Bold 2021 Super Bowl Betting Predictions

We have an awful lot to look forward to in Super Bowl 55. Aside from the obvious QB-related storylines, this should also just be a fun matchup. The last time they played each other, Tyreek Hill topped 200 receiving yards in the first quarter before Tom Brady led the Buccaneers to a near-comeback victory in the fourth quarter. If the Super Bowl rematch is even close to as fun as that game was, we’ll be in for a treat.

Everyone has different takes when it comes to how the game will actually play out. You have countless options when it comes to actually wagering on the game. All week long, you have probably heard plenty of pundits shouting at one another about why the Chiefs or Buccaneers will win or why Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady will take home Super Bowl MVP. Yawn.

It’s time to get bold. People can make their best guesses, but nobody really knows what’s going to happen on Super Bowl Sunday. It’s time to make some bold calls. Here are five bold betting predictions for Super Bowl 55.

1. Mahomes Will Lead the Chiefs in Rushing Yards

The Buccaneers’ defense is full of Pro Bowlers, especially in the front-seven. The secondary isn’t quite as talented, but Tampa Bay has ranked as the stingiest run defense in the NFL all season long. The Bucs have allowed a paltry 1,289 rushing yards this season, which is easily the best mark in the league. The Colts (1,448 yards allowed) finished a distant second.

The Kansas City Chiefs couldn’t get much going on the ground the last time they faced Tampa. Kansas City was held to 87 yards rushing in that game, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s 37 yards leading the way. Fortunately, Mahomes threw for nearly 500 yards, so the lack of success in the run game didn’t matter in the end.

The last time the @Chiefs faced the Buccaneers… Tyreek Hill went OFF.

7 catches for 203 yards for @cheetah… in the FIRST QUARTER. pic.twitter.com/bfGYUmOkEF

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) February 5, 2021

I’m not expecting the Chiefs’ committee of running backs to find much running room on Sunday, either. Edwards-Helaire recently returned from an injury, while Darrel Williams is hardly a game-breaking talent. Le’Veon Bell is more washed up than Robin Thicke at this stage of his career.

The Chiefs don’t need to run the ball well to win on Sunday. Mahomes isn’t a great rushing quarterback, but he has shown the ability to do damage if he gets out into the open field. Mahomes scampered for a memorable touchdown in last year’s Super Bowl, and I think there’s a good chance he winds up leading the team in rushing on Sunday. That’s due in part to the fact that none of the running backs will be able to get anything going, of course.

I’m willing to bet the over on Mahomes’ rushing yardage prop of 18.5.

2. There Will Be a Defensive Touchdown Scored

Mahomes and Brady are garnering the vast majority of the headlines heading into Super Bowl 55, and with good reason. This may well be the best quarterback matchup we’ve ever seen in a Super Bowl. However, it’s fair to assume that one team’s defense will wind up making a huge play that ultimately turns the tide and helps decide the game.

You can get pretty favorable +185 odds on there being at least one defensive touchdown scored in Super Bowl 55. Neither of these teams ranked near the top of the league in turnovers, but there is still reason for optimism here. Brady did throw three interceptions against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game, while Mahomes threw a pair of picks in last year’s Super Bowl.

These teams combined to score three defensive touchdowns all season, but we have some capable playmakers on both sides. Jason Pierre-Paul is going to wreak havoc on the Chiefs’ backfield, especially considering KC is down their starting left tackle in Eric Fisher. The Bucs’ linebacking tandem of Devin White and Lavonte David is arguably the best in football. Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Jones are two of the most talented defenders in the league, and you can expect both to make an impact in this one on the Kansas City side of things.

All eyes will be on the offenses, but don’t overlook the possibility that one of the defenses comes through with a score. Take a shot on the +185 odds here.

3. Leonard Fournette Will Top 100 Rushing Yards

Brady and the Bucs’ passing game have gotten Tampa Bay to the Super Bowl for the second time in franchise history, but don’t overlook the team’s talented duo of running backs. While Ronald Jones spent most of the season as the No. 1 back, Leonard Fournette has gotten a heavier workload of late. Fournette has gotten double-digit carries in each of the Bucs’ three playoff games thus far.

While he has just one 100-yard game on his track record for the entire season, I think Fournette will wind up being a huge part of Tampa’s attack in the Super Bowl. The Bucs’ defense has been excellent against the run this season, but the same can’t be said of the Chiefs’. Kansas City was bottom-10 in the league in terms of rushing yards allowed. KC has allowed at least 100 rushing yards in a game seven times through 18 games on the year.

Leonard Fournette has not fumbled since Week 17 of 2017 (613 carries) pic.twitter.com/rb4fCMqgdB

— PFF (@PFF) February 5, 2021

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn’t run the ball often in their previous meeting with the Chiefs because Kansas City jumped out to a huge early lead. I’d expect Tampa Bay to commit more to running the football and controlling the clock this time around. Keeping Mahomes off the field should be one of the Bucs’ top priorities. One way they can accomplish that goal is by keeping the ball on the ground with Fournette, who should be able to take advantage of one of the Chiefs’ few areas of weakness.

The rushing yards over/under for Fournette has been set at just 50.5 on Sunday. I’ll be happy to hammer the over there at the -120 odds. If you can find a prop on whether any player will top 100 rushing yards, I’d take the “yes” side of that wager.

4. Super Bowl 55 Will Be the Highest-Scoring Super Bowl Ever

The over/under for Super Bowl 55 has consistently hovered around 56 points since the lines first became public. These two teams combined to score 51 points in their previous meeting, but I think we’ll see a lot more scoring this time around.

The highest-scoring Super Bowl ever was Super Bowl 29 when the 49ers crushed the Chargers by the score of 49-26. That’s a total of 75 points, but I think Super Bowl 55 has the potential to fly past that number. The Chiefs and Bucs were two of the best offensive teams in football all season long.

Tampa Bay’s defense is exploitable through the air, which happens to be the Chiefs’ obvious area of strength. The Chiefs’ defense was pretty poor in all facets, so I think the Buccaneers should have little issue moving the ball up and down the field as long as they can avoid turning it over.

Super Bowl 53 between the Patriots and Rams was given the highest over/under in Super Bowl history (57.5), but the game turned into a defensive slugfest. With Bill Belichick nowhere to be seen, though, I think this year’s game actually lives up to its lofty expectations. Bet the over on 56.5 points in what will be the highest-scoring game in Super Bowl history.

5. Super Bowl 55 Will Go Into Overtime

With a spread of just 3.5 points, most Super Bowl betting sites are expecting this to be a hotly-contested game.

The Chiefs have gotten the majority of the public money at this point, but would anybody be surprised if Tom Brady won another Super Bowl?

No. No, they would not.

There has actually been just one overtime game in Super Bowl history. That was back in Super Bowl 51, when Brady led the Patriots to a dramatic come-from-behind victory over the Falcons. You can get good value on Super Bowl 55 becoming the second Super Bowl to ever head to an extra session. Most sites have “yes” on overtime listed in the +1000 range.

SUPER BOWL THRILLER! New England comes back to send Super Bowl 51 in to overtime. #SuperBowl https://t.co/PdXiloYLxv pic.twitter.com/4vJfGXZhtL

— ABC13 Houston (@abc13houston) February 6, 2017

Just 3.9% of regular-season games went to OT this past season, but most NFL games didn’t have point spreads as close as this one does. Overtime is a lot more likely in a contest between a pair of evenly-matched teams, which is what we should get on Sunday.

The game should be close, so who’s to say it won’t go into OT? Take a low-dollar flier on those attractive plus-money odds.