 Sv% on the season.

If Hill gets the nod, he’ll carry a 2.78 GAA and .908 Sv% into action across five appearances for the season, but has just one win in that time.

It’s extremely safe to assume each netminder will get a start over the next 48 hours.

Avalanche vs Coyotes NHL Pick

Colorado is certainly a boulder rolling downhill at the moment. With six straight victories in their pocket entering this one and 19 goals over their last three games, they’re the hottest team the NHL has to offer. While their shooting rates have greatly improved over the course of the win streak, they certainly owe this Coyotes team one or two after scoring just four goals on those 81 shots (4.9% shooting rate) over that two-game set.

After scoring just four goals in a five-game stretch, the ‘Yotes broke out with five over the Ducks their last time out, but man is this Colorado defense also on a whole new level right now.

It would be nice if Grubauer got the nod in the first of two games here, but we simply don’t know at this point. What we do know is the Avs are the far superior teams and absolutely firing on all cylinders at the moment.

It’s largely been a one-goal league this season, but I see an opportunity to hop on the puckline and take the Avs -1.5 at solid +115 odds tonight.